Member Info for Breq

The MMs don’t have to report today’s trades over the market size until tomorrow.

So they show some sells, probably arranged with placees, often hoping others sell, and report the buys later.

I should be clear - there have been larger buys which are currently unreported. The MMs will be seeking stock from placees.

The MMs have yet to report larger buys.

But there will be sellers at this level if the buy volume is there.

These are sellers who have or are about to participate in a placing.

Sell the shares for a small profit and keep the 15p warrants.

Crism RNSs state this grant is for Part 1 and the fund raise for Part 2.

Trials are expensive.

Good financing strategy.

Now financed through to early market approval if trial data supports it.

Just looked back at last year’s release.

3.29pm according to LSE.

So could be this afternoon.

Really great info pickledpeck.

I know Zoetis are doing some really interesting projects on using DNA therapies for other non-canine animals.

Highly likely potential partners saw further data as supporting partnership discussions at a higher upfront payment and higher percentage royalty.

No brainer for Genflow to be methodical on data accumulation.

Thanks moneymetal.

Quite a project to see if they or another company could extract the rubidium at those prices!

Just taking Rubidium, today Fulcrum reported 106g/tonne.

So a tenth of a kilogram per tonne.

At $1000 a kg, that $100 worth of Rubidium a tonne. Current price $1,103 a kg.

Fulcrum in March 2025 reported a conceptual study with the plant processing 2,000 tonnes of waste a day.

That produces $200,000 a day of Rubidium (less recovery rates). Say at 50% is $100,000 a day.

So if they could sell their Rubidium at current prices, they'd make $36m a year just from this one metal.

That's got to be wrong?

Can anyone point out where the above calcs are wrong?

West Coast: 'Mr Webb, good to make contact. What size investment are we looking at here?'

AW: '$10m'

West Coast:'That sounds great. We like to deal in clips of $10m. What does that buy us? 5%? 10%?'

AW: '$10m is our current market cap'

West Coast:'What the chuck! ODD, Phase 2 registration starting!'

AW 'I know. We're on AIM.'

West Coast: 'I'll have our public-to-private team reach out to you. They could fly over this week.'

AW: 'We're pretty busy at the moment. Maybe later in the year.'

West Coast: 'Your call Mr Webb. Don't take any calls from our competitors. $10m for 10% valuation could work for us. Till then, bye.'

West Coast: Guys we got a value play over the pond. Crism. Maybe $100m take out. Crunch the numbers and give us the upside multiple to the nearest 5 times.'

Trying to understand how big the dog market is. Looks like 200m dogs in Europe and USA. Average lifespan 12 years, so 16m dogs of each year.

If 2% of dog owners gave Genflow's therapy twice a year to their dogs for what is usually the last 2 years of a typical dog's life, say aged 11 and 12, then at $400 a treatment session, of which half is the drug cost and half the vet's labour charge, at a 15% royalty rate on the drug, that's $ 38m of royalty income to Genflow a year. That's about 3 times Genflow's current market cap, each and every year. That assumes only 1 in 50 dog owners would pay to extend their dog's life, which is very conservative I think. Could be 1 in 10 or higher.

So although an upfront payment on sale, as mentioned by Eric, would be good to help pay for MASH etc, I hope Genflow keep a good royalty as it could be very lucrative. All the above dependent on positive April trial results obviously.

Any experts got a view on share price next month at commencement of the trial ?

I’m thinking 35p as about £20m market cap after 15p warrants exercised.

Just a guess as market opportunity £1.7bn just for this first brain tumour indication.

So could be multiples of that if initial supportive data eg safety comes in by summer.

Any targets for next month ?

Mcfcnige,

Sometimes it’s fixable, all depends on the specific circumstances.

As Ed says, they have almost certainly been testing the lower levels first and as we know it was the top 8m which flowed at 12,000 BODs.

Hopefully the historic flowing levels are the low hanging fruit. I’d test them and pull back the well to say 2,000 BODs to limit watering out. At 2,000 BODs the well will produce cash flow of $3m a month.

Just my thoughts.

All we know from the RNS is:

Things are taking a long time. Still testing TO-14. TO-13 testing not started yet.

TO-14 is probably a carbonate rock issue ie when they start flow testing it, the well gets blocked up. Previous RNSs stated no water, only oil shows and pressure back to previous levels.

My guess is Sonangol thought it best for reservoir management reasons to test levels different to historic producing depths. But they found the carbonate is being pulled into the well and blocking it. So they’ve been trying to fix that with limited success so are now thinking they have to test the historic producing levels which may have better rock characteristics. They were prolific producers before.

That’s the only way I can reconcile the very positive previous RNSs with this latest negative RNS.

Wondering if they might do a sidetrack. Also maybe FFD will be horizontals in the historic producing levels to improve reservoir management.

Hi mcfcnige,

If I understand your questions correctly - the integrated production is the barrels of oil per day from all Corcel’s fields as adjusted for Corcel’s percentage and the cumulative production is a running total of all barrels produced by Corcel from start of Tobias this summer.

You’ll see Corcel’s cumulative production tops out at about 300m barrels as that is the total estimated available recoverable oil in all its blocks.

Obviously left and right hand y-axis for each.

Ed,

I’m interpreting the vertical grey lines on page 11 to represent total Corcel barrels per day of production at any one time. Looking at these, end 2024 looks to be about 6,500. That must be from Tobias alone as Galinda probably won’t have been put on production by end of this year. The blue KON-12 Galinda cumulative production line doesn’t start until Jan 2025.

The darker grey cumulative production horizontal Tobias line starts in 2024.

The light grey daily BOD lines begin in the summer. That’s why I thought Corcel might be saying Tobias will average 17,500 gross BODs (as per page 14) in 2024 and end at 36,000, giving 6,500 BODs net to Corcel on 31 Dec 2024 as per page 11’s vertical light grey lines.

Ed,

I haven't checked Brite's financials. They look to be US incorporated. From their website they have an office in Houston and look to be a lead generator. They mention two Angola blocks ( not KON-11) they are looking to partner for.

As for reconciling pages 11 and 14 of the recent presentation, I can only think of two ways:

Page 11 shows Corcel's end of 2024 BODs at about 6,5000 net being 36,000 gross. Page 14 shows average BOD for H2 2024. Beginning at 0 and ending at 36,000.

Or, page 11 includes some buying in of other NOP interests, but I don't think they would show that.

mcfcnige,

Not sure at what price a deal could be done. Obviously, very dependent on upcoming flow rates. But the Atlas transaction, completed before any well testing, showed the kind of structure which can be attractive to a NOP.

Ed,

Yes, I can't really see 36,000 BOD at year end from Tobias, although that is what the 27 Feb presentation suggests.

As much as anything just getting all the kit and trucks and pipe there by end of year would be a big logistics issue. Maybe by Spring it's possible.

Re buying in other NOPs interests - it's a completely different game funding one's share of FFD to generating leads. So I'm sure any conversations Corcel initiates will be listened to with interest by their partners. This sort of thing is one of AK's strengths. Just in theory, buying Brite's share 20% leaving them with a free carry on 5%, using cash and shares would be a good deal for them. It's a proof of their business model - monetising lead generation - and would give them a share of Tobias's ongoing success, Galinda, and the elephant KON-16. We would be diluted but our Tobias cash flow would more than double so worth it in my opinion.

Mcfcnige,

Just taking what we know of, i.e. no extra acquiring of field interests like Brite's. I'd suggest 6,500 barrels by end of year would suggest a share price of 8p.

Being 6,500 times $45 times 365 days times a 1.5 multiple. Equals 5.8p.

Plus Galinda producing 3,000 BOD but say 'only' a 40% chance of success. Equals 1.4p on the same basis. Galinda could be much higher as Corcel mentions possible horizontal wells.

Plus the elephant KON-16. Put that in at say £20m value. How long is a piece of string for KON-16. It dwarfs Tobias and Galinda in size but is genuine exploration drilling. Equals 1p.

So 8p + a share by end of year. Maybe half that - 4p - within a month of good TO-13 and 14 news.

So, as ever, all depends on soon to be reported flow rates.

The rational of the above is if TO-14 and TO-13 come in good then the market is going to favour Corcel's chances with Galinda and KON-16.

Affc21,

Yes, good point about the 120m. I was just, hopefully, being conservative.

Presumably TO-14 is in the absolute sweetest spot in terms of pressure and permeability.

I'm just assuming TO-13 is in an 'average' spot.

It would be great if TO-13 has a higher flow rate than I've used.