Member Info for Bridgedogg1

Seems the large selling has dried up for now

Octopus and Liontrust have both been buying heavily since £2.50, I can’t see them dumping here due to a £11m impairment. Results will be ahead of expectations.cost overruns unexpectedly continued into H2. Investors may be bit miffed that this wasn’t indicated in the September update but still a Massive overreaction. Should be back to the £2.20 - £2.50 range fairly quickly.

Unfortunately nickel prices are falling through the floor. I thought $17000 would be the low but currently $16787. I read that Russia supply is also starting to come back online. We need Indonesia to make some serious supply cuts with export taxes, I think there is due to be an announcement on this at the end of the month. It’s difficult to go into a project if you don’t know I’m what the final price of the product will be. Hopefully a reversal will take place before the end of the year.

I assume additional debt funding will be available on slawson before the income is received as they can demonstrate it’s owed and coming. Problem is Zephyr has a lot of debt now. With credit cards maxed out, if paradox doesn’t come in as hoped for the mcap behind looks very high indeed, even at these levels.

That’s 5 non executive directors - I.e. people who are not working on this full time. Maybe 8 meetings a year. Wages for those are around £40k plus £100k for the chair.

My opinion is this will get bridge funding and/or the suppliers will agree delayed payment taking us to end Q1. La Mancha, Orion and Glencore will find the minimum to get this running and each increase their stake by around nominal 10-15%. That dilutes everyone else by 50%.

The banks and other investors have sunk too much into this to walk away or let anyone else’s pick it up on the cheap.

Decline is rough. Slawson expected to bring Boepd to slightly above where is was 6 months ago.

I get around :-)

Got stung on HZM by 30% today. Need this at 7p please!

Just raise £10m at 0.25p and all sorted?

Buying under 10p seems like a good shout but with the timeline pushed back a month atleast it’s anything but a certainty

Comparing to the previous RNS todays does follow quite logically. Without financing construction expenditure has to be slashed. The key is getting access to the remaining senior debt which requires the updated cost schedule and additional funding. We don’t know how much is required or how they are going to raise it but it’s still a bit project with some value. The shareholders will be squeezed either by equity raise or royalty, or both.

I can see an increase to the convertible notes by $100m depending on the cost report.

UPDATE ON IRAQ-TÜRKIYE PIPELINE

The Iraq-Türkiye pipeline (‘ITP’) shut on 25 March 2023 While there continues to be positive language from the Federal Government of Iraq and Türkiye regarding opening, Genel has received no guidance from the KRG regarding the status or timing of the pipeline reopening

We’ve already had a few slawson updates including the estimated flow rates and then coming on line, the market didn’t react to either. I’m not sure the next announcement confirming the flow rates will be any different. Material update on 36-2 will be the only thing that gets this moving imo

I don’t understand why people think the share price is so low? The mcap is £80m and all Prem has is a delayed pilot plant which won’t generate and money once it’s complete. Not exactly the deal if the century is it?

The only useful comment on this board is a single line with the output data. Haven’t you all got better things to do than regurgitate the same carp for each other?

I feel like this will now drift until news, especially as I bought some yesterday.

Jcjo07 to work out whether or not a company will or will not go bust you need to ignore the share price and look at the underlying financials. I’m not saying it will or it won’t, just that the share price has nothing to do with it (unless there are equity fund raising requirements or debt linked to share conversion)

So I’ve been looking at the terms of the original deal, which I’ve tried to set out below, and a few things struck me as important.

Firstly $150m of tranche B senior debt seems to have not yet been drawn? I am assuming that additional funds / progress are required to meet the conditions for this to be released?

Secondly the terms of the convertible bonds to La Macha and Orion include a surplus cash sweep of 85% following completion until paid off. This seems important as it has implications for any potential royalty agreement.

Thirdly we’ve already raised an additional $70m and drawn $25m for cost overruns. Is this included in the 35% increased capital costs or in addition to?

Fourth the financing was completed on assumptions of Nickel prices at lower than the current depressed price

US$197 Million equity fundraise @ 7.5p

Equity US$135 La Mancha

Equity US$50 Orion

Equity US$7m Glencore

Placing $75m

Convertible notes $50m Orion

Convertible notes $15m La Mancha

fixed interest rate of 11.75% per annum, which shall be capitalised until Project Completion and payable in cash (subject to available cashflows

Maturity Date, being 3 months after the final maturity date of Tranche A of the Proposed Senior Debt Facility, the Orion Noteholder and/or La Mancha may, at their option, convert the Convertible Notes, partially or wholly, into Ordinary Shares up to the total amount outstanding under the Convertible Notes at a conversion price equal to 125% of the UK Placing Price

Under the Convertible Loan Notes there is a cash sweep of 85% of excess cash (being available cash for distribution from Araguaia less required interest and principal payments on the Convertible Notes) to apply on each repayment date from Project Completion onwards

Cost overrun debt facility $25m Orion

Senior Debt $346.2m various banks

Tranche A 3M USD LIBOR (or equivalent) + 1.8%

Tranche B 3M USD LIBOR (or equivalent) + 4.75%

1st drawdown $146.2m m Received 8 Dec 2022

2nd drawdown €50m 27 Feb 2023

Open offer $8m

Oct 2022 Subsequent placing $70m @ 95p Glencore & La Mancha- the Fundraise is anticipated to allow the Company to draw down on its senior debt facility

The feasibility study disclosed in the Araguaia Technical Report demonstrates robust economics with the Stage 1 process plant producing 14,000 tonnes of nickel per year and generating a Post-tax IRR of 28.1%; Post-tax NPV(8%) of US$740 million; a Payback Period of approximately 3 years; and Net Cashflow of US$2.582bn, based on a market consensus nickel price of US$16,800 per tonne.

i’ve got an idea let’s build a pilot plant to access lithium quickly while the price is high and prove how much this high acreage is worth. let’s take money from a huge chinese company i’m sure they don’t just want to take this from us

1 year later… ****…