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Maybe it's just a group of smaller shareholders acting together.
Say 5 people all bought 5 million shares each around the 2p to 2.5p level over the last 6 months. Then flipped most of them out at 3.5p on average over the last few days. Keep a million or two each going forward ( free shares). No need to disclose anything. Selling their last few hundred thousand. Buyers off them at 4 p maybe cutting their losses at these levels.
There are quite a few trading groups like this.
The thing is we don't know how big the Ebers upfront payment is because we haven't been told. Nor have we been told the timing. Was it paid on signing or is it paid on initiation of work ?
Until we know - and we will in time, hopefully soon - we're just guessing. It's 'significant', but that could be anything between £500,000 to £10m.
Also, we don't know for sure the NXP001 bio equivalence results - due late May it sounds. What if NXP001 is absorbed so well it fails bio equivalence on a technicality by being too good. In reality Nuformix/Newsummit could use say half the dose but maybe they would have to run new trials. We shareholders don't know. We're just guessing at the moment.
So we've got to be patient. NFX is extraordinarily cheap if its technology is anything like it appears to be represented but its going to take another month or two before we'll know exactly what situation we're now in. Hence the share price not shooting up as some expect.
Hoping Ebers Tech approached NFX. Maybe NFX is getting known internationally as the company to approach to see if they can make your molecule better. How many other $billion markets could be addressable?
Also like the fact NFX are a very unleaky ship. Who knew this was coming.
A4U,
Not quite sure if you're suggesting NFX might be bid for soon after proof of concept with NXP001 but I hope not, as much more value could be generated by progressing other co-crystal candidates as you suggest. Not least NXP002 which would have a value at least equal to the figures you suggest after further work.
NXP002 alone could be worth £ 100m in just 12 months ( Dan's interview suggested that is when it might first be proof of concepted in humans).
Anyone got a good handle on the potential size of the NXP001 market ?
I can see 21.5m patients as at 2016 as per the NFX presentation ( Oct 2017 .... aaarrrhhh). Say 15 m of these are in Europe, US and Asia (including China). Maybe NXP001 would help 50% of these ( up to 75% of patients reduce or discontinue chemotherapy according to the same ( Oct 2017 aaarrrhhh again) presentation. That would be 11 m patients. If, with their cheaper and maybe better absorbed NXP001 they get 20% of these patients within 3 years of launch, that's around 2 m patients. At say an average of $ 200 ( cheaper than current marketed product) per annum per patient that's $ 400 m of sales annually. Guessing the average royalty at 15% - its 10% already agreed in China and just say 20% in RoW because it will have passed current trials and so be derisked - then that's $ 60 m a year.
All relies on passing current bio equivalence trials.
Too high ? Too low ? Reasonable ?
Difficult to know why NXP001 wouldn't reach those sales within 3 years as Nuformix's targeted partners have extensive oncology distribution networks. Any thoughts or insights ( gained from the company?) much appreciated.
I know I'm going to be accused of being a sycophant but the more I think about what AA did the more I respect it.
He was the only O&G CEO/Chairman who tried to bring immediate cash value to both the incredibly unfortunate LCF bond holders and also IOG shareholders. He had to wade through personal adverse comment by the IOG board, unusually apparent uncooperative action by the Administrators, and a quite a few negative posts on this and no doubt other BBs. He founded and runs a cash rich company which this year should produce over $ 200m in cash flow. He could have stuck to the comfortable environment of Mayfair and enjoyed all that life offers. But he didn't. Much respect.
rxdav, Glad to raise a smile on this somewhat crummy day for the IOG share price.
Can't help but think IOG and RRE should be working together on this. IOG obviously pretty desperately need money and RRE are probably still keen to buy in (unless the falling UK gas price or some possible really horrible clause in the IOG/LOG loan contract is putting them off).
Me I'd offer for the shares and sweeten the deal with some kind of royalty component - if the IOG gas fields are good then IOG shareholders get some of that upside. At the moment they are just being diluted too much as I see it.
Firstly, very sorry for all IOG shareholders. None of us want fellow investors to suffer losses.
Anyway, changing the subject, a few weeks ago I offered a neighbour I'm very fond of ,Col RX Dav, £ 1 m for his house, In Orchard Grove. I'd heard he had a high interest mortgage from a bank which had just gone into administration because it couldn't pay its depositors. The mortgage repayments started in a few months and the Colonel had no obvious income to meet these repayments. He rejected the offer as derisory and when he heard I'd gone to the bank and offered to buy the mortgage off them so some of the depositors' money could be repaid ASAP he retold everyone who would listen I was seeking to take advantage of the depositors.
Today I heard he had agreed to sell half his house for £ 250,000. So half the 'derisory' price I had offered just a few weeks ago. So I went round to talk to him but he wouldn't answer the door. He was obviously watching one of his favourite films The Deer Hunter as I could see through the lace curtains a man holding a pistol to his head and the sound of manic laughter.
Walking away I bumped into his neighbour General A Alamein who had tried to help and guide poor old Colonel Dav in his troubles. Apparently during his military service Colonel Dav was taken captive by the sinister cult Badisgood and whilst in captivity unspeakable advantages were taken both of his body and mind. For example he was stripped, his hands and feet tied behind him, and made to type out on a computer Badisgood Badisgood hundreds and hundreds of times. Whilst in captivity, a crack team including Majors Dunderhead, Workover, UnityTwo, Siberian, Jimmy00 and Denzill bravely managed to reach the Colonel and show him an escape route. He refused, suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, and kept typing Badisgood Badisgood Badisgood.
rxdav,
Ha ha love it. I should think with you sitting round the board table there would be some pretty sweaty AIM company directors. ( Not IOG I emphasise.)
Come to think of it maybe there's something there - 'Improve your corporate governance or we send in the Colonel !'
t35,
The Guardian article was quoting the S&W report not just spouting 'media tittle tattle'. It's S&W who consider suspicious transactions involving connected persons have occurred.
600T,
No one has suggested IOG have acted improperly. It's just they may be at the end of a chain other links of which involve pretty murky financial wrong doing. The problem is, we the investors don't really know how that could affect us or prospective partners. Will prospective partners just decide it's safer to keep their distance until there's more clarity. Any prospective partner would have to be cash rich (like RRE) or with access to good banking arrangements. Maybe their boards will just say 'stay clear until we know what the legal situations are'.
By the way the latest guidance by AA of RRE is RRE will be producing about $ 200m a year in cash flow post Marathon, so buying IOG or it's assets should be doable even allowing for a higher share price offer. And it has something close to $ 100m in unencumbered cash in the bank right now.
I must emphasise IOG have been and must be acting as they think best, but with everything going on with LCF and LOG maybe it's time for PIs to be better informed of all the potential issues so they can make their investment decisions with maximum info ?
Interesting article in the Guardian today covering more grim LCF news.
S&W the (LOG and) LCF Administrators report 'a number of highly suspicious transactions involving a small group of connected people'.
That's why I've yet to buy IOG shares - if ( and we'll only know for sure when everything has gone through the courts) the whole LCF thing was a complete scam what was LOG's role ? There must be concerns as the chairman has been arrested and the majority of money lent by LCF to LOG has gone into situations where the money looks irrecoverable.
How does that effect IOG ? Could S&W take the position that, as this may be a crime situation, all funds should be returned to the administrator ASAP ? Would they do this ? Could they under the IOG/LOG loan contract ? I know S&W appeared supportive of IOG last week but recently they've requested Surge (the marketing company paid by LCF) return the commissions they were paid. Maybe S&W are finding out more as the days go by and getting tougher on third parties.
I'm wary that IOG didn't even want to show cash rich RRE the IOG/LOG loan documentation. Why ? Was there a clause in it which could be a vulnerability ? Who knows, but I think soon the IOG shareholders should be given some clarity. Maybe its time private investors who seem to be the bulk of shareholders ( that's owners) in IOG should be allowed to propose a board observer to IOG's board.
rxdav would you step up to the role ? You've got the military training to hopefully do things properly.
Thanks rxdav re the humour.
Actually this may surprise you but I don't really see myself as fighting the RRE corner even though I do have quite a few shares in them.
I'd like IOG to do well also. I'm just waiting for more clarity on their funding if they stay independent. ( I understand I'll have to almost certainly pay up.)
rxdav, Captain Longside left a few minutes ago. His last words were: I'm just going outside and may be some time.
I don't think you're correct Longside.
LOG have been placed in Administration not Receivership. So the Administrator has time ( 8 weeks I think) to take over management of LOG and come up with a credible plan to maximise recovery for the creditors (LCF). Hence as of today the IOG/LOG CLNs are in the LOG Administrator's possession, and for the time being control, hence why RRE approached the LOG Administrator to buy them.
LOG Administrators were appointed on 19 March so the CLNs will be in their possession and control until around 14 May. I think the whole idea of Administration is to ring fence assets whilst the Administrator works out what best to do.
So LCF can't call their loan in immediately I think and don't in any usual sense of the word 'control' the CLNs as you have stated. Your posts are in contravention of Administration law and your misguided claims should be ignored by all interested readers.
As a general point is it fair for you to mislead so many readers with your gross inaccuracies ?
Thanks rxdav for the background. That's a relief.
Don't worry about my dear mama. She's quite familiar with military matters. In fact her family are the reason we're not all communicating in French.
rxdav it's time to hand back that service revolver you 'forgot' to hand over to the quartermaster on retirement as there's too much danger of you shooting yourself in the foot with your unlikely opinions.
RRE's 7Ps result in a share price up over 130% this last year
IOG's 7Ps result in a share price .... well let's just say the white flag has been flown
Longside are you sure about the CLNs ? On March 25 the RNS stated RRE had approached the LOG Administrator to buy the loans, not the LCF Administrator so just from that, and I would think anyway, the CLNs are still LOG's ( in Administration) possession.