RE: Flow test19 Mar 2025 22:54
Either a shat show just about to unfold -
with failure of securing the 2nd tranch of the private placement and a delay of operations off the back of it.. market hates missed stated timelines and uncertainty even more so (hence the depressed price).
Or, something is cooking which is purposefully holding this all up, likely to be revealed once the agreed placement timeline lapses..
My guess is something is cooking.. how can 14.5% he purity with flow rates from just the top section, which is already good enough to go into production alone, be a dead duck when further deeper drilling (along with further acreage being secured, with top end gas handling and fabrication specialists joining the project) has proved a deeper resource and enables an increase in the resource estimate whilst providing the required info to scale and scope the commercial topside equiptment needed for production numbers (and thus the commercial investment case - final investment decision). All in a Trump environment where imports just became much more expensive. I just don't understand why they wouldn't be full steam ahead, with new money falling over themselves to get involved. 🤷♂️ we are not talking big beer to flow test 2 Wells 350m or so away from each other, and they still have funds left over from the recent raises anyway.
My bet is they are in farm out / jv talks and can't progress with announcement due to an open placing which is no longer needed.
We will soon see, but if nothing is amiss then there should be an awful lot of newsflow within the next 30 days.
Closing of finance, flow test 1 start, flow test 2 start, results for both flow tests, jetstream 2 HE undiluted lab test results.
Beyond 30 days but still short term, news on resource estimate upgrade, production scenario and expected costs and commercial model for final investment decision allong with strategy of how they plan to finance FID (jv, offtake agreements, debt, OO, etc etc.), project NPV, and the timeline to FID and then again from FID to commercial extraction.
Bb3..
This company will go from 'hyping its activities' into hard action and outcomes very shortly.. the share price should follow it up in short order IMHO. (Unless this is a long con coming to a slow close - would be very odd if it were though, as I would have expected way more fundraising and much grander plans of how to spend it if that was the case - this project just doesn't cost that much to bring to the point of FID).