Member Info for CaneToad

This afternoon could be interesting if BTC holds/rises. Happy to have rebuilt my ARB position this morning.

Chaebol: "Canetoad, so another 6 months of manipulation. And then millions more discounted adr shares…………"

Get a life mate. I've hated the manipulation, but I've still managed to trade it ~30 times. If you don't like the share, then you can go and bother one of the other 1000+ LSE boards...

@Richy: "maybe a little early to tell but seems ok so far today not the massive drop some thought would happen"

I think you'll find that my prediction (FX Conversion of US closing price) was spot-on. As i said, it could be boosted by BTC or ARB investors, but it definitely drooped *precisely* to the level that I said.

@Chaebol: "Canetoad, so another 6 months of manipulation. And then millions more discounted adr shares…………"

I foolishly read an old Fool article on Riot a while back, where they basically said that most of the investors didn't care about continual dilutions, because the average holding time was 5-days. i.e. most 'investors' were actualyl traders. Despite the passion shown here, I suspect that most here don't care either. I'm primarily here to trade ARB as a BTC proxy, so I don't really care either - to an extent. It would be good if ARB started to follow BTC a bit more, but heck, it's still been a very profitable share to trade!

Chaebol: "Arbkf needs to be delisted, and the shares places into ADR NASDAQ, the prospectus stated they reman listed up until December 31st 2021"

I can't see how they could have delisted the OTC shares until NASDAQ wqas up and running. That's just the way things work. It's going to be gone within 6m. Frankfurt will probably go as well. The long-term target must be a primary listing on NASDAQ, but this has been a good first step.

Mary: "btw did anyone look at AVON yesterday when I mentioned it."

I did. It looks expensive and boring. Way overpriced compared to BAE etc. Just my opinion.

@Economist: "After all hype - ARB has flopped, limp, struggling to keep it up..... Pardon the puns"

Oh man...give it a chance. It's all in your hands. You had the opportunity to downsize beforehand or to ride it out. It looks like a good day for BTC.

Misterbeck: "Bought at chunk at 128 and sold at 138. easy money in just 5 minutes"

Hey, nice trade!

TheBuyer: "Canetoad. Ok then please share your analysis since you predict so precisely…… If it’s there then share otherwise stop influencing please ….."

Regarding my 'prediction' last night:

"From what I now see, ARBK has closed at $16.87, i.e. $1.687 for each ARB share, which is ~123p. Unless something very strange happens, I would expect us to open around that price, i.e. about 18% below the London close. That could change, depending on what happens in the auction period."

My 'prediction' is almost exactly in line with what Frankfurt is trading at. I was just stating facts. Anybody that thinks this was trying to 'influence' people needs to go and learn about the stock market. FYI: It was not a prediction. It's just the US price multiplied by the GBP-USD exchange rate.

@Thebuyer: "Well I personally think there is a hidden message there …. I am not having that …. Sorry"

You commenting on my message? There's no hidden message.

From what I now see, ARBK has closed at $16.87, i.e. $1.687 for each ARB share, which is ~123p. Unless something very strange happens, I would expect us to open around that price, i.e. about 18% below the London close. That could change, depending on what happens in the auction period.

If the BTC Gods are smiling on us, maybe that drop will be erased quickly. Either way, I think the value of the IPO is undeniable and the extra money is going to benefit us massively.

Good luck!

"Argo Blockchain Plc operates as a data centric management company. The firm is committed to powering blockchain technology as it continues to grow and influence global economy."

It's a bit wishy-washy to my ear. The other NASDAQ data is zlso not that inspiring:

P/E Ratio (TTM)
594.18(09/23/21)

EPS (TTM)
0.03

In Stockopedia, I see P/E (12m Forecast Rolling) = 12.3. Admittedly, the 2020 figure in Stocko is 364, but I'm surprised by NASDAQ showing 594.18 as the P/E. That's a bit rich. Hopefully, people will do their own research.

"As it stands now Argo will open @ £1.19 tomorrow. You must be really enthralled and excited."
"So we are just temporarily down 5% in the first 30 minutes of trading"

From what I see, ARB will open at ~125p on Friday, which implies a 15% drop. Maybe UK investors will pump this up a bit or maybe the MM's will feel sorry for all the loyal LTHs in the UK! That's just my opinion as an 'idiot' trader who reduced his position last night, added at 10% lower today and who plans to add significantly if the opportunity arises tomorrow!

BTC is looking good at the moment, so maybe we'll do well tomorrow.

Good luck everybody!

When adding a big chunk of ASOS last week, I asked myself, do I believe in a random TA commentator from LSE, who was most likely short the stock, or the consensus price target of 24 brokers, with a target, which at the time, was 90% above the current price + the incredible fundamentals that I see in Stockopedia?

I added...

@dimi: "I remember we were discussing on here about value investors becoming interested in ASC at some point."

Yeah, I think that was me. Some of the writers on Stockopedia have positions in ASOS, e.g. Paul Scott, and those guys bought much higher than this. Paul is highly regarded and no doubt a lot of people will follow him into ASOS + via the link that you've provided.

I already have a decent position in ASOS, but will look to add once I see unequivocal confirmation of a change of direction...

@28jac: "can maybe explain more about the differences for ADR versus ADS if they have some USA stock market previous experience?"

I don't think there's any difference. I always called these things an ADR (American Depository Receipt). As far as I understand, it's just a different name for the same thing. i.e. a foreign share, converted into USD. In theory, its price is just the foreign price times the FX rate.

As I mentioned a few times, it's my experience, that US investors don't like these as much as a 'native US share'. They think of them as 'foreign' shares and most Americans are suspicious of 'foreign' things. Hopefully, the end target is to have a native NASDAQ listing, like RIOT, etc.

Not sure what to think about AVON. I've held it before and it was like watching the grass grow. It still looks expensive @ 18.7 P/E (12m Forecast Rolling). This also looks expensive to the likes of BAE (P/E = 11.4). What is attractive here, apart from the technical bounce off low RSI?

To be fair, I've traded the range on IOF many times and I was suspicious seeing this rise, until it broke above the background level. I like to tell myself that it's going to recover this time. Have seen many false dawns here, though without any doubt, it's the best it's looked in a long time.

"The chance to drive this lower has gone IMO. "

I'd say that it definitely becomes risky, holding onto those shorts. This looks like it's bounced and more PIs are appearing. Any re-rate could see it rise steeply, let alone results.

All other crypto miners up again today (albeit only modstly); ARB down 10%. And some LTHs are calling traders idiots for downsizing their positions last night... I've just bought back my ARB. As I said last night, there is something not right in the movements of this share and I'm being cautious until I understand it.

Looks like we're having to clear out some tired long-term holders; good to see there's some demand to soak that up, at least for now.