Member Info for BradSmith

My whole position is summed up in my earlier post.
As is Tony's afaik , there isn't too many ways of repeating the message - but too many expect him to do just that. No trades on ASX again keeping the 4c close intact. During trading I am losing an £2k or more but at the close that cash reappears. I don't think brokers should revalue your portfolio if there are no trades - it is conducive to inexperienced people selling for no good reason .... hence my constant whinging to stop them doing it. Add negative posters encouraging people to sell their golden tickets, and you get the low sp!

Kalahari's approach is very different to ours.
I never found it again, but I am 100% certain that I read that they insisted upon a large PPA before they'd agree to enter the frame. Hence 97Mw though it was never clear how much they required.
It seems likely a 50Mw - 50Mw would have satisfied them , but TG never wanted to commit us to 1917/18/19 prices and was perfectly happy with 2M to 10Mw because he knows that finding a market for future power is the least o his worries .... and the 1920+ prices will outstrip the early one as was proven by MM's post earlier!
If Kalahari had a PPA before that for their 97Mw it might have cost them dear?

If we get commercial rates it makes their chances of repeating the feat fairly good subject to them having the same expertise. If the science works for us it will likely work for them - and Botswana will be in good shape. I hope they see it this way.

If they do , finding the $10m is worth risking but who would risk it whilst there is any doubt that commercial rates are achievable. My stance has always been they are virtually certain which is why I am on my way to the next million shares for the benefit of the nearest dog's home or whereever my will is directed. It is not blind faith in TG - it is wide-eyed faith in the science and economics behind CBM is Botswana that I share with him.

For newcomers - he left Australia because the red tape around CBM production is horrendous there for a price of $10-$12 AUD. In Botswana they are paying $30 AUD equivalent currently and the red tape is xpected to be less.

All we need is for the dewatering process to conclude at Lesedi , the gas to follow the established pattern of building to a peak from there , and this company will be rolling!

Drying up wells for the first time in history can take years - but the more water there is the more gas is expected to flow. We aren't a year yet into dewatering it can takes years! You'd think in the desert it would be shorter than most places - the main reason for disappointment and a share price below 2p! TG has said he is trying to maintain shareholder value , as he did at two CBM ventures in Australia. I believe that too! I think this is a no brainer.

Hi Chuk, posted before I read your post.
Do we know they are talking to Kalahari?

The recent news is more to do with a third party - the USA.

Tlou are rightly concentrating upon Botswana who sound as if they are fully behind us.
But being behind us does not mean they can give us something for nothing.
We need to prove that up to $30M will be going to a company which will pay off. And promising early gas flows , giving the sentiment long term flows will be commercial, is essential to do that surely? The science behind it 100% positive, but is not proven in Botswana.

The sickening thing is we will prove the viability for the benefit of Kalahari!

Sirius set everything up for Anglo - equally sickening that they got a 15p to 50p share for a mere 5.5p but Kalahari is not going to takes over there is room for both them and us.
Imho by the time they reach 93Mw we'll have been operational for a long while and won't be far behind if we are behind at all. All subject to that vaccine allowing anything to progress ( or Botswana shutting it out - unlikely I'd guess).


The best hospit

Your second post mentions CBM but the focus is on RENEWABLE energy i.e. Solar and Wind

Tendering for 100Mw of solar , ignoring wind , but quoting 130Mw minimum within 2 years is very interesting.

I'd like to think the discrepancy is all down to TLOU i.e. 10Mw of CBM, and 20Mw of Solar power ..... and 2 years might be very feasible if they discover a vaccine for Coronavirus - probably THE research project of the century .....

MM, Winston once said "we are at war with Germany" , events change in time.
Don't you think TG responded when both sides thought #4 and #3 gas was going into the grid, and Botswana wanted to expedite that?

It isn't in the short term - both sides know that - so why would Botswana be treating temporary PPA (that we are not in a position to agree) with urgency as if it is going to happen any day soon?

"we have agreed to get into discussions for a temporary Power Purchase Agreement that would enable your organization to provide power on a pilot/proof of concept approach while negotiations for the full PPA are ongoing. "

MM, your link is over a month old, and not much water has passed under the bridge since, it seems - not enough to produce commercial gas for sure.

I fail to see how a PPA , temporary or otherwise, is possible if we are not going to supply the grid with electricity.

And we are going to use any electricity we produce as the means to continue dewatering using that power - maybe subject to permission?

Powering pumps etc may well provide "proof of concept" - like Selemo has - but our approach "doth butter no parsnips" as Joe Lycett might observe.

Don't take my view as being doom and gloom - I still believe in TG (and bought more today) - but I think you should stop repeating news that is dubious as if it is gospel.

My belief is TG has put us on hold until stage 2 , generating a supply to the grid , building distribution network, and extending the number of wells is possible.
Being self sufficient until then is what he is proposing?

And when we get there - will coronavirus allow us to resume full speed?
My hope is for the water to cease enough that we don't need the power to dewater from #3 and #4 - the corresponding power rise is the proof Botswana have eagerly anticipated - funding results and we are able to resume stage 2 and beyond. This could happen anytime in the future - but we look to be prepared for it imho.

Don't know how long it will survive but it is still there currently.
If you like a joke , we had a top quality , imho , poster there.

While we wait for some truly positive news you can see if you disagree.# here
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/tuckupp/

IG have increased their minimum trade from £60 to £90 which is not helpful.
A trade that was struck on 26th Feb and settled on 2nd March shows as both a February and a March deal on different histories. To play safe I wanted to do a small trade to guarantee my £3 frequent trader status for April (a 3rd trade in March).

The contra argument is that we would hopefully be guaranteeing a supply to continue dewatering whatever goes on with the grid. That might be extremely important before long.

I am reticent to feed the vultures but feel I should make a negative point that occurred to me.
My hope is that the electricity being considered to power the dewatering process is a temporary measure (while dewatering is producing high volumes) and will be used to supply the grid at the appropriate time. And the negative? Does this signal that the temporary PPA to buy whatever is possible from #4 and #3 been abandoned or denied ?

Whizzer, do you really think the yanks are contemplating 6Bn Pula finance for Kalahari if your lack of faith in TLOU has a firm base?
Both companies need a PPA , and to get a PPA they need gas flows imho , though not all of us agree with that.
If the yanks are willing to find £459M for Kalahari, you'd think they be prepared to take the sort of money we need out of their back pockets?
We presumably haven't approached them , probably because we are happy that Botswana are indeed close to financing us once the pesky water is low enough.
TLOU have a choice
1. Keep the faith until the water drops enough for the gas to flow and keep the value of this project at 100%.
2. Raise cash to expedite progress at the most difficult time possibly in my lifetime, and risk bankruptcy if it fails within the shortened timescale.

We know the gas is present and is unpredictable on the time needed to get it flowing for the first time ever. Our experience is not deterring the yanks voicing their support for Kalahari .... and indirectly TLOU.

Car is being MOT'd so I took Poppy with me and the scooter and popped into the park on the way home.
I told a fellow dog walker that the garage was not sure if he should be open.
He is ex-military and said garages and filling stations are classed as essential services.
But even so , it is their choice whether they open!

The interesting thing was that customers who are caught out by essential services closing, can contact DVLA and get exemption for tax, mot etc so they can continue to use their vehicle.
He also warned about dog poo bins - use a spare bag to open the lid and bin the spare bag was his advice - I think he had experience of infectious diseases from foreign countries.

I was alarmed at the garage - I walked up to the owner to hand him the car key and he kept the 6 ft space. So easy to forget? I said I'd leave them in the ignition!

I hope he wipes them before turning them.

The military guy also said wipe down th keys, steering heel, gear change, door handle , seat belt etc when I get the car back.

Dog walking should be compulsory - you can learn so much!

Have a new milestone on the way - bought 55300 @ 1.6799 for effectively £230 with my HL profits.

Time for an MOT!

I have an MOT booked for today and called the garage to see if they are working.

The owner does not know if he is classed as an essential service or not .... so we have agreed I'll pop it up to him because I cannot use it for social or pleasure anyway I guess?

Luckily, I use the one half a mile from my house. He is going to try and get it done!

Was offered 1.9p surely one of you will take less than that? Better take the car up the road while you ponder! 1.68p is the price I have in mind - much better than 1p Donk!

54782 please rabid!
Try reading between the lines!

When is Coronavirus going to end worldwide?
There is your dilemma and everyone else's!

Until then, TG has a plan to keep the dewatering going without the need to to raise huge amounts of cash.

We hear Botswana is virus free - so I don't know if they'll welcome outsiders in to start phase 2 if we get commercial flows and need to start the next phase. The world is on hold - TLOU are in a better position than most imho! Because the CEO is in the real world! I find him inspirational after the heady days of Chris Fraser at SXX.

Chuk, whatever problems TLOU have, consider that Sekaname's difficults are 40 times greater.
90+ Mw versus 2MW will take many more personnel which could be the biggest problem, iff it is believable the yanks are going to magic £450M out of the hat for them. It is conditional on those famous few letters PPA - who knows what timescale that will lead to?

If the finance is credible, it is hardly surprising that Colm was so confident that Botswana were prepared to fund us , whether we ask for $10M or $30M USD.

In the grand scheme of things it looks like chicken feed imho.

The govt will admire our board for reducing expenditure by sacrificing a good proportion of their salary leaving the expense of dewatering as the ongoing other in capex! And they appear to be considering making that expenditure self sufficient at minimal cost. Using an existing asset, a generator, to produce the power to continue dewartering :O) , Lesedi.

It seems my opinion that #4 is very superior to #3 is true, but I hope they will 'dewarter' both rather than #4 alone tbh. Why? Because I believe the scientists who report the whole area is effectively losing water which will help future progress, additional wells!

Nearly time to make a trivial purchase according to the fool. No trade is trivial imho - if you have a fiver to your name or multi-millions the number involved will vary of course!

I thought about gambling on ASX last night - GBP is fairly strong against AUD - so I comtemplated joining the spivs by offering to buy at a low price which may have dragged the price down from 4c. No trades last night so I'm glad I didn't.

I need 54782 , I hope one of the panickers who have kept the price so low is going to oblige me.

"The unpaid amounts will not be accrued nor payable by the Company at a later date."
Is that a vote of confidence in TLOU? I'd say so, both in terms of the time schedule and anticipated future prosperity. It is further evidence that the directors do listen to the shareholders, some of whom have suggested this action, and are trying to look after us all.

Chukkers 6Bn pula is £459M .

Good find though .... the telling sentence might be this one ...
"The project is expected to cost P6 billion and is dependent on Kalahari Energy and the government finalising a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for supply."

If we are close perhaps they will be too - but if this is new, as it seems to be, they are where we were several years ago. And they have a lot further to go than we do to satisfy our PPA.

Being in the same chatroom is not against government advice chaps :O)

Looks greedy if I understood you.
I sold at over £15 on one account , moved the cash to my preferred broker, and bought one more share than I sold for £700 less. Got them under £12 which was good enough for me.

Bit cheesed because I thought I'd bought at less and it must have failed.
Price was over £12 again by the time I realised. Put in a buy over £12 and saw the was a checking error .... explaining the previous failure in an obscure way.

Requoted and expected £11.98 to fail too - sod's law it went straight through!

Don't rely on LSE for a price guide .... they are completely wrong. I think they were showing £13+ when I went to ADVFN trades and saw £15+ ..... so I jumped at it.
LSE never caught up .... so be warned!

e.g. Current price £11.62 on ADVFN and £12.84 on here with nothing showing in the trades in the last 3.5 hours .... it is almost criminal.

Despite spivs trying to get farcically low steals.
Thank X for Aussies!

Here the quote is looking ok uo a tad more - daylight between the price and 2p

buy
TOU.AX
Tlou Energy Limited (LSE)
Price 2.1048
Order type Fixed price quote
Quantity 54000
Investment
Commission
£3.00
Consideration
£1,136.59
Total cost £1,139.59
.........

So my milestone 54000 shares have gone up from £910 to £1139 while I wait for the bank transfer from Friday.
Happily HL are sliding back so I might defer the tlou milestone for the moment.
I can buy back the shares I sold for ~£400 less currently - Tlou or HL that is the question. I was planning on saving all £910 when I started. Never mind.