RE: Takeover Price20 Feb 2024 09:57
I don't think a takeover is even possible, there aren't enough main shareholders to build a consensus prior to any bid and the high % of private investors means the outcome of any bid will likely be a gamble.. and in my experience takeovers are only attempted when the buyer pretty much knows they will be able to succeed and at what price prior to starting the process.
The question I ask myself is why would someone attempt a takeover now, when last year would have been a much better opportunity. There is still just as much risk but the company is in a far better position to fend of an unwanted approach. Added to that is the unknown nature of the FIG reaction and approval along with the tax liability of some 60m that would become instantly due to them (not sure this has been formally negotiated away so still effectively in play, even though RKH lawyers don't think they will have to pay due to not receiving the benefits from the premier carry - no tax if there is no benefit/gain)
Navitas.. I would imagine there is a blocker in the farm in agreement to a hostile takeover, and unless the price is right for RKH shareholders then why would this gain any momentum.. added to that if offered in cash would hammer the navitas cash and funding position that would detrimentally impact the development of SL - not therefore advantageous unless its an all share offer, which would be even less appealing to RKH holders, as they have a bigger slice of sealion and the Falkland's through RKH etc.etc.
That said, I think a hostile approach could be made once FID has been taken as it would tick a lot of boxes for any would be suiter from a risk removed perspective that would ultimately allow them to have a go at the SP.
50p would be an insult, but I suspect anything north of 70p would get a lot of holders wanting the deal rather than waiting for £1 ON FIRST OIL 2 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD.
Just my opinion.
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