Member Info for Breq

Liked the emphasis again on the resin sulphate route lowering capital costs. Interesting China not mentioned. Maybe UK gov ready to offer substantial funding post Jan 1 end of EU state aid rules. No brainer for UK gov as will ensure UK gets high value magnet manufacturing industry if Pensana's NdPr processed in UK. Also Baroness N appointment as NED maybe in advance of UK gov funding. Just speculation. Guessing China will be involved in Angola mine construction as they have the experience there.
Paul A in difficult position until Jan. If the resin sulphate route works and a UK based refinery set up then Pensana can increase the mine throughput to say 3 m tonnes at .5% NdPr so 15,000 tonnes NdPr. That about $1bn of revenue at current prices before NdPr losses and the UK refinery cut. Maybe 25% off for that so say $750 m of revenue. At $100 a tonne OPEX cost ( $300m) that's profit before royalties and tax of $450m. That's a totally different (higher) figure to the PFS numbers. So as not to mislead the market prior to the Jan report, PA can only say so much. A proven processing workstream and funding will move Pensana into a totally different value range. But that has to be done before PA can talk through the 'new' value of the company.

Maybe the BFS will show a big increase in mined tonnage now Pensana are looking at exporting carbonate. Carbonate tonnage is around one quarter of concentrate by volume. So 4 times less cargo space needed on the trains.
The surface level weathered mineral resource showed 150 years of resource to mine at the PFS concentrate rate. They could quadruple the annual tonnage mined and still only use the same cargo space on the trains and still mine for almost 40 years, mining just the surface level resource.
Maybe they'll have Stage 1, 2, 3 and 4 being built every 2 years as 2 years of production pays for each stage. In fact Stage 3 and 4 could be built together as annual profits would be twice as high after Stage 2. The profit figures are huge if they could scale up. The concentrate PFS gave $140m of annual pre tax profit. Carbonate profit probably much higher. 4 times that higher carbonate figure possible ? 4 times $200m ? = $800m annual profit ? Sounds way overoptimistic but the figures to date support something like that.
Is the demand there ? Could be if European and US buyers insist on sustainable suppliers. Hopefully we will know over the next 10 days if some scale up is a possibility. PA said in the latest interview, one car alone VW's ID3 needed all Pensana's current targeted output.

Interesting announcement from UK's Britishvolt today. Setting up a 30 GW sized battery factory in Wales next year.

Should add competition for Armadale's customers. Chinese customers must be worried new graphite mines start sending product to Europe and US. Maybe MOUs and offtakes will be on good terms.

Thanks for that Torn.
I see their 17 Feb ASX announcement gave a $70m increase if they process the concentrate into a carbonate so giving a $200m new cost.
Good questions you are asking them and thanks for offering to share.

Cost of mine $270m ? Thought it was $131m as per Nov 19 presentation. Has it changed? Where did you get the local grid transmission info?

Yes it's tough being a Wey shareholder from an information perspective although the share price has done OK.

The BOD actually pay themselves fairly modest salaries. £403,000 all in last year. And they would argue the options only become valuable if the share price does well. Their options are about 6% of issued share capital. So for me they pass the ethical test.

What do we know:
The BOD have been pretty tight lipped about updating shareholders on trading even though we are in an incredibly important time for online learning.
The BOD have sold shares but these sales are pretty inconsequential to their total holdings when options are included.
By selling shares they appear to be sending out a 'we think this is a great price to cash in some of our chips'. It is almost as if they didn't want the share price to keep rising.

So what could actually be going on:
Either a sale of the company at say 35p a share. The share price was heading that way and could have endangered the deal by 35p not offering a big enough premium.
A big acquisition funded by an institution backed rights issue at say 25p. As the share price went through 30p, the discount was beginning to look too great.

We shall see. My complete guess is a sale of the company, as good for DM's heirs and the CEO was already a seller late last year. Wey is an obvious acquisition candidate for a deep pocketed acquirer to use as a base to build an a large online education provider. Amazon Class ?
All the above is amiable speculation and should not be taken seriously.

The only way for Uber to be seriously profitable is to move onto autonomous vehicles. But to reassure passengers, and also the law, they need a Guident type safety net. Not sure what Uber or others can do except work with IP protected Guident.

Thinking if by year end Guident has trials running with Waymo, Apple, Tesla, Uber or similar then a US valuation of the company would probably be in the 9 figures. Safety as a Service. All IP protected and legally mandated.

The full annual report is on the website. When I looked it was erroneously labeled as an interim report in the Results Centre section.
A few things:
Bellascura - suggests US insurance companies will like X-P02R as it's 70% cheaper over the COPD treatment period than competitors. Cost is a big thing to private US health insurers and especially Medicare which has cut the payment to companies which provide a complete COPD service ( renting and support of oxygen concentrators). Difficult to see how these insurers wouldn't push for X-PL02R over competitor products that have to be replaced as the disease progresses.

Guident - The team's building. My guess is Guident is having initial early transaction and so quality people are happy to join. Florida has mandated Guident type support. Which means, practically, all of the US has mandated it. You couldn't sell a car in Texas which could never be driven into Florida. Which also means global car companies would buy Guident software so their cars, even if sold outside the US, could be resold second hand into the US.

Salarius - Microsalt sales to 3 snack companies so far. 25 others trialling. SaltMe to begin sales this quarter. Just guessing but maybe sales to big supermarket chains in H2. Albertson's, the second largest US supermarket ($62bn sales) has a former Director of Product Development on the Salarius board.

Crazy cheap at this price. Any one portfolio company could be worth 10 times the current market cap by year end. And all IP protected.

Possibly the most important part:
'the bank indicated the Project could comfortably sustain leverage of US$230 million, or approximately 60% of the total project capital cost. We strongly believe that, with negotiation, this number can be significantly improved.'
Significantly improved!
Sounds like dilution could be minimised. £30m current cap against £1.4bn of value.

Yes decent. It's spooky but TEK seem to be ideally set in 3 out of it's 4 divisions.

Bellascura - obvious
Salarius - less sodium so lower blood pressure. High blood pressure makes people more vulnerable to not surviving Covid 19. Could be that SaltMe gets a much bigger share of the snack market than it would have pre C-19. Going forward people will be so much more conscious of their health. Third parties might have to use Microsalt to keep market share.
Guident - more autonomous vehicles to reduce risk of infection spreading and able to operate whatever the conditions.

Cometh the plague cometh the company, as NCYT and others have found. Good thing about TEK is its products will help people going forward for years to come.

Today I have mostly been buying Petrotal. Only buying oil companies on EV/EBITDAs of less than 2 at $35 oil, with no debt and minimal decommissioning costs. With field lives no less than 10 years.

Sell me more shares tomorrow.

Yes RS, poor old LuckCounts seems so angry. All his accusations are so easily disprovable yet he keeps making them. Poor chap. Hell knows no fury like a LuckCounts.

It may have escaped Landie/LuckCounts notice that Petrotal has been producing and selling record amounts of oil in Q4, hence easily able to meet capital commitments.

Petrotal announces an accounting error that has already resulted in the leaving of the past CFO. The VAT receivable position has stayed flat over Q3. From $ 9.26m at 30 June to $9.9m at 30 Sept. That's despite all the VAT payed out on drilling expenses in Q3, which will be reclaimed from VAT on sales. So not much (anything?) to see here in the medium or long term.
But whats really weird is these posters all coming out today. They are not long and they are not short. They just want to bash the share. Angry they haven't shared in Petrosal's success to date ? Or maybe just angry ?

I441,

Thanks. Useful. Re the lack of BTC mined per month per machine info, maybe Argo are good at tweaking the machines to get higher rates out of them. Keep it quiet. Don't show your hand to the competition. Don't have your 'tweaker' head hunted. Just speculation on my part.

Hi LEXION,
Yes I think so. No obvious other reason Jadestone should be sold off. Still making around $45 a barrel profit even at these current modest oil prices. Other things seem OK - they seem confident on operator transfer and wells for H2.
You could argue Rockrose is cheaper at anything under £20 a share but in reality investors are selling the family silver to try and buy gold.
One argument in favour of Jadestone - my thinking is future deals in Asia may be less competitive than in the North Sea where there are other savvy operators and PE interest. Jadestone might surprise us with another big deal around the end the year as by then it should have around $ 100m in net cash and more operating experience.
I'm own and intend to hold both going forward.

Share sales to provide cash for RRE relist in case of lowish opening price under £ 15.

Risk tolerance.
Jadestone is a cash rich, cash flow generating producer with upside from Vietnam and future acquisitions. I'm a shareholder.
I3E may not get the flow rates they expect from this summer's drilling campaign. I hope they do. I'm a shareholder.