Member Info for CaneToad

The problem we have is that gold has failed to maintain the value of people's money. For those who bought at the 'wrong time' in 2011, they'd have seen ~zero appreciation against USD in a ten year period. But in that same time, USD has lost value... And there is no guarantee that it's going to rise from here. I personally think it will, but that's just speculation and wishful thinking. Very few people realise that *all* asset prices are subject to a fickle public.

I get your point. Personally, I have both as I'm not smart enough to choose the winner...

I still believe (maybe foolishly) that the ARB will *eventually* provide more upside than BTC, but we'll have to wait and see.

It's seeming like the funds with BTC miners are doing poorly and are not bringing in much money. Out of the two funds that include ARB, neither has seen significant inflows:

- Invesco's SATO fund has attracted ~8m USD
- Melanion Capital's fund has attracted ~1m EUR

Compare this to the BTC Futures ETFs which have pulled in > $1b.

Optimism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8kvzuYEzjY

"It's buy time!!"

What signs do you see that it's time to buy?

It looks like it's currently down 0.2%, on the way to another attempt to break above $1,830 for the third time since July. I hope it makes it, but I'm holding off until it breaks above that level. I think it needs to break above $1,900 to attract real attention.

@djryan: " china has already banned it"

From what I understand, China is reconsidering its ban on bitcoin mining... they are apparently going to conduct a review with the public to decide. The USA has already announced that they will *not* be banning it.

I also ask myself. Am I smarter than Ray Dalio, George Soros, Paul Tudor-Jones? Am I prepared to hedge my bets by allocating a chunk of my portfolio like them?

Buying big into gold right now is just as much of a gamble, because if it dips even 5%, it will crater CEY and most other gold miners. I don't think that will happen, but it's definitely a risk. I'll look to significantly add to my CEY position once I see confirmation. It's too risky for me otherwise.

I doubt CBDC will have any effect because it's going to be pegged to USD, hence there will be no investment case for anybody to buy it. It could be a useful replacement for 'stable coins' though. I have no interest in any of that other junk.

I'm not looking for any significant outflow from BTC into gold. It's hard to see that happening, because the big investments ($1b on 1-day alone last week) are institutional and have just entered the market. If anything, I expect they'll add significantly if it drops.

APD: "Hi @CaneToad and others, any year end predictions on how high or low the SP could be?"

I have no idea. But we need to see business profitability. I'm not an accountant though and I am concerned that there could be exceptional items (e.g. the lease cancellation) that would distort the profitability picture. Longer-term, I think there's tremeandous upside potential. You just have to look at market cap of their competition. It's hard to say what will happen leading up to results (a month away, from what I can tell: Monday, November 29th 2021), but I would not be surprised to see it drift down to 50p.

@swingman: "I think market is very selective in applying these new global cost on shipping, labour and transport to only few sp's. "

Precisely. After studying this very carefully, I've just bought another wad. Great Value play. Rock-solid company on an incredible growth path.

Some things that I liked about this company when purchasing:

(1) Insiders have significant holdings (Connie Mixon: 12.8%, Hal Alper: 6.5%)
(2) No significant dilution in past 7 years
(3) Debt-free
(4) 2019 market cap was 5x compared to today; 2014 market cap was 10x (disclaimer: I have no idea whether or not there was a dilution prior to 2015 as I do not have that data)
(5) The development of the PFAS products at just the right time
(6) I see the possibility of multi-bagging from this level within a year.

(Do your own research)

Geez, he's had an incredible effect here! Restored my own confidence in this stock as well.

@djryan777: "The big sell signal is when joe public is buying."

I agree with you 100%. But if you look at the statistics of the bitcoin ETF launches last week, it's *not* the joe public that were buying. The new ETFs were mostly sold to institutional investors. The volume dwarfed that of any gold ETFs. I see gold and bitcoin as two complementary assets as do an increasing number of gold investors.

@djryan: I came across people on this channel last year who had their entire wealth invested in CEY, at a time when the share price was more than double the current level... In contrast to your comments on crypto, I don't think 'they' appreciated the dangers of gold equity investing. Similarly, investors who entered the physical gold market in 2011 had to wait 10 years to even recover to break-even, let-alone the opportunity cost. As you're an RMM investor, you'll know first-hand the dangers of investing in mining companies - as I also do, having also invested in that company...

Ultimately, *all* assets are governed by the laws of supply and demand. Gold, silver, lumber, coffee, copper, etc. The demand for bitcoin is soaring, while the supply is fixed. A lot of highly respected investors already consider it to be digital gold and the effect of that is only just starting to be seen.

I generally allocate 10-15% of my portfolio to crypto. But I'm an investor, rather than a dreamer and would cut my positions within seconds if I saw anything serious developing to threaten the bitcoin market. In the meantime, they continue to rise, literally hundreds of percent each year. With even modest dips in the bitcoin price, there are investors stepping in with billions to bounce the price straight back up, which is simply not happening for CEY or gold.

With the Biden administration planning to spend billions to remove PFAs from the environment and Mycelx being a company that does *exactly that* and a market cap of just £8.5m and no debt, there surely is a PE company will to take a punt here. It would be pennies for a company like Elementis. It's an amazing opportunity.

Price still rising. I think somebody has recognised the significance of the announcement.

Wow, that could be huge. Great find! I'm now wondering if the PFA aspect of their business could potentially become the dominant one.

Bottom line. I'll sit back and watch this one before adding. It's one of those that will have to sit in the bottom drawer for 6m.

Assuming they can sell some of the non-performing businesses and prevent further impairment to the balance sheet (what would such a 'loss-making' busines be worth?), I still see the possibility of something solid being uncovered in the buffing of this turd.

Yep, absolutely shocking. It's one o fthe worst that I've ever read. Not because of the actual financial impact - which I don't think is that great. More that it was a series of 'downers'. It's like it was written by a depressed person. It's like they were trying to crash the share price - they succeeded!!!! I'm starting to wonder if there's an agenda behind it.

Bottom-line. If you're looking to do a quick 20% swing trade, you're out of luck... This is a longer-term investment, but I'm happy with how things are progressing and expect to exit within 6m at a nice profit. If it drops for no reason other than weak hands, I'll add significantly more.

- Another big reduction in net debt to $207.6m
- Significant unrestricted net cash of $203.6m
- Significant diamond inventory of $76m to be sold
- Diamond prices increasing

Balance sheet continues to improve. Stocko metrics now beginning to look good enough to start beinging in Value investors (Value = 99), with all metrics (Quality, Value, Momentum, StockRank) improving.

I thought the update was solid and I'm happy with the progress.

@HarChris: "Mr Big summed it up better than me. There are more exciting stocks on AIM but at this price it is about as low risk as it gets."

Without Covid Testing, I'd say it's worth what it was pre-covid, which is about 10p a share. **I** believe that covid is here for a long time, but the market seems to disagree with me...