Member Info for CaneToad

What is so disappointing here is that they're in a fast growing area that *should* be seeing a significant amount of new business and excitement by new investors, but they seem incapable of attracting any significantly juicy contracts or just have too many engineers on the payroll to translate contracts into profitable outcomes. I'm beginning to think they need to bring back the founder, who better undetsood and grew this business rather than the current, disastrous management.

This could be useful to monitor the amount of hot air being emitted from TCAP management offices.

I'm 20% down on this old dog which I've held since March.

On the positive, the fundamentals have actually improved since end of August, if you believe what Stockopedia says. This is the first time that the StockRank has been bullish (over 70%) for several years. The fundamentals look half decent:

Quality: 64
Value: 97
Momentum: 35
StockRank: 73

Ordinarily, you'd think that this would bring in some new punters/Value investors, but clearly this is as popular as an incontinent dog in a swimming pool. I'm going to hang on though. I think it's going to eventually move. I wish they'd check all new managers for a pulse before employing them...

@KeithOz: It makes perfect sense to me. I hope something happens. They can't continue like this for another 5 years. Even the hardiest of investors will depart. It's not just the revenue situation; it's the vacuum of news/progress.

In my opinion, they would be better to sell the entire Dundas project to another company that has more money and expertise. Donald Trump tried to buy the whole of Greenland and the US Exim bank has expressed the desire to fund the project - presumably with strings attached. But there clearly is US interest. Without concrete plans and a timeline, I'm beginning to wonder if this company is investable. They seem to have no urgency with doing anything. It just floats along with news and without revenue.

Does anybody have any information to suggest that Dundas funding will be achieved this year?

If not, I am beginning to question my own reason for continuing to have funds invested here. It seems to be completely stagnant.

Like I said, there is now little-, if any correlation between the expectation of inflation and the price of gold. Today we had the EU inflation hit a new peak since July 2008, but gold has dropped significantly -1.20%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi

I'm not sure what is going to cause it ro rise, but I expect that if in 6m, they subsequently find that EU inflation is dropping, that gold would drop further. I'm hoping that I'm wrong.

@Mrtibbles: what is the future AISC they're aiming at? how much of a reduction?

@Nacho: Thanks for the link. Yep, I'd viewed that one. Here's another review:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxm6qU7zVTY

They're both a bit out of date, but I think most of the comments still apply.

Does anybody effect the gold market except the USA? The buying in UK/Europe is pathetic. It only seems to spring to life during US hours.

Good to see ETH hitting its all time high. Also positive to see strong buying appearing after each of the BTC drops this week.

@Chuz: I hope you're making some decent money mining the ETH?

@djryan: I agree with everything you've said. I've oversimplified things. Any good news on CEY will be positive for the share price; it's just that's going to be short-lived unless gold itself is rising. I agree 100% that gold 'should be higher'. Unfortunately, our view is not going to change the market...

@SteveJones999: "It’s intra-day movement of gold price (within U.K. stock markets time zones) and gold sentiment that makes the SP move."

Exactly.

- If Gold is doing well, CEY will rise. Most gold miners will rise; all boats rise with the tide.
- If Gold is stationary, CEY will drift around; mostly downwards, moving only on major news
- If Gold drops, CEY and other gold miners will drop steeply

Anybody that thinks that CEY is going to magically rise without gold, is fooling themselves, unless CEY were to literally uncover a 1-tonne gold nugget... there will of course be occasional ~3% moves from company news.

The bad news. There is some evidence that the link between inflation expectation and gold is breaking down. It's becoming obvious. Europe just reported the highest inflation since 2008, but gold has not moved; actually, it's slightly down. I hope the situation changes. I'm not sure how many times I've heard stories that it's 'just about to explode' because of changes in derivatives rules, China buying, Russia buying, etc. etc. etc.

Hmm, I see two contradictory bits here:

"The global pandemic placed constraints on the business, and we used government job retention schemes to protect jobs and support colleagues throughout that difficult period"

Further down the page:

"Ince's annual statement also revealed that cutting 47 staff roles resulted in a saving of £1.2 million."

So they say one thing to get the money and then cut the staff anyway...don't you love lawyers!

@Know0: "I dont see the synergies that could get or bolt ons - then whats their exit? IPO? Not really"

I wouldn't expect they'd have to do anything. Just hold onto it and perhaps break it up down the track. The current management already seem to be on track. The world will be a different place in 2y time and it should yield a nice return.

"Meanwhile Biles recently received 500k for getting the SP to above 80p"

Are you joking? Please tell me that it isn't true?

Can you image the dispair of people that bought these shares @2000p?

The entire management need to go. They have no skin in the game and clearly have no idea what to do next. What is needed is an extraordinary general meeting to oust these clowns.

Hmm. Similar volume to yesterday.

What would be really nice is for a US PE form to take this private... UK shares are incredibly undervalued and are very attractive.

I have two theories on what's going on here:

1) A fund is selling a large holding over an extended time OR
2) Private Investors are even more stupid than people think and are selling at a loss

Maybe it's both.

It's a great business and I get happier to add to my position the lower it goes. Looks like a superb 6-12m investment. Global shipping costs are already dropping steeply.