Member Info for Breq

mazik
The annual accounts are audited - by haysmacintyre.

Why did you state they weren’t?

Agree lack of broker is crummy.

Thanks RA. Class analysis. But can’t see Finncap figures in any Finncap research.
Maybe Finncap soon to be announced as broker? Let’s hope.

IH,
Many thanks. Class post.
First read through suggests to me that NXP001 will have to be tested in the same quantity as the current on market drug and tested for bioequivalence in both fasted and fed volunteers. Seems blood readings can’t exceed 25% more than the current drug. I’m guessing Quotient’s pre trial formulation work included choosing an exipient which combined with the cocrystal keeps the absorption at no more than 25% above.
Will read some more. Not sure how if using the bioequivalence route to gain market approval NFX can in the first instant make claims of our drug can be taken without food. Maybe they can.

Oct 2017 ( yes really) presentation graphic on page 13 suggests NXP001 dissoltion rate around 20% greater than current on market product. Could that be an issue or is it entirely positive ? Jay you’re the man with contact to Dan - heard anything on this ? - any info you can share much appreciated.

Bullish post on adv late yesterday. Doesn’t say anything we don’t know but interesting to see if it lifts share price on Monday.
Million dollar question is will NXP001 meet bioequivalence in March. Well 100 million dollar question really.

Immediate R & D is covered IF they get the £500,000 China money on time. IMHO.

Can't see how the figures add up otherwise.

Dan 'avoiding further fund-raising' - why risk zero cash for say 5% dilution ? Gamblers by nature ?

Find the lack of broker and out of date presentation disappointing and inexplicatible. Lack of broker means no third party info source. Just Dan and his VOX and TV chat. Plus RNSs obviously.

Thanks for your input IH but the net current assets at 30 Sep are £511,015. That includes the £500,000 received in Dec but not the £200,000 owed as a convertible. They're burning about £30,000 a month on salaries, rent and stuff, so net current assets down to £391,015 by end of Jan. But they've got to pay Quotient for the March PK NXP001 trial. The prospectus says £480,000 of costs but some of these will have been paid before 30 Sep. So maybe £300,000 for a 12 person PK trial ?
My point is the board is betting the £500,000 from China will come in soonish. But they say its results based and also we know how slow it was coming in last time. Odd situation for the board to put the company in. Low funds. No broker announced. Also much of the stuff NFX does is outsourced so surely they have time to do a pdf presentation like other listed companies even if they can only make time once a year.

$ 30m cash flow every 3 months.

I'm thinking 3 million shares tendered for at £ 7 a share in April.

Doesn't matter that AA will end up with over 30%. Just has to get LSE approval.

That would bring share count down to 9.5 m shares.

Could be more news in 2018. Dan said in recent vox interview he expected 'exciting' data on NXP002 soon.

Don't know if it will boost the share price. Kind of agree with those saying Q1 2019 for bioequivalence data on NXP001 is the start of share price move up.

Hey Punters,
Seen UK healthcare companies doing deals with Chineses companies. From memory, payments abroad have to be explained to and approved by Chinese authorities. What with Chinese holidays, might explain the over 30 days the £500,000 has taken to be received. Just reality. Don’t know about this specific case.
GLA
Breq ( long NFX)

Weird. Everyone's talking about how cheap the share price is. But no one seems interested in the referrals side of things. Keywords Studios gets bid up to over a billion market cap. FFI has the same strategy in film/tv and no one seems interested. Early signs - latest annual report - are the referrals strategy is working at FFI.
If referrals work in film/tv then FFI isn't just going back to the IPO price.

Thinking investors are not focusing on NXP001 enough.
Even China should produce annual revenues of greater than Nuformix’s current market cap. Maybe sell at half the US price to one tenth of the target patient population. US could be worth $90m a year annual rev at say $200 a patient to 3 million patients at 15% royalty.

Interogated someone I know who went to the Investor Evening and they reported:

£ 8.4m revenue forecast for next year may be a bit conservative. Hardly any China or Nigeria revenue included.

Nigeria courses paid in advance so no bad debts. First sales early 2019.

China trial in one Tier 3 city - has a population of over 6 million - so gives an idea of the total size of the Chinese market.

China background - China mandates English as a subject and has done for over 20 years. The original idea was Chinese could all leave school reading, writing and speaking English for business and tourism purposes. Reality is reading and writing is pretty good but speaking not so good as Chinese teachers not so good on pronunciation themselves.
Solution - Wey uses English qualified teachers to teach online in China. That's why DM sees '50 times share price' as possible as there are 100 million Chinese school pupils. If the government sees Wey's trial working then many many students they may ask Wey to teach.

Lots of UK teachers available as so many leave the profession - have children, don't like school environment, etc - but like teaching.

Finally lots of InterHigh students already enrolled for this coming year so they have some visibility in the broker forecast.

7.5 m shares at 26.65p

Wow that's a big un. End of the overhang?

Maybe there's a Savannah strategy around the CNPC Niger interests and Sinopec's (CNPC) Stubb Creek 49% interest.

Maybe Savannah could do an oil swap - CNPC allows more Savannah oil to flow through its Niger pipeline to its refinery and Savannah allows more Sinopec share from Stubb Creek in Nigeria. Just a thought. Maybe a way of monetising larger quantities of Savannah's anticipated Niger oil production.

Could be there's more to the 7E deal than appears? If so, would this delay the 7E close?

31p if announced in August.

33p if announced in Sept. ( More investors back at work.)

Then price appreciation over following couple of months into 50p+ zone.

All from memory - Dragon Oil went from around 15 p per share in 2002 to 800 p in 2015 ( taken over).

Why?

It had hundreds of millions of 2P ( then later billion+ of resources) in 2002 but had financing concerns, country concerns ( Turkmenistan), access to pipelines concerns (land locked). I think when I first bought in the market cap gave 20 p a barrel.

Savannah has financing concerns - why the delay with the 7E deal ? - what happens if it falls through at the last hurdle ?
Country concerns - Niger - investors: 'we don't know much about Niger'

Access to pipelines - 'how do you sell your oil?'

We're buying down here because:

We think 7E will complete. If it doesn't it's not terminal to Savannah. Niger is the real 2P gem.

Niger seems oil producer friendly. The market will feel more comfortable as Niger production starts and a big oil farm in demonstrates big oil or big money is comfortable with Niger. Niger gets a nice slice of profit oil so big incentive to work well with Savannah.

Pipeline/access concerns reduce as access opens up e.g. recent MOU with Niger.

2P reserves ( and 3P) - not yet in Niger but near certain to be big within a year as exploration and testing success should prove up resources. 4 successes out of 4 wells so far. Future wells based on same data and geology. In a few years we may look back and see that magic 20 p a barrel for 2P at today's share price.

Good luck all. Today's price is a bargain we think. Who knows but could go lower if 7E is delayed further into Q4 on nervousness. I first bought Dragon Oil at 16 p and saw it go down to 13 p. For a few weeks I was completely wrong.

Closest I’ve seen to Dragon Oil back in 2003. 20p a barrel.

Liking the emphasis on Evgen possibly taking SAH through P3 on their own. Think they must like the SAH opportunity big time. Also P3 must be affordable if they think they can go alone. Also like the way earlier this year they said SFX01 was better for SAH than any other SFX analogue they've looked at.
Maybe some preliminary positive feedback from clinicians running the SAH trial is encouraging Evgen ?