Baker Hughes is truly staggering as an endorsement2 May 2021 12:52
The Pantheon Presentation on 20th April 2021
A promise made by Bob Rosenthal Pantheon's technical director & repeated twice, Theta West upgrade due in 30 days, therefore anytime before Thursday 20th May.
On the day after the presentation I spotted a post thanks to btgman which I think is worth repeating again - makes you think.
btgman 21 Apr '21
The external verification from Baker Hughes is truly staggering and as an endorsement is very hard to argue against. So where should it be?
Canaccord currently sits at risked base 99p based on Alkaid + SMD only OR £1.86 risked for Talitha but this includes nothing for BFF (Theta West)
W H Ireland Risked based valuation sits at 89p but does not include Theta West or Slope Fan
Clearly, in the above, we should expect to see significant upgrades for the zones they currently including and then some fairly substantial upgrades for the inclusion of the Elephant that is Theta West. Let's not forget Leonis, Down dip Alkaid etc
OK, so where do we go with Theta West? I have long held a view that this would be in the 5-10b barrels of oil recoverable and it is good to see Telemachus put forward 9b as a number and I do think this is something we should all be talking about as it is quite simply huge.
In my own valuation based on £5b allowing for dilution farm down/farm out and a 10% probability of success for Theta West, I land at £1.12 for this zone alone. I don't think 10% is the correct factor but it is a number that allows others easily to adjust accordingly. Maybe 5b is too high at this stage but 10% is too low so I am not budging on the £1.12 minimum.
Clearly, we are talking £2+ on the most discounted of valuations at which point. If we were sat at £1 today I would have a view we were massively undervalued. All of the above is risked based so not a blue sky valuation almost where we should be today and still isn't factoring all the other upgrades or Leonis.
Looking forward to the official upgrades in due course but it is a start to kick around.
AIMHO GLA BTG
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