Member Info for Canary3

IMO the only thing that matters currently is Ingenuity..in the absence of a breakthrough in this area at most we will get a smallish return from here..because although the other divisions are doing well and Ok respectively they will always be held back by the aforesaid ingenuity.

Apollo said as much when they were interested in talking, they offered a decent price but wanted to do deals with others over nutrition and beauty in order to fund the growth of ingenuity. ( and they probably have better contacts to do some ingenuity deals)

ironically that showed that they put a lot of value on ingenuity as do the senior management at THG, so i am waiting for the big moment when a couple of whales are announced, if and when that happens then all bets are off and we will see a rise in the SP that will cause a bit of a shock.

Suddenly the division that is holding us back ( but IMO is ready to move onwards) and getting lots and lots of money spent on it, becomes a positive rather than a negative and all bets are off.

Then 2 or 3 pounds looks like a feasible target and the future looks better, i do think MM is shooting for that and he won't leave until then.

MM's foundation has circa 10 million about 90% down from when it was set up, at 30 ‘ish million if the SP hits 3 pounds, and with his other wealth then options open up, until then he will be with us and when the SP gets to 2 or 3 pounds people will be desperate for him to stay...LOL

Me i will hang about, currently about even give or take a couple of grand and personally i think that more and bigger deals will be landed at ingenuity , but of course I believe in the future and think that MM is doing a very good job indeed, he has built a great team around him over the last couple of years and sometimes that is overlooked.

GL to all

Value investors tend not too moan every few days, hours or minutes, they invest and relax...

Perhaps there are many value investors , who knows, perhaps they are all driven off the boards by the posters that post all the time. ( me included)

Perhaps some posters have too much invested so tend to ‘moan'a lot, but those that do share counts know that MM will only go when MM chooses, he holds far too many shares to be ousted.

But hey i think he is great and for those that can't see the progress the company has made in the last two years , then they aren't looking hard enough IMO

But Gl to us all.

15 ....lol

That should be 1 year deal attached.

I have no doubt at all that we will see a couple of very big deals come to ingenuity in the next 3 to 6 months and we will see the SP rise accordingly.

Then of course all the naysayers will be pleased d to have held and say how clever they were/are.

GL of course to all including the naysayers and the perpetual moaners.

It takes a lot of views to make a market, i completely disagree with those that think that MM is a liability, i look at the progress of the company and am very happy indeed, i know that some think he hshould act differently, if thats the case i am amazed that they have invested and held here. But hey ho

Once a few orders come through for THG Ingenuity ( which take a long time to come to fruition but conmence with 10 or 1 year deal attcahed)

Licker- Thanks for that reply.

I will just say he will never leave, ( and i support him so i am happy), if you or any others think he is a liability then the sensible thing to do is sell and move on.

Any broker would tell holders that, and I have to say they would think I am a fool, but there you go i don't use a broker i self invest , sometimes that is good sometimes not...

But if you think MM is a fool, and liability then you and holder who thinks that should sell, i never stay invested if i don't rate the management, i think the strides forward that THG has taken in the last two years are fantastic and value will out at some point.

But of course i could well be wrong.

GL

I agree also

If posters thought MM was the wrong person why on earth did they invest here, his holding alone makes it almost impossible to replace him, with one or two supporters he is invincible, personally i think he is great and nothing has changed at all since a couple of days after the float, he has always held the whip hand.

Clearly the massive sales going through means that loads of investors are unhappy...OH wait a minute..

If i lose 20 or 30% percent so be it..i made mistake and will need to lick my wounds , but that is life.

I don't think that will happen and i have 3 or 4 years before i might sell, but hey we are where we are..

GL to all holders regardless of the stuff that is posted ( if many of them actually hold a decent amount), personally i think we will thrive.

BUT along with all others WTFDIK

Gl to all

Looks like massive selling going on nobody holding, i am surprised that many are still posting....

LOL

GL

I was going to write something over the weekend, but i might as well do it now.

IMO it is almost certain that something is going to break over the next 6 months or so, it takes a long time to get ready to go live for a big client, so its either a drip feed or wait for the big go live.

I suspect that the ‘secret information’ that MM couldn’t give out at the last results is real and it involves a couple of big clients, so i wait quietly , i have a big holding for me down at the moment but if all goes well IMO we will see a couple of big names come on board with a big footprint, also i think any talk of them, IE THG doing it at a loss or break even is for the birds.

One day IMO we will be sitting looking in and thinking you could buy these at todays price!! The company is far removed from the company that was floated.

But hey I would say that as i believe, and this week we saw one share go up 8 or 10 fold, and another getting taken out at 250% of todays price.

The market is mis-pricing lost of shares right now and I believe THG is a big mis price.

Gl to all

So , firstly i would say i am bewildered at folks having invested here and then wanting the founder to depart, he holds around 20+ percent and has the support of the charity that holds and the employees that hold, i think people that do not support MM are best off selling.

He will never leave unless he sells and goes off to work on the charity side , this could of course be a remote posibility.

Me I have been buying again approx 30 thousand at under 70p in fact i bought around 10k on Friday, so have upped my stake to over 200k shares and i am down around 15% . I got a bit enthusiastic in the 80 and 90’s. LOL

I could go on and on about the improvements that have happened over the last two years or so, but it will just get people worked up, suffice to say we are seeing great strides in Nutrition and Beauty, and IMO these areas are worth far more than the current SP. Perhaps many times the current SP.

The leaves ingenuity and currently the company is in change mode for this, it of course supports the other two divisions and has changed focus to land bigger customers on its own right, I think it will do very well it may take some time but it will get there IMO.

I don't post that much anymore as, in the main, the board is full of people that do not support the Founder and the board and it all gets a bit boring, i wish TGL well and hope he recovers.

I will post after the 3rd q and look forward to the next year.

GL to all holders

To be honest, I’m not sure what purpose genuine holders venting their frustrations on any bb serves?

I have gripes, I’m losing patience over the lack of information re: strategy, but there’s no point going over it again and again and again. Posting 10s of times a day about it.

OAC has suggested some practical steps those who are frustrated can take. It’s good advice. Much better than repeated venting on a bb.

FWIW, while I take issue with some things Matt does, he’s doing a lot right: Starting by legal separation of the divisions (huge), he’s (this year, so far) delivered guidance, given up the GS early, bolstered the BoD, we have a growing nutrition business, beauty returning to growth having been impacted by an industry-wide issue, are seeing some brilliant innovation in nutrition (brand partnerships) and landed some decent ingenuity contracts (matalan, L’Oréal, asda). There’s a lot going on at THG, a lot to be excited about. It’s not a stagnant business in decline and he deserves credit for that.

But amongst all the frustrations being aired on here I just ask myself one simple question: do I think the SP will be higher in future than it is today? The answer is a resounding YES. I’m 1 million percent certain so it’s just a sit, hold, top up for me. NO WAY am I selling on the cheap even if it’s a bit cheaper tomorrow or next week.I won’t be working myself in to a depression while I wait for that day to arrive.

My two bobs worth is, that ‘fast money’ read the 5 years for Ingenuity to get to very decent pay back and the slowing down on beauty..so they sold fast and hard, it happens especially on THG , i am very comfortable holding the share and i increased my holding at 71 and 66 and 67p.

Excellent post from Stockbroker IMO and GL to holders.

Well i stuck in another 10k a few minutes ago , 5k lumps holding far too many...but i am a believer..

GL to all that buy or hold

I see i missed the actual spend by THG, he says it’s 200 million ..so a penny or three

This is a quote from MM when talking about City AM, it really is pennies in the spend of THG and personally i say, fantastic and bring it on as fast as we can..Long THG from me and GL to those that think THG is going to be a big earner for us little people.

Again City AM is pennies in the scheme of things as are the earnings from the new products at Iceland , but they will now thats for sure...we have the rest of the world to launch into.

'THG spends over £200m a year on speaking to consumers. We spend huge sums on media, but we’re also a vast producer of content ourselves. Both Myprotein and LOOKFANTASTIC.COM produce their own magazines, with ABC circulations of c550k per edition - huge audiences by any standard, dwarfing most magazines & newspapers.'

Thanks yespsp appreciated- two things..

if you drink 10 + and some days it was plus plus..units every day for 50 years, don't be surprised if things go bit a pear shaped when you get to your mid 60’s .

and

If your blood pressure is getting high - get it lowered use the pills...LOL

Anyway i am back on my feet, not drunk alcohol for 6 weeks now and currently deciding whether to chuck it completely or have a glass now and again.

Gl with THG my missus would have sold the lot without waiting!!

I have been off the board for a short time as i have been a bit poorly. Although I read through the posts and a lot of hot air ( IMO) is spouted about MM.

MM has been consistent throughout in voicing his distaste of the existing state of affairs in the city, and again IMO he is correct in the main.

I have only held for a short time, so from about 89p when i first bought and i now have many more, some bought at over a pound and many more bought in the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s as well as other buys.

THG is worth a considerable amount, much more that the current SP IMO and MM’s actions over the last 18 -24 months have been fantastic, the renewed focus on the key issues for the business have been superb and the clear focus on nutrition is a masterstroke.

We also have a complete board with some very high profile names indeed putting their weight behind the company, TGL and MM have done a fantastic job at the most senior level, the board of THG is second to none in the business world today.

Nutrition alone is worth much more than the value of the business as it stands, the last takeover approach valued what i believe to be the real future of THG at least at 65p ( conservatively). So all in all we are well undervalued IMO.

So for me i am holding and indeed i have added a decent amount in the last couple of days, some at higher prices than today and a some at lower prices, but i am sure i will see a decent return.

I find people spouting time after time he should do this or that tiresome, but hey i can't stop people posting, so everyone can crack on as they like and we will see what happens.

I think it will go well for us that holding and adding at around todays price will serve us well.

GL as always.

PS I think the business is in great shape and i am very optimistic for the future in case that hasn’t bben clear in my post.

2phevs

You know i think Kelso’s note was poor and they haven't got the resources to do a decent job, but even I don't think that they have got their Nav wrong by a factor of circa 30%..

That would be incompetence beyond belief.

GL- BTW it is of no account whether i sold or not..

Nav when the SP was 93.9 = 2.6p

On 30 June 2023, THG's share price closed at 81.5p, generating an unrealised gross gain of £1.7 million pre-tax and pre-performance fee. This represents approximately 35% increase to our overall cost price, and a return on cash investment of c.58% pre-tax and pre-performance fee return. As at 30 June, the estimated NAV (after accrued corporation tax and performance fee) was £7.2 million, including £3.1 million of cash, equating to 2.3p per share. The closing price of THG as at 11 July 2023 was 93.9p, equating to a Kelso NAV of c.2.6p.

Thanks Yorek. very good info, I think that THG has the IP on the meals or at a minimum its 50/50.

Of course i don't know, but i am pretty sure that they were created in THG’s food labs rather than Iceland’s, MM said specifically that THG would be looking to expand outside of Icelands area covered by the 5 year exclusive.

But either way its a great product..

Nutrition growth last year was 2.4%, if it shows growth of over 10% and shows that the new lines are going great guns, then the valuations will follow. Kevins went from 100 million to 140, it’s a new 'ish business so plenty of room for more growth.

This is part of the reason i see Kelso’s note as poor, they just think that someone will pay big multiple without any caveats, I think a multiple is lower than those quoted in their note, but if we see growth restart then all will be good.

I am very hopeful that the ice-cream product will be a major catalyst, it’s sold worldwide and is a well loved product that is affordable for a significant majority of households.

YoreK has opened my eyes to the possibility and i am very keen to see the new launches, if International means America rather than Europe then the future will be well and truly on.

On P Scott he takes a very conventional “accountants view of the business as do most of the broker houses IMO. But he and they totally underestimate or ignore how the Apollo conversations went, or sure we should be heading towards two pounds just on the back of that.

GL and All Imo of course