Member Info for CaneToad

@CHRI55: "More dilution today "

Unless I'm wrong, they're just issuing 31,250 shares, which represents 0.06% of the total shares. I've not overly concerned about that.....I doubt even a HFT algo would bother.

@jcb208: "Wow any one feeling sorry for the shorts 5% up already we have lift off"

They've been here a long time. I have a feeling that they somehow control the share price.

@KGR: "They ATHs, you might want to zoom out a bit on MARA for example, around 2012 ish ..."

OK, you got me! I just focussed on the past year. It looks like MARA have issued a LOT of shares since then (like all miners...), so I expect that price is unlikely to occur again unless BTC does what Michael Saylor says it will!

I think there's BIG upside here and with several miners. ARB is my biggest holding, then RIOT.

@Pops: Let's keep things in perspective. As I've said a few times, none of the miners are above their ATH.

Here are the Friday numbers:

=================
Price vs 52w High
=================
ARB: -66.67%
DIGIHOST: -65.25%
RIOT: -64.69%
HIVE: -46.48%
BITFARMS: -28.37%
MARA: -15.24%
HUT 8: -18.09%
=================

Today is looking good, with most miners rising strongly, but most have a *long* way to go.

As I mentioned last week and on the weekend, none of the miners have done well lately. The behaviour of RIOT, in particular, has been quite poor; similar to ARB. We need to forget this erroneous idea that 'all the other miners are above their ATH'.

Hopefully we'll see a turnaround this week.

This has a good smell about it!

Silly not to be in this now; added a new tranche.

@jimmy00: good point re: the solar.

With the solar panels coming online, I expect there will be no long-term hit due to increasing power costs. It's all looking good here. It's impressive how the management were ahead of the curve with the solar power plans.

Maybe it's due to the rumors of an interest rate rise in the UK? which is going to add fuel to the fire for rises in other countries. Just a crazy guess. I've never understood the logic on this one. It's a bit bonkers.

With the FTSE down 0.65% and the Beta of CPI being 6.9, I think it's no surprise that CPI is down today.

Volume is low; drifting down with the FTSE and for who-knows-what other reasons.

@David: "This implies that the AISC is rising and profits, probably not at all. Sorry to rain on your parade"

It's worth comparing ATYM to CAML in Stockopedia:

=======================
Company: ATYM, CAML
=======================
Mkt Cap (£/m): 496.2, 435.7
EV (£/m): 465.6, 442.7
Net Profit (£/m): 77.2, 41.0
Sales (£/m): 280.2, 138.3
=======================

In summary, ATYM is more profitable than CAML and is much cheaper. ATYM is signalled as the 'winner' by Stockopedia.

Atalaya is currently valued on a P/E (12m Forecast Rolling) of 4.7, while Central Asia Metals (CAML) is 7.5. Granted, CAML pays a nice dividend.

Atalaya has been profitable for the past 6 years, with profits increasing significantly over that time.

Operating Profits for 2019, 2020 and TTM were (EUR/m): 36.6, 35.7 and 111
Net Profits were: 37.3, 31.5 and 91.5

Production guidance was raised on 13 Oct and copper has risen another 10% since then, so it's a reasonable expectation that the next years's profits could be even higher.

@Stockready!: "Nearly 4 bagger for me so far"

Very nice. It's been an incredible ride. I can't for the life of me understand why people are chasing totally speculative copper plays, while this has / is going to do so well..... I expect this to double from here if they start paying a decent dividend.

https://twitter.com/BNCommodities/status/1449706773020041223

"#Copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange haven't been this low since the 1970s. The squeeze has helped drive prices above $10,000 a ton."

In summary. Miners have done poorly lately. None have tracked BTC well. The problem is not specific to ARB.

I am confident of the figures and I have cross-checked them with Yahoo Finance and Hargreaves Lansdown. All matched, except for a small (immaterial) disagreement with the 52w High for ARB between those two sources of data.

@LTInv: "which is what I believe is keeping the SP where it is, 65% below ATH, while all the other miners are 10/20% above."

It is not true that 'all the other miners are 10/20% above the ATH'.

None of the miners that I track (and invest in) are above their ATH. Here are the 15 Oct 2021 numbers (yesterday's close).

=================
Price vs 52w High
=================
ARB: -66.67%
DIGIHOST: -65.25%
RIOT: -64.69%
HIVE: -46.48%
BITFARMS: -28.37%
MARA: -15.24%
HUT 8: -18.09%
=================

As I mentioned on Thursday, apart from a few spikes, none of the miners have done well lately. The behaviour of RIOT in particular, has been very poor, similar to ARB.

Blonity talks about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3ffX1KGWQs

@Alandale: "Copper is up again today and nearly at its highest this year- share price needs to keep rising to match it- we are a copper play afterall"

In my experience, this share doesn't move quickly... but it appears as though it might have finally woken from a long slumber. Glad to have a decent chunk of this which I'll be holding long-term.

I've added some more. I said that I'd add more after seeing improvements to the business fundamentals and that's what I see here.

It's definitely looking like IT is finally starting for gold miners.

All my gold miners have been quietly rising for a couple of weeks now; I only really noticed it the past couple of days though as the progress picked up speed. Some of the small ones are really starting to fly.

Fingers crossed. Wood touched.

@Ian.B: "This is one of the few companies that’s on a recovery trajectory that’s yet to see an improvement in sp after the covid plunge."

It should be more than double the current level to be even roughly comparable to pre-covid, given the progress against the turnaround plan.

@MacF1 / @swans:

Fair points, but apart from the last couple on my list, all miners have performed poorly over the past few months. I'm wondering if it's because they outperformed BTC earlier in the year.

See the Blonity video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3ffX1KGWQs

Personally, I think this is going to fix itself 'soon'.