Member Info for Bridgedogg1

Bushy, I was speculating on POG @ $2500

POG doing well but guess that doesn’t matter today.. yes agree there will be a drop to the placing price. Many will see this as a great opportunity to get some heap shares in a gold producer but hard for current holders. Fully funded now to full production, no additional debt and exploration drilling next year. The value of Dugbe rising every day but won’t be realised for some time to come.

I’m also very unhappy about the gold hedging. A cost collar isn’t a full hedge but limits the upside if gold moves up massively. I assume it was pushed by CIG / lenders but does provide certainty over debt repayment which I guess is prudent.

A 10% discount for £24m is actually quite good. Also the majority of shares are going to CIG who won’t be selling them any time soon. On the other hand…FFS…

Should have read between the lines on production guidance, if 70k produced to end Q3 and fy guidance 80-90k then that’s a massive reduction on Q4 2022.

obviously the opening of the new pit is causing some issues for Q4 production.

We now own 51% of Pasafino… is that good? Seems to me it actually makes it more complicated but there must be a commercial reason for it. Probably with a view for full takeover at some point?

….

Currently difficult to gauge what the costs will be from the figures to date. We’ve only just gone to 24hr mining, there’s been training and equipment issues and they will be working through different quality ore. The vast majority of capital costs have now been paid so it’s just a case of ramping up and pouring the gold.

POG trading comfortably above $2000 should see the next leg up soon. By spring we could be making $1000 per oz profit and settling the debt 1 year early.

How much do you you value a company debt free making $200m profit per year?

What he said..

007 where is the info on artisanal depletion? I see the issues with weather, equipment and training for Q3 but can’t see this mentioned?

Yanfolila should be making approx $3m profit per month.

The company recently refinanced debt with additional $20m liquidity to get the new mine up and running. Gold production ramping up. We are EBITDA positive as at Q3.

New year we have to pay circa $6m per month in debt repayments. If we are fully operational then this shouldn’t be a problem, indeed there will be circa $50m profit after debt repayments. It all depends on production. POG is a real boost.

I believe a production update will move this quickly up to 20p. Hopefully something before the end of the year along with 2024 drilling plans as promised.

As for the chance of a placing, it’s highly unlikely unless there’s a real problem with the mine but we have been told that Koroussa is ‘on track for a full year of commercial production from FY-2024’ and ‘The plant is on track to operate on a consistent 24-hour basis during Q4-2023’ and gold at all time highs.

Now we've refinanced and moved out of the wet season the main risks are behind us imo.

Might generate some volume. Surely this can only go up?

Is that’s what’s prompted some sells? With gold still about above $2k? I guess there’s some phycological factor that’s doesn’t incorporate profit and loss.

I’ve been reading on the BRICs and Chinas plans to introduce a new currency backed by gold, China is buying so much gold atm as are many central banks. In September 78t of gold purchased by central banks vs 1t sold. There’s also the fact that China isn’t reporting all the gold it buys, amassing a stockpile which is still less than half of what the US holds. This should continue and with other financial and geopolitical trends keep gold moving upwards

Yep, IG down too

I don’t see much in the trades today or yesterday to indicate there’s a big seller in the background.

Most of those losses are from the gains this morning and had already been captured when you posted, I was expecting something worse! It is a real shame that gains weren’t held. US data tomorrow and Friday might see another rally.

Worth remembering these movements are reflecting anticipated monetary changes 3 months + in advance. Plenty to keep this above $2k im hoping.

Lol the article is just a rehash of the RNS, except for the special situations fund which would just be one of tens of parties they would be talking/begging to.

Wouldn’t quite say smashed when it’s still solidly above $2000.

I see Colin Bird and it’s a no

For me it’s difficult to fully blame the BOD. Paradox didn’t come off and that was the big risk we took. The well insurance turned out to be a master stroke that hasn’t been recognised by the market. Everything else is tinkering around the edges.

With the gold price where it is we can stick to the aggressive debt repayment with plenty to spare for drilling on all mines and progressing Dugbe. Then we can sell off Dugbe at the end of 2024, clear the debt and be making £150m+ free cash flow every year. Personally I’d like to see Dugbe developed but we’ve gotten stick with the wrong partner. A free carry 15% stake would be ok too. Lots of options.

The way the market is at the moment I’m not surprised people are waiting for production confirmation. Although that’s not the way to double your money it’s a safer bet.

Creeping up slowly. Should motor once volume returns.