Member Info for CaneToad

@HarChris: "It will end 2021 with zero debt and about £100m cash. "

I get that. The valuation is based on 'future' earninsg though. Without covid, the earnings were a tiny fraction of today. The current cash balance could easily disappear into staff costs and R&D, e.g. corporate bonuses. Personally, I think covid is here for a very long time, probably forever. The fact that they've now got a big sales team in the US an contacts with the Who tells that story. The problem is that it's being gamed like a casino. It's too risky for funds to invest in at the moment. We need better clarity on the future.

@Lubumbashi: "This is not a Covid share any more. The Covid phase ran out a year ago and lots of people made a lot of money, well done, and well done GM for recognising opportunity. NCYT is now back to being a leading diagnostics company."

I'm trying to understand the implications of what you're saying. From what I can see, pre-covid, this share was worth ~10p.

It's becoming a speculative play-thing of leveraged day-traders at the moment, rather than an investable company. What am I missing? FYI: I'm long/underwater. Highly unlikely to buy any more shares until I understand where the company is going and for this dreadful UK contract disaster to be resolved. That sounds like a total managment disaster on the NCYT side from what I can tell.

@2phevs: "low lying fruit picker": To be fair, I'm also a 'low lying fruit picker', but I *try* not to talk-down a stock. If you find me doing this, then please let me know... it's a somewhat dodgy practice in my view. I make enough money from fair dealing and hope that I don't have to stoop that that...

Well, at least it's positive. A lot of the rise is due to the excessive spread though.

@Danf: "Crazy drop out the blue and no news?"

It's most likely due to this:

"Chinese fast-fashion giant Shein is making use of tax perks to undercut some British online retailers, the Financial Mail on Sunday said citing a major report to which it had been given access. Despite having operated in Europe for under seven years, it was able to use its tax advantages to sell at a significant lower price than British rivals including Boohoo and Asos."

@Porsche1946: Crikey, some people must have no life at all, to only appear when a share price drops... Successful investors don't have time to post this junk to low-traffic boards.

MrTibbles: I agree that all the improvements you've mentioned will help the CEY share price. The problem is that most of the good gold miners are debt-free and highly profitable. They've all suffered in the past 6m.

Auson: In 2015 BTC was trading at $200, while it's now over $60,000. In that same time, gold has moved from $1,200 to $1,800; it's now back to levels seen in 2011. Do you see the problem? I have no plans whatsoever to sell my CEY, but I'd need to see a substantial increase in the gold price + improvements at Sukari before buying any more.

@goldome: "I would brighten up, so much more to life ..."

Stocks are an investment. If they don't (eventually) rise, there is no point in owning them, that's unless you collect them like stamps and love researching them for that reason. I don't. The performance of gold has been poor, at a time when it should be 'shining'. If it doesn't improve, you will see much larger outflows from gold ETFs. Personally, I believe gold will rise from here, but I've been telling myself that for 6m and I'm in the minority...

You can research the CEY fundamentals all you like, but without the gold price rising, CEY will not rise. I don't think many people here get that...

@Thunder: Prior to today, P/E was 15 on a trailing basis, which is not dirt cheap. I'm definitely not rushing to buy more at the moment. Would consider if/when the business improves or if the price drops to ridiculous levels. Definitely no plans to try and catch a falling knife.

@CHRIS55: "I'm more than happy for you to take this one on your own, but good luck!"

I'm intrigued by your strategy. If I was retired and/or not invested here, I cannot think of anything less interesting than hanging around on this chatroom, spreading doom and gloom...

I can understand, if you want to buy in at some low level OR if you're shorting the stock.

@Mary: "Cane this one moves quickly"

Yes, I see! Just not in the right direction...

I might pick up some more if it drops below 500p. I don't see a lot of support at the moment.

I'll feel less gloomy about gold if/when it rises back above $1830. Hard to get excited yet.

Will definitely look to add more once the dust settles a bit; probably a couple of days off for me though.

For those without Stockopedia, there's a good summary of the situation in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbx2tmTIo2E

"There are a further £350m of businesses which are for sale in the portfolio division. Some of these are good businesses but are non-core, others like the travel & Events and Enforcement are recovering from Covid. The objective for these businesses will be to exit by the end of 2022 and the proceeds from these disposals are expected to leave the company in a debt free position."

"It doesn’t feel like very much of this progress is yet reflected in the share price."

I find it incredible that they could be debt-free by end 2022, while the price is still less than half of what it was pre-covid. Considering the progress here, it's incredible that it's not over 100p already. Assuming that the recovery continues, the upside is incredible.

There seems to be support at 47p. This looks to me like it's going to break-out on any positive news, hopefully forming a new plateau at 55+p. It could even move without news if the market sentiment improves.

@Chuz: Believe it. It's always the same. They have no idea what they're buying. They see something rising. They buy at the peak. They have no strategy. It dips a bit. They sell at a loss. They blame others.

As a trader, I said a few days ago, I thought it would pullback, so I sold ~40k shares yesterday at a nice % profit, but bought some back later in the day and some more today... if it continues dropping, I'll continue adding or else I'll move money to RIOT, which is similarly lagging like ARB.

@Thebuyer: "The de rampers are out in force. It’s so predictable"

On a share like ARB, the comments of small players on this board has ZERO impact on the share price. The notion of a 'de-ramper' here is nonsense. Only a small fraction of investors/traders even look at this board. I'm reducing my usage of these boards myself, because of the amount of tosh. I've been labelled a 'de-ramper' myself and I had to change my ID, because I started getting threats from loons.

Negative comments on this board have ZERO impact. Sure, the publication of *credible* damming reports can kill the sentiment and crash the price, but not the comments of some little guy on this board. If some lonely little guy wants to say that the price of ARB is going to fall to 80p, I'm all ears. If everything he says is consistently tosh, I ignore him.

It's been an amazing week for trading crypto/miners. If your portfolio is all 'red' and you made no money, you only need to look into the mirror to find the cause!

So how do you hedge a put option?

99.99% of these charlatans can be ignored. But when CZ says the market is 'about to get volatile' - I listen... Only muppets were starting new leveraged positions after a 100% rise.

Without gold rising, it's game-over for any significant price rises on any of the gold miners; improvements at Sukari will have little impact until. Worse. Gold ETFs are seeing continual outflows. I'm thinking (hoping/praying) that it rises later in the year.