RE: Hints from Hansard18 May 2023 15:22
My musings on this.. "Treasury will give the proposals that are currently in front of it"
- Treasury is financial so there is a request for some sort of funding / support in terms of guarantee or cash. This would most likely be for FIG expenditure related to the sealion project (housing, regulatory roles, port improvements etc to support/enable the new revenue source for the FIG), rather than paying for the foreign commercial entities (Navitas) costs of the development. It could be an Export Financing application but I would question why Rob Butler would be pushing this through the topic of an Overseas Territories debate. If it is Export Finance then it would be more logical that it was the "FIG raising finance to take a stake" in the project, as they would qualify for EF far easier than Navitas, but I don't think they need to invest unless it has been proven that funding the project won't happen any other way.
As for "can the FIG decide to start an oil extraction operation in its own waters",
- as a democratic self governed people with their own constitution, of course they can.. However this would raise the risk of retaliation with the argies/ change the status quo on defence, which obviously has an impact on the British Gov as its protectorate. The FIG probably wouldn't go ahead with a unilateral decision of extracting oil that the UK Gov were not in favour of, due to the possibility of the UK pulling back its defence assurances in return.. Hence the possible need to seek approval either formally or informally. However in my opinion they could do it regardless if they wanted, they would just have to work out how to replace the elements the UK could withdraw, which would be pretty difficult and expensive funding and finding air and sea defence capabilities.. So essentially we were always going to need UK Gov approval for this project. however not constitutionally in my opinion.
half joking - Maybe this is why an Israeli company has been invited to take up the baton - plenty of high tech defence not supplied by the UK as a hedge / strategic manoeuvre to aid the approval process by watering down the UK influence!?.
Certainly does get the mind wandering of the discussions and decisions at play outside of the pure financial FID decision which most of us are fixated on - nothing this size in a new province is going to be easy or straight forward -
BB3 - Still think Sea Lion is a slam dunk, just a matter of time