Member Info for BuildersBum3

Similar to me Paul.. but mine is a much closer £3 :-)

Lol

Bb3

Thanks Slipanchor.

I remember the FOGL thing was an absolute DESaster, and we should have bought DES directly in the first place rather than have to wait and then pick it up from FOGL.. the lack of action in the first place ended up with us over specking the rig to drill in the south when we had no need to, and thus where nearly all of our forward momentum (and money) was spent.. (which was in the wrong basin chasing pipe dreams when we already had a good and defined strike - greed comes to mind, however I'm pretty sure I was on board with it at the time, hindsight eh!)

Think Ill go back and look at the RNS to find out exactly how many and where those part drills were done.

BB3

Slipanchor,

Can you remind me of any details around the three part drilled Wells you mention.

I do remember problems with the BOP, but my memory is quite hazy from thoes days.. do you remember which targets and why they did 3 (I'm assuming them moved and drilled a few times whilst waiting for a new/repaired BOP.. but why didn't they go back once sorted? Was that right at the end of the campaign which they ultimately then stopped prior to completion due to rising costs.. because I do remember they never got to tag the top of the western High to find if it was a gas cap or oil which they had planned to do.

A quick abc of what happened would be most helpful in reminding me.

Thanks in advance. (Such a long time ago now).

Bb3

I could sign up for 72p-£3 from spudding first well to completion of phase 1 (not first oil).

BB3

S

better late than never.. no pun intended. lol

BB3

35% share of 55,000 production = 19,250 per day

19,250 x $48 per barrel (72usd per barrel based on Brent pricing today - Opex @ 24usd) = £924,000 per day

$924,000 x 0.79 exchange rate of $ to £ today = £729,960 per day

Average 5% downtime of new FPSOs (based on first 10 years of FPSO operations within the Norwegian market)(double for second hand?) = 365 days * .90 = 328 days operations

328 days x £729,960 = £239m per year cashflow (pre corporation tax which will kick in once costs to date have been recovered)

£239m Cashflow - FIG royalties @ 9% = £218m

£218m x PE of x 10 = 2,180m

2,180m / shares in issue (639.27) = £3.41 per share

Obviously this number would likely never be reached on just Phase 1 as its not discounted and is cashflow rather than profit whilst phase 2, further exploration, G&A, and any other production headwinds haven't been taken into consideration. etc. etc. etc.

But it goes to show the tremendous upside that could be bestowed upon RKH shareholders if they stay the course.

BB3

Cj.. haven't gone back over recent posts but I'm assuming your 33% was in reference to the RKH share of sealion, if it was then you can add a further 2% to make the math correct as they have a 35% share currently.

BB3.

I wonder if there are any shorts that need to be unwound quickly if this breaks 15p today.. if the chart is showing a fair bit of blue sky above then it will be a rush to close..

God knows what the short element of this stock is but its had a depressed price around it for a long time and a negative outlook for even longer. Could there still be a load of shorts out there yet to close?

Bb3

Lol.. rkh being taken out for 150/200m once OM has landed. Don't make me laugh.

I'm sure it would make great business sense for Navitas. Problem is that to do that they would need something like 75+% acceptance of their offer and this share is not held tightly by institutions or insiders.. So to get their offer accepted they will need an offer big enough to tempt the sale. 100-150% premium on cash in hand won't be even close to working in my view so they won't be getting my 0.4%.

An offer over 70p would definately make me think about the time cost and risk of going through next 2 years of development or exiting. Is 70p enough to get it over the line? I wouldn't have a clue, but seriously 30p!.. lol don't make me laugh. (We would all love to buy £5 notes for 30p if we could, navitas is no different, problem is there aren't many people selling them).

BB3

Nice find Paul..

Hopefully it wasn't just a research and fesability assignment.

🤞for 2024👊💪

Bb3

Aim.. don't beleive it if you don't want to.. short the hell out of it and make some serious money.

Good luck.

BB3

Been in and out since 2010 but only accumulating since 2022. - 2.8m

I'm sure goddess has plenty of reason, and right for that matter, to poo poo the stock (not exactly been the best managed company, had the best negotiation outcomes, or had the best luck).. he is frustrated like most long term holders that the jam hasn't arrived yet. I, like he, have a massive holding due to both believing in the story / investment case and having to average down over so many years.

I'm thankful that I took both investment and 100% profit out around £4 but have watched oir expected early retirement dwindle into pennies.. The result is, we beleive this investment case is as sure a thing, as night follows day and have continued to accumulate time and time again when the green shoots have started to show..

No fruit yet, but when it does fruit, oh my god will I and he be making Jam.

Good luck to all... im frustrated as anyone, this should have happened years ago, but when it does, we be having toast that morning. X x. X

And as far as I can tell 2024 is more likely to be that morning than any other earlier year (as much as it frustrates me to say that).. hence you can love and hate at the same time, its just a point of perspective.. if you don't agree then your perspective is likely different.

BB3

Financially, navitas and rkh have no want or need to increase costs during the development of SL by farming into anything. They have plenty of work to be getting on with on their own prospects that are far better understood and closer to commercialisation.

I say again, rkh and navitas have no need to spend more cash paying for a drill in argos acerage, nor reduce mobilisation costs (project economics are already sound), nor increase their risk of rig issues and the wider project by going off script. So that leaves only one thing possible in my mind, that the terms on offer are so beneficial that we would be stupid to turn it down.. the reality is that the area would likely become available in the fullness of time because no one would pay to mobilise a rig for 1 or 2 Wells down to the FI..

Borders on the other hand.. forget it, no rig share as the spec need is so vastly different. Will likely try to get a farm in and rig off the back of the momentum navitas instigate by opening up the region with a multi year drilling campaign, but to share.. forget it.

For thoes that think there are bigger % rises to be had on arg and bor compared to rkh.. 😂🤣 they don't have a pot to pis in and will have to give away all the upside to get anywhere.

Rig downtime between phases will be spent on near field, isobel and Elaine. (Quite possibly a farm out or RBL debt for rkh, or both, to make the cash burn work).

BB3

BB3

Yea.. 30km with heated risers would be an issue I'd imagine.

Once oil is flowing from sealion and the drill rig has some down time, I'd expect multiple exploratory holes in isobel and any sealion tie in options so that the next leg of production can start to be understood and designed in the most value accretive way.

I'd be over the moon with 1 fpso.. 2 and we are all in wet dream territory.

BB3

I hope that's the case Flipper, maybe not sorted but certainly in the process.

The words "which is expected to".. would steer someone to think there has been talks and advice given that would bring about that "expectation", and an expectation in itself would also imply a non difinitive outcome curently.

Bb3

Apologies for the many I didn't namecheck.. you know who you are..

Fecm, space hopper, dazza the flash etc.etc.etc.

OilBrat, The poster that influenced me to get into the FI stocks, his overall assessment of the basin was spot on, but the blue sky financial outcome still has another 10 years to get there unfortunately (not his fault though).

MarlonMonkey, bar far the most knowledgeable results, drill and reservoir fountain of knowledge ever to grace the old iii board. Time for everyone and never lead anyone up the garden path for his own gain (as far as I know).

Gclark24?, or something like that.. the only person that shared information prior to an rns that seemed to know details that then checked out as true when the rns's finally came.. info was always very close to actual rns, but saved and made me a few Bob (thanks, I will always owe you a beer or two).

Blue horse, the best trader / investor on AIM I have ever met.. knew what he was doing and gave me plenty of advice around protecting capital being the no 1 priority for investing in exploration stocks.. very helpful and knowledgeable (on the information curve and always engaged).. however always had his own agenda and to this day I still think he was involved in the flash crash. Private chat groups and the infamous NM/sold post without explanation went some way to proving manipulation. Listen to but don't trust this one.!

Garbled - incoherent, no inside info, a massive fake that craves attention.

Borgo- utter wtat, professed to know inside info and knew Jack, dressed it up in cryptic stink to claim a different meaning after news.. wanted sheep, got sheep and proceeded to help loose the probably thousands. Would smash the guys face in if I ever met him (on behalf of others, never followed his utter crud).

Fezza, stu, rpoodle, jpdm, longtermthinker?, Paul Drayton, joe80?.. God so many good posters..

Anyways... IT'S FULL OF STARS 🤩❤️

BB3, been a long journey.

Anyone else on this.. been in it for a couple of weeks and seen a 100% move in the share price.

Confirmed a previous find with 12.4%, flow testing to follow as soon.

Not expecting news on Monday, but share price is building in anticipation of a massive helium find on US soil.. will be a takeover for many 100's of millions due to the location, size and concentration of the find.

DYOR as always.. but I know a few on here are also invested..

GO HELIUM

Going from memory,.. all taxes with the cash element of the pmo farm in have been duly paid and the remainder (the carry part) was set aside to be paid at the earliest of ..first oil / change in majority ownership (takeover) / upon payment of any dividend.

Rkh argued successfully that the tax on the carry benefit should only become due once benefit was realised (I.e. First oil) and thus this was not deemed payable in that tax year where as the cash element was.

Bb3