Member Info for Canary3

No wonder MW crashed out, they owe someone a favour...LOL

Liking ‘another bidder’ i wonder who that could be ...

Could get proper value for this

GL to the minnows

I also bought Klso this morning, it could go rather well, i see the staff trust has done its 8.3 when he voted through the last big wedge into that , i knew that a deal was in the making, he looks after his people. ( I di post that at the time)

So i am not talking after the event..

GL to the minnows.

I could see a deal that included MM for 12 to 18 months for a handover and then let him then focus on his charity work going forward.

But the deal would need to make him a billionaire again, before it was agreed by him.

IMO

The ideal fit is our old friend Walgreen Boots.

They do beauty and Nutrition and they are an existing customer of Ingenuity., so they know well its capabilities and they could likely utilise the new jersey facility.

They will probably need some empty warehouse to continue to automate

they are big enough to handle the deal.

IMO they will be looking in with great interest

Stories again.

90% of trades last week were at 25 to 25.50, the rest a t 24.75 or at 26 and change

Somebody or some entity is buying all it can at around 25p

Higher Volume at start of the week much lower at end of the week as sellers dried up, if they want to buy more they will have to go up to 26 or 26.5

All IMO ( but easy to check the trades)

Everything about rolling over has been made up and speculated on by this board in response to some speculation in the press.

Regarding rolling over, that is speculation on here in the RNS THg said this. That is they want to buy the company.

'The Board of THG notes the recent press speculation regarding THG and confirms that it is currently in receipt of a highly preliminary and non-binding indicative proposal from Apollo Global Management Inc. ("Apollo") on behalf of certain of its affiliated funds, to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of THG (the "Proposal").

Apollo have done an internal rate of return of 24 % net of fees for the last few decades if i read it right.

So they will target growth in the capital invested at around that rate, that is a very high bar IMO and they achieve that by never overpaying, and buying distressed / significantly undervalued businesses.

They take advantage of SP that become disconnected from true/real value as seen by the management, the management are often sold out by shareholders that don't want to stay the distance to regain an appropriate SP.

They will pay whatever number it needs to as long as it can realise 25% PA growth in capital compounded.

They will of course pay the lowest possible value that they can.

Interesting times ahead.

So if you are a multi-national with both beauty and nutrition in the portfolio, and have warehouse facilities in Europe and America that are not fully automated. THG may well interest you.

The reasons Ingenuity of course is that THG have
- two fully automated state of the art facilities with 500,000 capacity each per day, with its won software.

If the conglomerate has the usual mixed bag of legacy systems , manual workarounds, separate fraud systems and manual checks etc, they IMO will be interested in replacing them or some of their capacity with a brand new state of the art facility.

Say they go self build,

How long will it take - NJ has been going on since I became a shareholder about a year ago, so say 12-18 months.
How much per item do you save? Whatever it is you can times it by say 200,000 a day worth having.
How much will it cost to buy the space, build the capability test and get going?
How much management time and effort will it take away from you exiting capability , quite a lot.

How much would you pay for 700 million of turnover in Nutrition vertically integrated, and over a billion in beauty, with at least 6 brands vertically integrated including ESPA. On top of those two fully automated warehouses as well as the other locations worldwide

With a significant amount of heavy lifting already done in the way of streamlining the business , closing down On demand and so on.

So two star of the art warehouses plus the rest of the business, plus proprietary software for the rest of your business. automation plus the teams with the capability.

IMO there will be two or three existing clients of THG watching this very carefully and i presume they are supporters of MM, if Apollo come in at a couple of quid, iMO they will throw in a spoiling bid and even if MM sends it packing, he has only 4 months left on the GS.

If the spoiling bid is say 75% more than apollo the board is duty bound not to accept Apollo.

Personally i think the numbers being touted are very low. 2 quid a share is only 3 billion for all of the above, they are having laugh.

That my last comment with my lone voice saying its not a done deal.

Clearly if and when i am wrong , i will return and eat some humble pie..

GL to the minnows.

You’re most likely right, but the board has a duty to all shareholders to get the best price.

If a brand rocks up at a four or five pound a share bid, all bets are off.

Just to go a bit more about ingenuity valuation.

If a company wanted to build the capability that exists within Ingenuity THG, it would cost many hundreds of millions just as it has cost THG..and it comes with propriety software and Vivek going like a train building partnerships in the states Canda and indies in the last few months.

As well as a great link up with autostore.

Its worth way more to a big multi national than its given any credit for

To a big Brand THG is worth many billions of pounds, either a beauty or a nutrition type brand.

They buy THG they sell off the other arm, without ingenuity support and get what they can for it, still big bucks.

They give the buyer 1 year / 18 months to move their stock off ingenuity and get theirs going through, so they have two fully automated facilities 1 for UK and Europe and one for the States a smart of the deal.

Immediately the deal completes they move all ingenuity resources onto converting their own non-automated facilities, of which they have plenty, in other words they have an in house ingenuity team that is dedicated to their automation.

That is with a lot of money, and if we can see it so can others.

IMO Apollo will be outbid.

More stories.

I thought the bit about big brands buying up smaller brands says something, i am sure Coca Cola or nestle wont let it go private for a song.

My protein is worth a lot and if they can get involved they will again IMO of course.

I think it is interesting that this is published today, if i am reading that date correctly.

The quote around brands especially Fever Tree resonates. Imo a roll-over with Apollo is not a done deal .

Nae Lads OKE will get his poond when MW start their buying in the Morn...

When i were a but a bobbin there were a grand show on that tv box..sommut about a Jack.

I ken ye see

They started shorting THG in June 22 and held around 0.5% till Dec when they started increasing.

They increased until peaking at 1.5% on the 2nd of March

Now they are off the charts ..

they sound a bit like me!!

They are very big they have huge short on nat west so THG is not big.

I think they must know something and they got out fast, IMO normally they would reduce but still hold a significant position from here in case any deal goes south after all the short here it is small in their context.

i think and hope Apollo are going to get left at the Alter as MM would say and MW wanted to of a short that could go very wrong.

I still make up stories

GL to the Minnows

Nestle have Ingenuity type arrangement with an Ali baba subsidiary in China, dedicated to nestle products..

They are crashing out , someone posted that the 90’s are around their entry price, if true they are nervous, shorts rarely crash out like this IMO.

The kitchen is getting hot, i would think they will go long

Well since the fall this AM i have bought back a fair few, after impulsively selling more than a fair few...but hey mistakes are made all the time..

There is more going on that meets the eye.

IMO of course Vivek has been a great addition to the senior team