Member Info for BradSmith

I was once berated for using the word turbine instead of generator,which I'd used generator several times in that post.
TG is berated for taking too long, whilst KE/Sekaname is the golden company, sneaking up on the rails to take Red Rum by surprise at the finishing post, according to my berator!
This article from 2012 does indeed show how good KE is at delivering.

At first sight it makes you wonder how TLOU can make the boasts that they have. KE beat them to it seems.
But it is not all it seems!
After reading this , I am very surprised that KE were accepted after the RFP.
I believed at the time that Botswana were only interested in KE so that TLOU could not be complacent as the only runner in the race. Hobson's choice!
(My thinking was KE were biting off more than they could chew, and I didn't know 97Mw was only a third of their previous mouthful. )

Here is the article ...
https://www.esi-africa.com/top-stories/botswana-s-first-ipp/

I love this paragraph in particular ....
"The Orapa 90 MW power plant was commissioned in August 2011. “The power plant will be used for peak load and will run with diesel in a first stage,” Paton says. “The power plant can alternatively run with gas (sourced from coal bed methane) thanks to the technology used (dual-fuel GE turbines), which should provide substantial operating savings.”"

It occurs to me Tony overtook them at the water jump (half way round) and has stretched the lead every since.
Second time round Sekaname will not return the feat - they only jump the water jump once!

And if TG estimates were over-zealous, don't miss this sentence!

"Drilling of the first ever horizontal CBM wells in Africa has commenced for the Mmashoro 180 MW power station, and the first set of wells will enter production in the 4thquarter of 2012."

Ha ha! Whizzer you are allied with a bigot!

Anyone offering odds on Tony replying to the pleader?
He is filtered by so many on both boards and if anyone has been abused by the wally it is TG!

I can see Whizzer agrees with Donk's view, and BTS is is looking for hope in getting his money back.

But most people are keeping their heads down otherwise.

Perhaps Tony could confirm that PPA talks are suspended because the gas flows are not targetting the grid in the short to middle term, depending on how they progress (or not).

If TG posts a statement overnight it won't be good!
An April fool to an annual fool is the last thing we need to wory us.

Who'd have predicted this?
After the faeces of how I don't listen to his assertion that a PPA is independent of gas flows (and hence electricity generation?) I post I'm done with him, and he posts this - admitting he may be wrong, which he certainly is!
Is this the nicest he has every been Tony? He has learned a new word i.e. please.

I have filtered him on Cherrylady too - so I leave him to talk to himself from now on. I was the last one tick one of his posts - - that was a red letter day.

"donkey40 - 30 Mar 2020 - 15:11:05 - 8238 of 8239 CEO's third $Billion+ gas company in the making. - TLOU
Major result - Nugacity aka Cherrylady posted on LSE (yet again) he is done with Advfn posting. With all his endless personal ramblings, brilliant. Stick to it mate - or stick to embarrassing yourself there.

Now what’s ahead? Quarterly update at end of April for Qtr 1.

Tlou management - please clear up this uncertainty about the relationship of flow rates v commencement of PPA negotiations. I know they are not needed for Govt or Ministry to commence PPA negotiations (as is 100% the same for all IPPs everywhere) but the legions of retail shareholders seem to think otherwise.

Do the right thing and clear this up for them once and for all!!"

From that last link...

"A single-point test is conducted by flowing the well at a single rate until the BHFP is stabilized. This type of test was developed to overcome the limitation of long testing times required to reach stabilization at each rate in the flow-after-flow test."

I think Colm described this perfectly for us before Xmas in terms we could understand.
This approach looks to be the safest and least labour intensive way - perfect for the oncoming period of self sufficient dewatering that is planned for the #4 and #3 gas flows being flared wastefully.

ASX closed now - no trades at all - "to overcome the limitation of long testing times required to reach stabilization at each rate in the flow-after-flow test." - no panic on ASX clearly!

Woke early and found this article.
If you wonder why the first dewatering is not like a cup of Necsafe Instant , you will if you read the options for dewatering.
When TLOU talked about getting the the revs on the water pump below 100 rpm for best gas flows, it was a slight understatement , "The four most common types of gas-well deliverability tests are discussed in separate articles: flow-after-flow, single-point, isochronal, and modified isochronal tests. ", is just a start - the mathematics behind them all looks horrendous! No wonder TG spared us the details.

Found this article by searching on the favourite ADVFN pastime (bottomhole flowing pressures (BHFPs)), it doesn't even mention the pros and cons of how many wells should be used in a new reservoir!
I'd like to see Botswana govt try to to put that lot into its tendering requirement back at the RFP stage!
Rpm's is relatively easy to understand,(for most of us), well done Tony!

https://petrowiki.org/Deliverability_testing_of_gas_wells

Tried to find the drop off period at the end of dewatering and came up with (though it doesn't provide timings, it supports everything TLOU has said and are doing) ....
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236116309309

Olda , don't you think that achieving gas flows will turn TLOU's fortunes on their head?
If the minister isn't in self isolation , the vibes are that he will get the PPA going with whatever those flows will generate.
That will trigger a BPC loan because CBM power will be proven with hopes of much more to come.

They'll want TLOU to get the generators , distribution and connection the the grid sorted asap and the whole world (that is interested at all) will be aware the loans are needed immediately to progress CBM power , with us kicking it into action.

Mr Moagi is hopefully very safe from infection at the moment,and it is just about possible that this could happen before the virus reaches Botswana. They will consider power to be an essential service if they adopt our approach to the virus.

I wonder how swiftly excess water can dry up? Hours, days , weeks or months?
A small drop underground could give rise to a Tsunami at the stock exchanges.
I think I'll be having the odd top up at the silly prices on offer if only to keep my £3 frequent trader price.

I was tempted to move some cash into CBA at $55 (down from the $90's) - should have cos they are up to $67 and rising!

Was getting short of dog food and beers so popped down to ASDA today and queued up the hill outside to get in.
Was staggered to see diesel as low as £1.08p - talk about rolling back the years - though my memory of 99p was for a gallon not a litre! Anyone rememember them halving the price at the pump when the price exceeded the 99.9p maximum?
And at the till they'd double the price at the pump to achieve a true price of over a £1 a gallon? And some garages painted £1 on the pump and added £1 per gallon (or was it litres) to the price shown at the pump? VAT calculations must have been tricky!

If they drew up a PPA today here is the likely outcome.
Initial PPA
=========
0Mw at , say $18p to $30 per unit , Total = SFA
Starting date of supply = Battle of Hastings thru to next Xmas .... immaterial for 0 Mw
Duration of supply - unknown but good news, TLOU can supply SFA forever!
Botswana compensation for cost of distribution = tba once complete - 'current' ly zero - pick your own price per unit.
Dates of additional supplies = unknown .... subject to commercial gas flows being achieved and other delays (coronavirus)

Revised PPA addendum
==========
x Mw where x is unknown but depends upon the certified gas flow rate
Start date .... unknown but is subject to finding generators, distribution gear and healthy labourers
etc etc etc

Appointment of assessors
======================

Deadline for their appointment ... unknown - the bog cleaner has reviewed the above on their behalf - no action required

Conclusion.
Botswana CBM power is not dependent on gas flows in order to produce a PPA, a poster named Donk will draw up the PPA because he is the only person who can. There is a temporary delay of some years however. He picked up a table mat with "Please turn over" written on both sides - and he is still reading it, between repeating his latest novel to date.
"If demonstration of commercial gas flows was a Govt requirement of the RFP, then Tony would have said this very clearly and very explicitly long before now."

Why TG chose Donk as his biographer I don't know!
Perhaps Donk wrote this song - it must be about ST Tony :O)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OaWuVk3Mg4

Now what could have been in the REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL that I haven't considered .... given it is has been alive and well for quite some time , 97Mw to Sekaname, agreed, 3Mw to TLOU agreed, job done! UCMIU!

I am done with ADVFN ... but at least one of their posters gave me a pointer to DCT motorcycles. If only global warming lived up to its name, I'd be able to ride it! Almost April and I am frozen most of the time!

Has this been posted before? It has some interesting quotes from KE and Tlou.
"In its bid, KEB proposed that government provide a credit-enhancement mechanism to make the project bankable."
That is the closest demand to my memory of KEB demanding a sizeable order in the early days.

"Gilby meanwhile said Tlou’s proposal had received the highest pass mark at the compliance and technical stage, while it had also been the most competitive for cost of energy."
That will appeal if Botswana new minister is as cost concious as the previous one "as long as it is affordable" was his quote.

https://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=81258&dir=2019/june/07

It is unbelievable in 2020 that there is so much ignorance on what a proposal and an agreement are!

RFP - request for proposal - resulted in Sekaname proposing they supply up to 100Mw of the 100Mw requirement, whilst Tlou proposed 2Mw up to 10Mw!
The RFP process was done and dusted ages ago - both were acceptable (2nd time round) with 97Mw and 3Mw the compromise offered. They were both suspoended first time because proposals were only wanted from companies who already had a history of supplying CBM power to Botswana - an impossibility even now!

The next stage was a PPA - power purchase agreement - individual agreements with each company presumably getting into the nitty gritty of price, timings, durations etc .

Botswana, represented by Minister Eric Molale , announced full support for both companies subject to them proving CBM is viable in Botswana (proof of adequate supplies was stated) because his ministry had been told they were not!!!!

The generators are known to work if provided with adequate gas , and distribution lines are pretty straightforward, so his concern could only be inadequate gas flows!

TG's opponents blame him for not getting the agreement before proving our flows.
And the Govt for not issuing a PPA before getting the proof they desire!

This is so obvious but some are claiming gas flows were not mentioned as a prequisite for the RFP!
Talk about stupid!

I wonder if they'd be interested in financing something which is beyond the feasibility stage?
Production well needing further wells to speed up dewatering might be attractive.
The Zambian grant was for 10Mw+ so perhaps 10Mw- isn't too small fry?

June 2017
Today, the U.S. Government through the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) signed a grant with Kalahari GeoEnergy Limited, a Zambian geothermal development company,
for a feasibility study supporting a 10-20 megawatt geothermal power project. California-based
*********************
Geologica Geothermal Group was selected by Kalahari GeoEnergy to carry out the study which will provide technical and environmental analyses needed to advance the project.

Mar 17, 2020
Strategic engagement will create opportunities for U.S. companies

(Gaborone, Botswana) – Today, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency awarded a grant to Kalahari Energy Botswana
for a feasibility study of a power plant that will generate up to 100 megawatts of electricity using
*********************
indigenous coalbed methane.

=================
https://africanminingmarket.com/kalahari-energy-botswana-awarded-preferred-bidder-status-for-the-construction-of-a-97mw-coal-bed-methane-cbm-fuelled-ipp-owned-power-station/3998/

In 2017 Kalahari Energy, as the project owner, appointed Prana Energy (www.pranaenergy.co.za) as Project Developer to facilitate its response to the closed tender RFP and delivery of the subsequent project award through to financial close. Prana Energy leads an experienced international project development team with a proven track record of delivering successful natural gas and CBM projects, comprising (amongst others):

Owners Team Consultation (www.ownerteamconsult.com) – conceptual design engineering and project management;
Advanced Resources International Inc (www.ari-res.com) – reservoir modelling and well-field design;
Eaglestone Capital (www.eaglestone.eu) – financial modelling, capital structuring and fund-raising; and
Ecosurv (www.ecosurv.com) – leading the EISA process on behalf of Kalahari Energy.

==============

Prana seem more into Solar and Wind than CBM and the list above does not include hands on experience in CBM like Arrow and Sunshine .... Prana is less secret than Sekaname so maybe there is more on CBM than I have found so far.

Botswana look to be in good shape with their preferred bidders. Solar and wind is in vogue and Prana fits that bill, and TLOU have CBM experience.

Has anybody found a value for the feasibility study grants? Chukkers?
Grant sounds like a gift rather than a loan? It was for students years ago , and student loans are repayable by a select few?

Getting a PPA before commercial flows is akin to having chemo before you catch cancer imho!
Why does nobody that .... note to self ... you must stop posting! you must stop posting!

RRE's chart looks like Ayers "rock" to me! Oil looks a good area to invest in with non-electric vehicles due to be phased out. Over production already, bodes well? CBM v Oil long term is going to the next Hunger games film no doubt.

note to self ... you must stop posting! you must stop posting!

DTE , why 12 months? It is all about survival, the period is a total unknown.
Once there is a vaccine it is going to take a long time to bring it online across the globe.

I wonder if I was given the choice of definitely catching it and living or dying in within a fortnight , i.e. all over one way or the other, as opposed to living the rest of my days trying to avoid the unavoidable ....... would I take it? Dividing up the world into millions of small communities and doing it seems foolproof. The survivors would either not have it or have some immunity in just a few days!

I sold my Asiamet holding DTE so you are probably right knowing my luck :O)
I am content that TG is my oncologist, he hasn't put a foot wrong iimho.
Olda and Chris will hope you are right. And Olda called Sirius right! I wish I had sold when he voiced his opinion on them to me. TG is no Chris Fraser I hope.

He hates diluting shares for a start , CF not only loved doing it but gave them away!

Lordy, if chemotherapy takes a year it takes a year! Would you criticise your oncologist after 6 months?

Dewatering takes up to several years on a new site. In a healthy world taking extra time to dewater would be good (more gas) ... but when money is running short, not so!

Tlou are redirecting their planned electricity for the grid (and a planned PPA) , towards a self sufficient dewatering process. Why can't you see it is inspired? If the gas come soon we have lost very little , it will be redirected back to original plan, and if it takes ages we are still alive and kicking.

Mother in law said why is common sense so rare? She was inspired too!

Whizzer I wish you luck in finding a better prospect than TLOU in today's markets.
There are a few sectors which are possibly safe but which company within those sectors is the $64M question. Guessing right which pharma develops a vaccine against coronavirus is a banker.

I have filtered Don Quixote who is the stimulus for much of my posting , I am going to take a back seat , because I have said more than my piece here.

Afaik , TG has a plan that means TLOU can continue dewatering at minimal cost for the indefinite future.
Once it completes there will be a metamorphosis in Botswana - gas will (hopefully) become commercial and Botswana will be able to honour it's promises - subject to the virus is under control.

Funds of $10M is enough at current estimates to prove CBM is viable. $10M or even $30m is peanuts compared to e.g. UK company debt for their 80% of salary hand-outs (if they survive at all). In the circumstances I reckon our board have done blooming well.

Long may Botswana remain virus free. The choice of Botswana may prove to be genius!

1:38 was the last trade today.

Trades
Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
13:38:58 26-Mar-2020 1.41 GBX 12,158 171.43 Off-book AIMX
12:07:52 26-Mar-2020 1.55 GBX 83,455 1,293.55 Off-book AIMX
10:49:31 26-Mar-2020 1.54 GBX 63,951 988.04 Off-book AIMX
10:06:32 26-Mar-2020 1.51 GBX 13,236 200.00 Off-book AIMX
09:03:32 26-Mar-2020 1.40 GBX 10,957 153.40 Off-book AIMX

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLOU.L/
is what I saw .... and the closing price was 1.5p then .... now it it is 1.41p ... BUT BOTH SHOWED AT 1:38PM???? Weird.

Oops ... the original link stopped with an invitation to comment.
The blurb was not there :O(

Not sure what yahoo are saying tbh ....

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-were-bit-worried-035615517.html

In case someone other than Don Quixote did not understand where I was coming from earlier....

my point was if you have an asset worth , say, £15000 and you see advertisements everywhere for the same item in the same condition in the wanted columns for £10000 - it is bound to make you wonder if your valuation is over the top!
And if then you see someone is offering £12000 you might be tempted to grab it while it is there.

If you then pick up a respected journal and see one for £16000 , your confidence is restored, or you are annoyed if you did sell below £15000. If unqualified friends tell you are over valuing the item you get the scenario for TLOU being 1p+ instead of 10p+! The sells reinforce the mistake because they are genuine prices.

Fatuous offers for our shares determine the spread , the spread in trading hours determine the current mid-price sp.

The respected journal is the closing price, which is based on actual trades! i.e. real money!

I rest my case!