Member Info for BwanaMakubwa

Part 2:

So as mentioned by myself and others, it is possible that we are blowing away current forecasts in the market and insiders can see this.

My back of fag packet calculations (sorry I am not as sophisticated as Shaun P with his incredible spreadsheets) suggest we could easily do EBITDA of £300m this year with a year end cash balance of £250m ish (assuming no more acquisitions).

This puts us on on an EV of just £384 million.(EV is true value of the operating company.Market cap less cash on balance sheet) and an EV/EBITDA of just 1.28x.If I am anywhere near right no wonder insiders are piling in.

So let’s await further developments in the safe knowledge that management are highly confident and our company is valued at bargain basement prices....but as ever we can only speculate on numbers until we see the real situation reported.

Part 1.

So this week we have witnesssed 4 Directors buying shares at between 715p and 907p.As myself and many others on this Board have commented this is a hugely bullish sign.It also means the Directors are not in a “quiet period”,so we cannot expect a trading update or any acquisition news for at least six weeks.However,we can get news on awarded and extended contracts where the tenders are out, but the results yet unknown to management.

So why have these good gentlemen bought.I will speculate for the following reasons:
1.The shares have been badly hit by the Pfizer vaccine news and rumours of other vaccines, but they are not worried by this because they know that testing must continue indefinitely.
2.They know that in Winterplex they have a potential massive global brand.
3.They are fully aware of the numbers of tenders and extensions out there and know they must win some of them.
4.As insiders they can see the sales rolling in and the cash piling up.They are thus in a far better position to value the company than any of us and that includes us PIs,(even our hugely respected Shaun P),any institution Blackrock,Trium,Octopus and Co,any broker Numis,SP Angel,ODDO.What they see with much more accuracy than us is a massively undervalued business.

Yes absolutely 100% prohibited.I am sure we will see their stakes are higher once deal details announced!!!

I for one would like a quiet period of consolidation here next week this share is not good for my sleeping patterns.On a more serious note,I actually do think it will be quieter next week,but reading and digesting all the news flow and research that Novae have posted here over the last month I am increasingly convinced sales,EBITDA and cash position will blow all estimates out of the water when we finally see them.Good weekend Novae.

Excellent post Tones.Thank you.

100% agree EJackson, we all focus way too much on the UK-huge amounts going on in the USA and other foreign markets.

EJackson-I totally agree with you-very good point made.Operational total silence is very interesting, but in my opinion very understandable and correct. BUT when numbers are released I feel they will blow away our estimates and the brokers estimates leading to big upgrades in numbers and a share price moving vertically.

Three insider buys in three days is a huge vote of confidence. Essentially our Directors are moving there cash from their safe bank accounts into what is essentially a risk asset. his tells us they see they are involved in a fantastic, fast growing business and want their own cash in it. I do not care if some posters feel two of the trades were small or question where the CEOs cash came from, this is a massive endorsement from management.

Tiptree it is another trading platform.I think the full name is Equiniti.Telephone number is 0345 0700720.

I strongly recommend EQi.They held up all day on Monday, their systems and reporting are ultra efficient and when you phone them the people are pleasant and professional.
My other platform AJ Bell was a disaster on Monday and they have not replied to my secure message politely asking them what the hell happened.
HL sounds even worse-take the time and switch to EQi.

Disclaimer....no I do not work for EQi.

He bought the shares in the market-somebody posted a link photo of the exact trade earlier this morning. Too much worry about semantics, this is a confidant CEO share purchase, does not matter where the money came from he utilised it to buy shares in the market. This is so simple I am amazed that some are confusing the issue .End of story.

It's called semantics chaps-acquire or buy-all the same thing.

Sorry about double post-first one disappeared then reappeared!!

Hi Wasa, no they did not distinguish "other" investors, I just interpreted it as meaning retail and other institutions.They are very aware that they have some pretty large PI investors. So I guess we are just left to speculate on how they do the equity bit,I could not ask specifics for obvious reasons.I very much got the impression that they are all flat out at the moment though.

Hi Wasa ,no they just said "other" investors which I interpreted as both retail and institutional, but it was not specified. I could not ask any price details so I guess we are just left to speculate how they do it. I was left with the impression that they are working flat out though.

Once more unto the Breach dear Novae!!

The cornerstones in Saga and Brown Group were Sir Roger De Haan and Lord David Alliance both Family founders-so very different. They both guaranteed a price they would take up shares, though both deals were materially different. As mentioned I am only speculating, but would hazard a guess that the cornerstones will agree a price, underwrite the balance and see what we take up.
Unlike others here I would actually pay up on an agreed price for the sake of more certainty. But completely respect that others may not want to/cannot and prefer dilution.
I stress I am only speculating here.

Monkey and North-no problem at all. I have only been invested in the last 3 months, but have found this Board extremely helpful, civilised, intelligent and collaborative. Long may that remain (though,unfortunately I fear it will not).

Apologies to those who already know much of this but the key points today were:
1.Financincing-no specific timing update could be disclosed, but things are progressing well. The financing package will be announced in one go-not piecemeal. (Very sensible). Debt 65%,offtakes,cornerstone investors (I assume Teck and Glencore),other shareholders (us lot).Talks ongoing with all parties including Brazilian banks who will be part of the debt syndicate. The syndicate fortunately did site visits in Feb before Covid -important because site visits are a mandatory part of their DD.
2.The market will be updated before Christmas.
3.Nobody is on furlough, working from home or in office when lockdown allows. In Brazil they are starting to work on site again Very important that environment and social services team are seen on site which they are. Hiring staff in Brazil for construction. Key roles will be announced in due course.
4.High level mine development plan will be announced next year-no timing specifics.
5.Vermelho-working on environmental and social impact assessments. With recent Musk comments on nickel several "early stage" inbound enquiries received and being considered, but meanwhile continuing work ongoing as they see huge potential there and are very excited about that project.
6.Peel Hunt initiated coverage in September with a (presumably 12 month) PT of 14p.Peel Hunt being very pro-active (I eat my words expressed earlier re Peel Hunt).Already talking to institutions and this will accelerate once financing package announced. This will be a combination of Peel Hunt contacts, their own extensive institutional contacts and some Toronto based brokers-they feel the Toronto quote is very under utilised and there are large pools of US and Canadian "green" assets to be tapped as potential additions to the share register (For what it is worth I 100% agree with that).

Conclusions-we are in safe hands, they are working bloody hard, there is alot of interest, we will see pretty positive news flow over the next few months.

My personal speculation-the cornerstones will underwrite 50-70% of the required equity at 9-11p,we will be offered the rest. See recent transactions from Saga and Brown Group (the old N Brown) for comparables.

P.S.Congrats DJ on your purchase, I had to pay 6.12p today. Not worried though this will be far north of that in 36 months if all goes to plan.

Apologies Cardinal-you and I seem to be in sync today...!!