RE: Winx-118 Oct 2018 10:47
30% Geologic risk, difficult to assess as we do not have details of how that was arrived at, doubt the OEL, RMP or 88E would be chasing if a no hoper, look at record of successful wells on the Nanushuk in recent times.
Surrounded by Repsol, COP, OSL and BRPC lots of investment in infrastructure and co operation between companies keen to extract maximum value from resources.
400MMbbl not to be sneezed at if all works well.
even a well with four factors ranked at 9 out of 10 (near certainties) would get only 65%, try the calcs see how itworks.
"The voice of experience warns you that for exploration projects, do not use probabilities of 1.0—you simply cannot be that sure! "Absolute certainty" is 0.9 or 0.95.
The next step is to multiply the decimal fractions representing the four geological chance factors, which produces the probability of geological success, or Psg. "
http://wiki.aapg.org/Risk:_expected_value_and_chance_of_success