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poortrader, yes TEK is one of the few shares on AIM that doesn't have to do anything highly unlikely, like say drilling for oil and finding a massive strike, to reasonably 10 bag on what we know already.

Salarius could be worth £55m on its own (£1 a share) if it signs up a few big snack companies.

Belluscura should significantly increase in value on FDA approval.

Guident may have a core IP position hence the very credible auto execs joining it.

Lucyd is a wild card but could be in the right place at the right time. People love cutting the number of gadgets they need - headphones plus glasses just to glasses.

I see on the other board one poster in particular is trying to talk down Guident's potential. Comments like suggesting revenues are years away. He neither understands the automotive industry nor software patents.

Car companies have to plan 5 to 10 years in advance of any new models reaching the market. Their lead times for components, new factories, robots etc are that long. So although autonomous cars probably are that far away, the car companies have to line up their components - both hardware and software - many years in advance. I see Guident suggest selling commences this summer. That would tie in with likely fully autonomous car sales in 2025 to 2030.

A car company would not risk spending billions on hardware development without tying in ( licensing) the necessary software.

Looking forward to tomorrow's annual report - must be released within 4 months of end of year - hope it gives some guidance on Marathon progress/timing.

Like the way they refer to it as a commercial order. Also like the way they can't name the customer - standard practice for large corporations. Maybe their CEO with big snack career experience can open those kind of doors. Here's hoping.

Crazy low current market cap ( £ 6m) if they can.

Lexion,

You're right. So maybe over 20,000 by year end. Hopefully a good year for shareholders as the market derisks improvements in Montara.

What I find interesting is if PEs for companies like Jadestone and RockRose expand from the current crazy 1 type level they are on now to say 5 to 10. That would be on the basis they prove the concept of buying older fields and also by generating cash they'll be a first port of call for any majors looking to divest. Also they'll have the legal expertise in place to make any divestment/acquisition relatively uncomplicated.

the_s,

It's from today's RNS.

Montara doing over 12,000 bod's now.
Stag at 2,500 plus.
49H Stag infill, currently expected to do over 1,000.
Q4 Montara infill expected at 3,000.

So that's how we get to 18,000 bod by year end.

Now debt free.
At current oil prices 18,000 bod by end of year = more than $ 300 m cash profit per year + $75m cash in bank.
All for current market cap of £225 m. EV will equal much less than 1 times cash flow after infill drilling costs going into 2020.

Now if RockRose and Jadestone merged then we'd have one serious player. Over 55,000 boed within a couple of years just on the current assets.
Around $550,000,000 cash profit a year after decommissioning costs. Plus by then over a half billion dollars in the bank.

All for a current combined market cap of £ 330 m. Think of the $ bn deals they could do then.

poortrader,

You might be right about Guident but looking at the patent it could be that the car companies have to do business with Guident. It's patent seems quite central to autonomous vehicles. Maybe that's why these credible auto execs have joined the Guident board.
Could simply be a legal thing. Tek spotted the patent and licensed it knowing car companies had no choice but to do business.

I111,

That website you mention is an unrelated Spanish company.

S78,

One page. No company or people background. Could have been created yesterday for all we know.

Seriously hope it is because Ebers is in stealth mode.

Wow can you do that Randomchancer ?
Have a post removed just because it doesn't support your own uber positive claims ?
Maybe it gets reposted if LSE see it isn't offensive or whatever ?
It is weird that whenever someone posts something of quality it is quickly submerged by the usual tripe.

Yes - the non presence of Ebers is interesting. Hope that is just because it is in stealth mode.

Sensically,

You wrote a very good post which has just disappeared. How does that work ? You removed it ? Some moderator removed it ?
Then followed by all the usual posting stuff.
Interesting.
Anyway if you are reading this then thanks for your post.

Completely agree.
No certainty NXP001 will pass bio equivalence trials. Cambridge Independent had an article a few days ago quoting Dan stating dissolution some 10 times greater than the existing drug. How will that effect bio equivalence ? Maybe, just maybe, NXP001 will overshoot. I'm completely guessing the reason why Nuformix is 6 months behind schedule relative to its IPO timeline on this trial is that they've been working on an exipient to slow things down to avoid overshooting.That's complete speculation on my behalf.
The good news is there are now 3 projects in active development and cash coming in from at least 1 of these over the next few months.
Is NFX good value if NXP001 fails bio equivalence. Yes INMHO because it will almost certainly fail by overshooting which will enable other uses as Dan has mentioned. And the overshoot can probably be reduced with further work.
But as you say NXP001 is not a certainty.
Stuff that makes me wary - and this from a holder of a 7 figure number of shares:
No broker for over a year - hence my trial theory.
No pdf presentation on website since Oct 2017.
Insufficiently worded latest RNS - vague on amount and timing.
Lots of verbal chat on Vox and Proactive but no attendance at share evenings where investors could ask specific questions.
Who are Ebers Tech ? Maybe just been set up, but no mention of them elsewhere on the internet. Maybe that's typical in that space ? Maybe they were set up on the back on what NFX could add ? All just speculation on my part.

But that said if NFX's technology is anything like is claimed - and I think it is hence being a shareholder - this company, assuming sufficient cash coming in this year to pay the bills, should be very valuable in time and we will see the 9 or 10 figure valuations being suggested.

Sensically,

You wrote a very good post which has just disappeared. How does that work ? You removed it ? Some moderator removed it ?
Then followed by all the usual posting stuff.
Interesting.
Anyway if you are reading this then thanks for your post.

Completely agree.
No certainty NXP001 will pass bio equivalence trials. Cambridge Independent had an article a few days ago quoting Dan stating dissolution some 10 times greater than the existing drug. How will that effect bio equivalence ? Maybe, just maybe, NXP001 will overshoot. I'm completely guessing the reason why Nuformix is 6 months behind schedule relative to its IPO timeline on this trial is that they've been working on an exipient to slow things down to avoid overshooting.That's complete speculation on my behalf.
The good news is there are now 3 projects in active development and cash coming in from at least 1 of these over the next few months.
Is NFX good value if NXP001 fails bio equivalence. Yes INMHO because it will almost certainly fail by overshooting which will enable other uses as Dan has mentioned. And the overshoot can probably be reduced with further work.
But as you say NXP001 is not a certainty.
Stuff that makes me wary - and this from a holder of a 7 figure number of shares:
No broker for over a year - hence my trial theory.
No pdf presentation on website since Oct 2017.
Insufficiently worded latest RNS - vague on amount and timing.
Lots of verbal chat on Vox and Proactive but no attendance at share evenings where investors could ask specific questions.
Who are Ebers Tech ? Maybe just been set up, but no mention of them elsewhere on the internet. Maybe that's typical in that space ? Maybe they were set up on the back on what NFX could add ? All just speculation on my part.

But that said if NFX's technology is anything like is claimed - and I think it is hence being a shareholder - this company, assuming sufficient cash coming in this year to pay the bills, should be very valuable in time and we will see the 9 or 10 figure valuations being suggested.

Maybe it's just a group of smaller shareholders acting together.

Say 5 people all bought 5 million shares each around the 2p to 2.5p level over the last 6 months. Then flipped most of them out at 3.5p on average over the last few days. Keep a million or two each going forward ( free shares). No need to disclose anything. Selling their last few hundred thousand. Buyers off them at 4 p maybe cutting their losses at these levels.
There are quite a few trading groups like this.

A4U,

Hopefully you're right re the trial but obviously entirely dependent on whether the results are blinded until completion.

The thing is we don't know how big the Ebers upfront payment is because we haven't been told. Nor have we been told the timing. Was it paid on signing or is it paid on initiation of work ?
Until we know - and we will in time, hopefully soon - we're just guessing. It's 'significant', but that could be anything between £500,000 to £10m.

Also, we don't know for sure the NXP001 bio equivalence results - due late May it sounds. What if NXP001 is absorbed so well it fails bio equivalence on a technicality by being too good. In reality Nuformix/Newsummit could use say half the dose but maybe they would have to run new trials. We shareholders don't know. We're just guessing at the moment.

So we've got to be patient. NFX is extraordinarily cheap if its technology is anything like it appears to be represented but its going to take another month or two before we'll know exactly what situation we're now in. Hence the share price not shooting up as some expect.

Hoping Ebers Tech approached NFX. Maybe NFX is getting known internationally as the company to approach to see if they can make your molecule better. How many other $billion markets could be addressable?

Also like the fact NFX are a very unleaky ship. Who knew this was coming.

A4U,
Not quite sure if you're suggesting NFX might be bid for soon after proof of concept with NXP001 but I hope not, as much more value could be generated by progressing other co-crystal candidates as you suggest. Not least NXP002 which would have a value at least equal to the figures you suggest after further work.
NXP002 alone could be worth £ 100m in just 12 months ( Dan's interview suggested that is when it might first be proof of concepted in humans).

Oops got my calcs wrong. Would be $ 45 m royalty per year as only 20% of 7.5 m ( not 11 m) patients.

Still, striking potential income. Any thoughts ?

Anyone got a good handle on the potential size of the NXP001 market ?

I can see 21.5m patients as at 2016 as per the NFX presentation ( Oct 2017 .... aaarrrhhh). Say 15 m of these are in Europe, US and Asia (including China). Maybe NXP001 would help 50% of these ( up to 75% of patients reduce or discontinue chemotherapy according to the same ( Oct 2017 aaarrrhhh again) presentation. That would be 11 m patients. If, with their cheaper and maybe better absorbed NXP001 they get 20% of these patients within 3 years of launch, that's around 2 m patients. At say an average of $ 200 ( cheaper than current marketed product) per annum per patient that's $ 400 m of sales annually. Guessing the average royalty at 15% - its 10% already agreed in China and just say 20% in RoW because it will have passed current trials and so be derisked - then that's $ 60 m a year.

All relies on passing current bio equivalence trials.

Too high ? Too low ? Reasonable ?

Difficult to know why NXP001 wouldn't reach those sales within 3 years as Nuformix's targeted partners have extensive oncology distribution networks. Any thoughts or insights ( gained from the company?) much appreciated.

I know I'm going to be accused of being a sycophant but the more I think about what AA did the more I respect it.

He was the only O&G CEO/Chairman who tried to bring immediate cash value to both the incredibly unfortunate LCF bond holders and also IOG shareholders. He had to wade through personal adverse comment by the IOG board, unusually apparent uncooperative action by the Administrators, and a quite a few negative posts on this and no doubt other BBs. He founded and runs a cash rich company which this year should produce over $ 200m in cash flow. He could have stuck to the comfortable environment of Mayfair and enjoyed all that life offers. But he didn't. Much respect.