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Oops I mean $30m of debt cleared in 75 days with average $400,000 of free cash flow a day.
Think debt should be zero by end June .
Producing around 14,000 + barrels now at $50 or more margin so $ 700,000 a day cash flow. Cap Ex for 2019 is around $ 100 m so $300,000 a day roughly. That gives $ 400,000 of free cash flow per day plus uplift for rest of year as more barrels come on line.
Debt was $ 30 m at beginning of year so around 130 days of cash flow.
So maybe debt paid off already.
We should know next week.
Wondering if the faster absorbed NXP001 might be orientated towards migraine. Interesting research over last few years suggesting Emend molecule has action against migraine.
Just guessing latest £500,000 payment is based on speed of absorption. Could be amazing if migraine one of the targets. Wiki tells me 38m migraine sufferers in US alone. Speed of action obviously crucial.
All just guesses. Good luck to all.
Maybe the board are approving the accounts during the day.
Maybe it's a bit delayed as the board are saying -
What! We've got that much cash!
I've got to talk to my tax adviser, that's one hell of a dividend!
Here's hoping.
Don't think you've offended anyone - at least not here.
Good things about Tekcapital is they've got several shots at goal. They also search through tens of thousands of patents to find the most promising using industry experts. So a high chance some of their portfolio will come good. All for a crazy low market cap of £ 6.5m. Just one winner makes this a 10+ bagger.
Don't think the management teams at their portfolio companies would have joined if they didn't like the IP and market opportunity. Too much chance of reputation loss if the IP was worthless and the market non-existent.
LEXION,
Good point. Last year was £ 1.50 from memory. Could be up to £ 3 as post Marathon, RRE will have over twice the production and cash flow.
I'm kind of assuming they'll pay it later in the year just to let cash build for a few months but no reason why they shouldn't pay it earlier unless they are closing in on another deal.
Your right, though I would point out that's an accounting thing largely - an increase in net asset value. But the consulting side seems to be growing so hopefully that will generate cash in the future.
I despair of the other board's TEK musings. There's a poster there pontificating about Guident - a cash drain he thinks with no reasoning given. As a general rule of thumb software companies are often high margin and capital light. He can't even spell the company's name.
poortrader, yes TEK is one of the few shares on AIM that doesn't have to do anything highly unlikely, like say drilling for oil and finding a massive strike, to reasonably 10 bag on what we know already.
Salarius could be worth £55m on its own (£1 a share) if it signs up a few big snack companies.
Belluscura should significantly increase in value on FDA approval.
Guident may have a core IP position hence the very credible auto execs joining it.
Lucyd is a wild card but could be in the right place at the right time. People love cutting the number of gadgets they need - headphones plus glasses just to glasses.
I see on the other board one poster in particular is trying to talk down Guident's potential. Comments like suggesting revenues are years away. He neither understands the automotive industry nor software patents.
Car companies have to plan 5 to 10 years in advance of any new models reaching the market. Their lead times for components, new factories, robots etc are that long. So although autonomous cars probably are that far away, the car companies have to line up their components - both hardware and software - many years in advance. I see Guident suggest selling commences this summer. That would tie in with likely fully autonomous car sales in 2025 to 2030.
A car company would not risk spending billions on hardware development without tying in ( licensing) the necessary software.
Looking forward to tomorrow's annual report - must be released within 4 months of end of year - hope it gives some guidance on Marathon progress/timing.
Like the way they refer to it as a commercial order. Also like the way they can't name the customer - standard practice for large corporations. Maybe their CEO with big snack career experience can open those kind of doors. Here's hoping.
Crazy low current market cap ( £ 6m) if they can.
Lexion,
You're right. So maybe over 20,000 by year end. Hopefully a good year for shareholders as the market derisks improvements in Montara.
What I find interesting is if PEs for companies like Jadestone and RockRose expand from the current crazy 1 type level they are on now to say 5 to 10. That would be on the basis they prove the concept of buying older fields and also by generating cash they'll be a first port of call for any majors looking to divest. Also they'll have the legal expertise in place to make any divestment/acquisition relatively uncomplicated.
the_s,
It's from today's RNS.
Montara doing over 12,000 bod's now.
Stag at 2,500 plus.
49H Stag infill, currently expected to do over 1,000.
Q4 Montara infill expected at 3,000.
So that's how we get to 18,000 bod by year end.
Now debt free.
At current oil prices 18,000 bod by end of year = more than $ 300 m cash profit per year + $75m cash in bank.
All for current market cap of £225 m. EV will equal much less than 1 times cash flow after infill drilling costs going into 2020.
Now if RockRose and Jadestone merged then we'd have one serious player. Over 55,000 boed within a couple of years just on the current assets.
Around $550,000,000 cash profit a year after decommissioning costs. Plus by then over a half billion dollars in the bank.
All for a current combined market cap of £ 330 m. Think of the $ bn deals they could do then.
poortrader,
You might be right about Guident but looking at the patent it could be that the car companies have to do business with Guident. It's patent seems quite central to autonomous vehicles. Maybe that's why these credible auto execs have joined the Guident board.
Could simply be a legal thing. Tek spotted the patent and licensed it knowing car companies had no choice but to do business.
Wow can you do that Randomchancer ?
Have a post removed just because it doesn't support your own uber positive claims ?
Maybe it gets reposted if LSE see it isn't offensive or whatever ?
It is weird that whenever someone posts something of quality it is quickly submerged by the usual tripe.
Yes - the non presence of Ebers is interesting. Hope that is just because it is in stealth mode.
Sensically,
You wrote a very good post which has just disappeared. How does that work ? You removed it ? Some moderator removed it ?
Then followed by all the usual posting stuff.
Interesting.
Anyway if you are reading this then thanks for your post.
Completely agree.
No certainty NXP001 will pass bio equivalence trials. Cambridge Independent had an article a few days ago quoting Dan stating dissolution some 10 times greater than the existing drug. How will that effect bio equivalence ? Maybe, just maybe, NXP001 will overshoot. I'm completely guessing the reason why Nuformix is 6 months behind schedule relative to its IPO timeline on this trial is that they've been working on an exipient to slow things down to avoid overshooting.That's complete speculation on my behalf.
The good news is there are now 3 projects in active development and cash coming in from at least 1 of these over the next few months.
Is NFX good value if NXP001 fails bio equivalence. Yes INMHO because it will almost certainly fail by overshooting which will enable other uses as Dan has mentioned. And the overshoot can probably be reduced with further work.
But as you say NXP001 is not a certainty.
Stuff that makes me wary - and this from a holder of a 7 figure number of shares:
No broker for over a year - hence my trial theory.
No pdf presentation on website since Oct 2017.
Insufficiently worded latest RNS - vague on amount and timing.
Lots of verbal chat on Vox and Proactive but no attendance at share evenings where investors could ask specific questions.
Who are Ebers Tech ? Maybe just been set up, but no mention of them elsewhere on the internet. Maybe that's typical in that space ? Maybe they were set up on the back on what NFX could add ? All just speculation on my part.
But that said if NFX's technology is anything like is claimed - and I think it is hence being a shareholder - this company, assuming sufficient cash coming in this year to pay the bills, should be very valuable in time and we will see the 9 or 10 figure valuations being suggested.
Sensically,
You wrote a very good post which has just disappeared. How does that work ? You removed it ? Some moderator removed it ?
Then followed by all the usual posting stuff.
Interesting.
Anyway if you are reading this then thanks for your post.
Completely agree.
No certainty NXP001 will pass bio equivalence trials. Cambridge Independent had an article a few days ago quoting Dan stating dissolution some 10 times greater than the existing drug. How will that effect bio equivalence ? Maybe, just maybe, NXP001 will overshoot. I'm completely guessing the reason why Nuformix is 6 months behind schedule relative to its IPO timeline on this trial is that they've been working on an exipient to slow things down to avoid overshooting.That's complete speculation on my behalf.
The good news is there are now 3 projects in active development and cash coming in from at least 1 of these over the next few months.
Is NFX good value if NXP001 fails bio equivalence. Yes INMHO because it will almost certainly fail by overshooting which will enable other uses as Dan has mentioned. And the overshoot can probably be reduced with further work.
But as you say NXP001 is not a certainty.
Stuff that makes me wary - and this from a holder of a 7 figure number of shares:
No broker for over a year - hence my trial theory.
No pdf presentation on website since Oct 2017.
Insufficiently worded latest RNS - vague on amount and timing.
Lots of verbal chat on Vox and Proactive but no attendance at share evenings where investors could ask specific questions.
Who are Ebers Tech ? Maybe just been set up, but no mention of them elsewhere on the internet. Maybe that's typical in that space ? Maybe they were set up on the back on what NFX could add ? All just speculation on my part.
But that said if NFX's technology is anything like is claimed - and I think it is hence being a shareholder - this company, assuming sufficient cash coming in this year to pay the bills, should be very valuable in time and we will see the 9 or 10 figure valuations being suggested.