Member Info for CaneToad

Total Shares: 43,177,390
Traded Today: 456,025
Volume Today%: 1.06%

It's significantly higher than ADV, but this is not a big selloff. It's tiny.

@CHRI55: "I agree, rail is dominant part."

In revenue - YES. In profitability - NO.

I am gobsmacked that this has been known about for some time, but was not released to the market, allowing the share price to ramp up. At the least, it is a serious failure of their fiduciary responsibility and other directors must go.

From what I can tell, the revenue breakdown is:

GTR: 61%
SouthEastern: 36%
Germany: 2%
Nordics: 1%

i.e. the lost SouthEastern franchise represents about 36% of total rail revenue, or about 26% of total group revenue. Taking pre-covid figures, I'm guessing that it represents somewhere in the vicinity of 10-15% of operating profits. That's just a quick and dirty calculation and might be wrong. Please do your own research as my figure could be wrong.

I've looked at the 2019 and 2020 figures.

In summary, Rail is a big part of revenue, but it's not a big part of profit. i.e. Rail is about 75% of Revenue, but for profits, in 2019 and 2020, it was 11.42% (2020) and 20.97% (2019). I'm trying to get a handle on what percent of Rail, the SE Rail Franshise was.

From what I can tell, Rail is the dominant part of their revenue, but it's a small contribution to profits. Just starting to get to grips with the finances though and my conclusion could be wrong. I'm not an accountant...

It's clear that none of the analysts knew about this. I see that UBS were promoting Go Ahead as late as yesterday:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/961441/go-ahead-a-buy-again-says-ubs-as-bus-recovery-gathers-speed-961441.html

@Moonman. "with the utmost respect, you haven't been here before with GOG"

Yes, I agree. You are right.

I am researching it. If dishonesty is at the core, then I will not hold it.

OK, I don't like the look of this. I was 'happy' if it was incompetence, but it looks to me like this is an issue with dishonesty/fraud; the SFO will be involved. This is like Petrofac. It could bring into question all other franchises and they will want an audit.

Anybody know how big a percentage that South East Rail is of GOG?

I've been here before with GOG. I have no plans whatsoever of selling now. Obviously with a crystal ball, I should have offloaded yesterday.

Yep, it's not good. No idea about the fine.

With coal having quadrupled in price since August 2020, surely APF are making a fortune?

Coal has gone up 13% in the past 24 FFS and I understand that China has virtually run out.

@easyp: "The market quite underwhelmed.....disappointing."

Not at all. The results looked great. It's the price of gold that's the problem. All gold miners have the same problem.

@Mary: I apologize. I definitely wasn't referring to you. I am guessing that it's you buying here...

So you have a large portfolio. Out of curiosity, do you hedge it in any way? I'm thinking of that myself (NQX put options), but I've been hanging off, because it's so darn hard to get the timing right.

It's been a nice bounce Friday/Today. If I can work out what's causing it I might be inclined to double-down. Call me a whimp, but I like to see an improvement in the fundamentals before I commit to a 'full-size' position.

@BiggL: "Not to overlook the price of copper, another game changer!"

Sure. I agree. It is a game changer. I'm a massive copper bull. I have significant holdings in Atalaya, CAML, Lundin and Capstone. But all of those companies are loaded with cash and/or have no debt. I am also very hopeful about RMM, if they can get over the current hump in the road. If the RMM fundamentals improve, I'd have no hesitation in sinking a large wad into it.

@Cornish: " You didn't say every year shown on stockopedia"

This is nothing about Stockopedia. It's about the official LSE/Refinitive data. But thanks for pointing out that there were profitable years prior to 2015. To be fair, I think that 5 unprofitable years in a row is probably the only relevant matter history-wise though. Generally speaking, I would discount anything that happened more than 5 years ago.

Incredible - nobody here! What an amazing day/week.

I think it's down to strong market sentiment (for unknown reasons).
Lots of sectors are really moving today. e.g. everything in transport is moving.

@eviking: "It's all hot air 53p plus lol"

Crikey. It's really pumping. Not seen it this strong for a long time.

@GoCPI: "I'll pass- transportation sector is still a bit of a hit and miss for me"

Yep. No what you mean. I'm still cautious of airlines especially.

I've been in CPI since early 2020. Superb trading share, but so is GOG. Both have been terrible dogs if caught at the wrong time (been there done that as well...). Nice breakout today.