Member Info for CaneToad

FYI: GOG has been on a breakout for a week now, rising every day. Results are later this week. Totally off-radar.

@Directive: "On second thought though, I might jump right back in ..."

Yep, I just did that. Painful, to buy at a higher price, but that is trading... Fortunate, that I keep another tranche running. Who can ever understand the market!

@DIective: "Of course, when i sold, it has to rise :)"

Yeah, I did the same. That usually gets the reverse happening... not to worry, this has a long way to go yet.

@Don: I get what you're saying. I don't disagree with most of your points.

In my opinion, the only people that don't care about fundamentals are day traders and idiots. Day traders don't care, becaue they're going to sell them within hours of buying. But most day traders lose money, so it's not something that I'm going to emulate. I'm a trader. I trade a lot, but I know that I could not be consistently profitable if I had to trade intra-day. I appreciate that some people can (maybe 5-10% of day traders) - good luck to them! If I could work out a good strategy, I'd be all over Cine and the rest of them.

It's always frustrating waiting for a share to move. Especially for ASOS and BOO. But I'm prepared to bet that it's going to eventually happen.

@Conish. As I've mentioned here many times, I am bullish on RMM. I do NOT want them to drop. I want them to RISE. Only an idiot would want the price to drop. I have NO plans to buy more RMM just because they drop. I would only buy if the fundamentals had also improved.

Regarding the profitability. Here are the figures from Refinitiv (owned by LSE) and used in Stockopedia (figures in $m):
2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
-12.8, -2.74, -4.15, -20.0, -13.5, -1.76

i.e. EVERY year shown is a loss. I admit that it is possible that they might have made a profit prior to 2015, but I would say that 5y is a good indication. Furthermore, here is what Peter Rose of Brandon Hill Capital says about Rambler:

"Rambler Metals (Mkt Cap ~£24M) produced circa 4,000T in 2018 from an underground operation in Newfoundland,
Canada. The Ming mine enjoys high copper grades and by-product credits but makes a loss predominantly because of its
small scale and ore has to be transported over 44km to the mill. Whilst it is in phased growth it is only targeting peak
production of circa 10,000T Cu in 2024."

Good luck everybody.

19 brokers for this stock. Consensus target price is 444.94p, i.e. 70% upside. I have no interest in what 1 out of 19 brokers say. With the slavery story now receding and solid progress being made, I can't see why this wouldn't continue to improve, as long as the market sentiment holds up.

I challenge you to name another company with this much upside when there are more than 20 brokers.

@dan: "Asos needs to release a proactive M&A strategy it can’t continue like it has"

Seriously. It would be very difficult to find a company growing revenue and profit faster than ASOS and BOOHOO. They're makign boat-loads of money. They're not expensive anymore.

There are 24 brokers for ASOS. The consensus target price is 80% above the current level.

@Fuku: "I think labelling it as 'ultra-high-risk penny-stock gamble' is a bit strong to be fair!"

Nope. It's accurate. They've never made a profit. Stockopedia has them with a StockRank of 18 (range is 0-100, with 100 best). The finances are shaky. They have a long history of shareholder destruction. I'm happy to invest here in small size though as I'm bullish on copper and I see decent upside *if* they can get funding and *if* they can start making a profit. But they do not yet deserve a large capital allocation, because even with all this funding, it's going to be a very long time until they can pay a dividend and the market is not going to value them higher than a P/E of 3-4 until they do that. Have you looked at what the price of Lundin, Central Asia Metals, Capstone, Atalaya have done lately?

I would only look to buy more RMM shares after seeing (a) the funding signed, (b) the mine plan progressing well and the (c) the latest finances. Anything else makes this an 'ultra-high-risk penny-stock gamble' rather than a 'copper play'. There are lots of good copper plays which are at rock-bottom prices, including Capstone, Lundin and Atalaya and all of these have impeccable finances and cheap valuations.

@tigris: OK. thanks. So this is going to behave a bit like a utility, but with some risk attached. I'm wondering what the catalyst will be for price to increase.

My first time here. It looks interesting. Clearly there are some problems though. From what I see:

- They sell FIXED price gas in Morocco, so they're not going to benefit from the recent rise
- They've not been profitable for some time
- Management are inept / paying themselves too much?

What are the other problems?

@Uggy: I'm confident that there are lots of things happening.

I cannot see why anybody would want to delay the progress. There are no-doubt lots of complications that we don't have visibility on. I agree though, it's *painfully* slow and my own patience is being tested.

They definitely need to achieve more in the next 5y than they did in the last 5, as they have lost money every year so far. At some point, even the most patient investors will walk away if they can't somehow start to make money.

@Mary: don't be too scared of @Portsche. He's just trying to frighten some newbies, but I don't think there are any here.

I agree with you. I follow a similar approach. Even if there was a raise, for which there is no evidence that I can see, I doubt it would be very big and I'd participate, if I had the opportunity.

@raxfactor: "The SP performance over the last six months has been disappointing"

I completely agree. It's not just Atalaya though. Most of the mid-cap copper producers are suffering the same problem. e.g. Capstone, Lundin, Central Asia Metals. It doesn't make any sense. It's as though they've all stagnated. I'm holding though as I suspect they could start to move soon. Atalaya would have to double to catch up with those others though and I can see that happening if they start paying a dividend. It's incredible that people will chase the unprofitable miners with huge debts and poor balance sheets, when Atalaya is so cheap and is so solid.

Now that it's profitable with a half-decent balance sheet, it must surely be a takeover target for Croda or Elementis. I'd think this would fit nicely within Croda. They could buy it out of their morning tea fund..

@Porsche, presumably you're shorting FSJ as well... how's it working out?

(Oh boy...)

Oh buy, Dr Doom has shown up here as well...

@Borotosh: "I am one of those LTH’s who bought in at that dizzy high price,"

If I was you I'd average-down.

That's just what I'd do. I'm NOT offering advice here (as I am BIASED and NOT qualified).

Personally, I never enter a trade unless I have the funds and appetite to add more to that trade OR to exit entirely if the situation deteriorates.