Member Info for BradSmith

Got a dividend today, and received credits on both my X-O ISA and NOMINEE accounts but IG don't credit them until they receive the cash (rather than notification I suppose).

You are right about Donk , JTD, he is always right.
Like I am always right if I say a football match will be a home win, draw , or away win and bet on all 3 eventualities.

Betting against AIM shares is going to work most of the time, most fail, - but he isn't betting against us or he'd have gone away years ago , instead of posting on 3 TLOU chatrooms.
I hope he is profiteering from his apostles who are giving their share away a stupid prices.

He loves winding me up so I counter his negative nonsense with reasoned arguments ....
and sell a company he really believes in to anybody that will listen. The more positive the argument the less people believe it. Donk and I will be okay here - I wonder how many of you will miss out. When the gas flows come good the price is going to multibag very quickly. Some are going to miss the boat. BTS's wife will wonder why he doubted himself I reckon.

This AIM company is the opposite of SXX and Sekaname who took on more than they could chew imho! Onc in a while one will succeed - the credentials here are unbelievably good.
A CEO with big ideas and a frugal approach is as refreshing as it gets!

TG merely tells us that he is doing his best for shareholders - so he cannot fail , whatever the outcome , imho :O) Would you sell up if a brewery had a million gallons of beer and the tap failed to open? That is what we have here. The gas is there , certified , and our tap is the dewatering process - a very large tap perhaps.

I'm rich!
But only if my few hundreds are considered real money , and the thousands lost are only on paper and are temporary :O)

Topping up with HL shares could get me an extra one or two at today's price , looking on the bright side.

Found an article that said Seka/KE had flared at Matikwe and Tsobu.
Looked for a photo of said flares for Matikwe and found this photo.
Spot who the van belongs to!

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fnewsoweto.co.za%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F06%2F448256aa-durban-paramedics-attack-750x375.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

Lesedi looks more hospitable?

You are forgiven MM.

My memory is better in fact, apart from forgetting I was in hospital from Feb 22nd to March 22nd without my laptop :O(
No wonder there is a hole in my knowledge for that period.

The March 18th post gave the information No Easy kindly supplied.
Perhaps I should go back to hospital - they didn't haf get #4 done quickly behind my back.

"Tlou Energy has drilled all six wells which comprise the Lesedi 3 and Lesedi 4 development pods (each pod comprising one vertical production well and two lateral wells) as part of the recent field drilling program. The drilling program was carried out efficiently and safely as a result of the excellent work of the field personnel. The Lesedi 3 and 4 development pods are located adjacent to the Company’s proposed central gas gathering and power generation facility. This is in a geological region that has intersected a gassier trend based on an extensive geological review of the sub-surface using all available geological and production data to date."

MM , you are playing with my mind, giving a link that does not have you quote in it :O)

I found it however here

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/botswana/tlou-energy-provides-update-on-the-lesedi-cbm-project-176167

perhaps my memory is okay after all, thanks Mia Manarote, one of my favourite xxx posters.
Don't look her up if you at work or sat next to the missus.

Well remembered MM, I wish my memory was not so awful now. I had to look up Gary Cahill to get his christian name over the weekend. I have know it for many years but it was gone, and I could only think of Tim, knowing that was another footballer.

Interesting article on the position of the lateral well in the seam.
I imagine the gas escaping into the drilled chained leaving empty chambers in the coal. The pressure from above and below then has a series of void to escape into.
So from a gas point of view the positioning in the seam does not matter!

BUT, A HUGE BUT, now consider the water! Gravity will be pulling it downwards - filling the lower drills and competing with the gas for the escape route if you drill low.
But if you drill high, I guess it remain more or less where it is?
If gas escapes through the water then the water will drop to where that gas came from.

Logically, it might mean you get faster gas from high drills but ultimately less of it. And on low drills you'll get a lot more gas once the water has drained (our current experience with #3) but the delay is greater. Cheers for that.

If you are suffering problems at LSE (it is hard to post anything) then it might be be best to copy your message for a retry if it fails completely.

I have found that back-arrow , forward arrow , and press "post message" usually redraws the screen to where you sent it (and it failed). Ifg that fails you can at least paste you message rather than give up or retype it.

Something I have never stressed here is what I think is happening at #3 and #4!
I assume everybody is thinking the same way as I do if it is obvious. A huge mistake perhaps.

I isolated Donk this morning to explain my thinking , I'll repeat it here in case somebody has not considered it.

"We are in the hands of nature .... TLOU have planted the seed at #3 and #4 and waited for germination , which they have! Next stage the plant needs to grow!
They cannot speed it up for fear of blocking the wells. Dewatering is KNOWN to take months or years - we are still measuring in months which is GOOD imho!
#4 had not even started this time last year but overtook production at #3 very quickly. It might suggest #3 is dewatering BOTH #3 and #4, and further afield, to anybody with a brain!"

Chief of those is that management over-promised on the potential here about 2-5 years back. Used that hype to pull in equity $$$, spent 40-50% of those $$$ on their own salaries and on drilling wells.

Salaries and drilling for a miner?
Salaries and materials for a manufacturer.
Salaries and booze for an off-licence?

Shock horror! What the f else? Surely nearer 100% than 40%?

.... " As always, time will tell in the end. "
LSE buffer ran out!

I was very pleased with the lack of reaction to my apparent absence, I expected nobody in particular to conclude I'd sold up and did not want the face the music.

My current view here is the same as boxing match "Fury v Wilder 1."

If betfair allowed me go back in time to that 12th round in realtime, the odds on Wilder not winning after the apparent KO would have been their maximum odds of 1000/1 ..... I could have filled my boots. In practice I'd have gone to a bookie because I could have named my own odds I suspect?

And this is exactly where TLOU is , shareprice at a mad low 2p , apparently KO'd for much less reason that Tyson.

I'm sick to death of supporting TLOU management in this against philistines who cannot see that the gas will flow eventually - just as soon as the water subsides.

It is more certain than Tyson getting up off the floor to started hitting an amazed Wilder.
It was close to a miracle, spoiled by the UK judge who idiotically awarded a 113 draw! Stiff upper lip in action - I wish Tyson had thickened it for him! Tyson won that fight by several rounds!

TLOU don't need a miracle .... all we need is for nature to takes its course, the water to slow down, and the gas to rise up!
And then the sp will take quite a battering imho.

I'm back on the pitch Bob, after a weekend of not dribbling, I have done a Stanley Matthews , avoided the many boots flying at me, have rounded the keeper and there is an open goal in front of me.

I think I mentioned GtP on Hot Copper is a different beast to one in the UK - and if proof was needed look at his post last night. The voice of reason and the nasty side of him hidden better than the Statue of Liberty by David Copperfield!

He still cannot resist the same old claptrap about the board before it started production wells only last February onwards. He simply does not accept that everything is on hold until gas flows are commercial or accepted on a que sera basis, as it looks now.

Here was his reply to some scathing criticism on HC. I was fair imho, nothing made up.
1. His absurd attack on MM's upbeat funding for BDC - from a mistake on where the money was to be spent. Tourism was never mentioned.
2. His persistent criticism of Tlou as to the composition of our gas plus CO2 and maybe other impurities. I showed CO2 is used to get more methane from the petrowiki link.
3. Unbelievably, he has doubted the suitability of horizontal wells despite all the evidence!
4. He wrongly declares we have 2 horizontal wells , which, after No Easys help, I was able to refute.
5. His complete denial of the true position TLOU is in!
He lists why , all ****** imho! There is only one story in town!

"Tlou has drilled 2 horizontal wells and hope to gain knowledge on flow rates, gas composition, coal permeability and issues with gas extraction. And it doesn’t seem to be going so well for them - is it flow rates, or Low levels of methane, or shock horror maybe horizontal drilling isn’t the best option for Moropule coal seams.... Be interesting to see how Tony back tracks on that particular outcome of it comes to that.
3 cents aussie is where I think this is headed if good news doesn’t start flowing soon. "

"
GtP
441 Posts.
2
09/03/20
06:22
Post #: 43372115
Share

I am very confident the point of message boards is to exchange opinions and ideas. My opinion of Tlou is a company with a fantastic opportunity that, for a variety of reasons, isn’t working out. Chief of those is that management over-promised on the potential here about 2-5 years back. Used that hype to pull in equity $$$, spent 40-50% of those $$$ on their own salaries and on drilling wells. But results have come up short; delays due to Govt inabilities has hurt progress very badly, none more so than in the past year where Govt has now twice said they remain committed to CBM but yet little seems to happen after the words are spoken.

As for Cherryseat personal attack on my posts, I will leave that to other to decide if he is allowed to get away with that.

What I do know is the share price is telling me things are not working out at present. And with cash from the most recent equity raise running out, time would also seem to be going against the company. As alway

"switch off geysers" - sounds like Quentin Tatarantino and Harvey Keitel (the Wolf) may be needed :O)
The incentive to get us operational looks massive.

One scaremonger has been going on about TLOU not getting Methane without unpublishes Co2, and other aliens, levels!
I have countered his arguments with pictures of the flares but today I saw this ....
much better than the pictures. Every story tells a picture?

Both quotes this morning come from https://petrowiki.org/CBM_reservoir_fundamentals

"Enhanced recovery

Methane recovery can be enhanced in CBM reservoirs by the injection of CO2 or nitrogen. Coal prefers carbon dioxide, and it will release methane to sorb injected CO2. This significantly increases the amount of methane available for production, but also causes the coal to swell, reducing permeability with time. Nitrogen reduces the partial pressure of methane, causing it to desorb from the coal.[8] The injected gas reduces the partial pressure of methane more rapidly than the total pressure can be reduced by dewatering, resulting in accelerated production.[9] An additional benefit of nitrogen or CO2 injection is that the methane can be desorbed while maintaining higher reservoir pressures, resulting in added energy to drive the methane to the wellbore. Both injection processes have been tested over the past decade. The largest pilot projects are Burlington Resources’ Allison pilot and BP’s Tiffany Unit pilot, which are both located in the San Juan basin. While these pilots were primarily designed to enhance methane recovery, pilots that are more recent focus on the benefits of both CO2 sequestration and enhanced methane recovery. "

petrowiki find - we know this unless we don't .... for those who are selling at 2p+ look at the second sentence - we are still counting in months NOT years!

"Well behavior

CBM wells usually produce little or no gas initially and have moderate to high initial water rates. On a per well basis, water rates may range from a few barrels per day for low-permeability coals up to thousands of barrels per day for high-permeability coals.

The wells may produce water for several months or years before producing significant volumes of gas.

As the water is produced, the pressure near the wellbore is reduced, allowing gas to desorb from the coal matrix. When the gas saturation exceeds the critical value, the gas begins to flow to the wellbore. If the well pattern allows for adequate interference between wells and the coals are not connected to a strong aquifer, the water rates will decline over time to some minimum that will likely continue for the life of the well. "

it goes on to impy that the first dewatering is the hardest - in as many words - Tlou have made that clear for many moons.

"Multiple wells are needed to develop a CBM reservoir. Well interference helps dewater the reservoir more quickly, and closely spaced wells achieve peak rates more quickly than widely spaced wells."

NE , not surprising mate, because I have never been clear on the terminology used in CBM.

The difference between pods and wells ,in particular. Finding the definition of a pod is proving impossible.

We wouldn't say we live in room which is comprised of a kitchen , living room, bathroom etc would we? We call it a home or a house or something.

But wells are comprised of a vertical well and several lateral wells - the start of the confusion.
I chose to consider the equivalent of a house to be a well , and the rooms to be the pods (so vertical and lateral pods, but only one well). It seems to work except for when it doesn't.

Thank you for mentioning production pods - that gave me this ....
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/tlou-energy-TLOU/share-news/Tlou-Energy-Ltd-Lesedi-Pods-Achieve-Sustained-Gas/80584973

All this time I have referred to balancing #3 and #4 which I imagined merging into one vertical well. 3a and 3b are obviously laterals, and there must be 4a and 4b too , though I cannot remember them being mentioned.

So pods are pods and wells are peas in a pod in my tiny mind now.
No wonder people say they don't understand some of my posts.

Cheers, I am now better informed and a good bit wiser (until I read another contradictory post)

http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Stakeholder-Presentation-Gaborone-30.10.2019-Final.pdf

The diagram on page 10 shows the laterals meeting the vertical at the same height. That is the only picture I can find and it is more about the various terrains perhaps , and not specific to any actual wells.

Whilst looking I found an article on coal fines.
The major problem is that are likely to reach the vertical drill (if laterals are dewatered too rapidly) and once in the vertical they are almost impossible to get out, so potential blockages are best avoided! Dragging out the dewatering phase sounds like the better of two evils.
I think that was in China , so it may have been peculiar to their coal type.

Hmmm, I can see that if the two laterals are close, but I visualised them at 180 degrees to each other while the vertical is the middle of a seam rather than at the end.
Colm spent a while saying that difference makes balancing up the pressure or equalising the pressure was complicated by that difference. It sounded like they would have liked them to be level.

Not arguing because I don't know but I need a picture in my mind.

I can see the merit in having two parallel pods if the seam is thick enough, and that they'd need a gap to stop the top one falling into the lower one.

Tbh, I was slightly taken aback by Lekka's post.
I imagined one well with #3 and #4 feeding te vertical.
It now looks as though we might have 2 separate wells #3 and #4?
Is there a 4a and 4b , or has 3a or 3b been made redundant with the survivor merging with #4 for a single well. Surely all 3 laterals are not being utilised on a single well? I'm confused.

Found this post from lekka, posted about a year ago.
When Colm said the laterals did not meet the vertical well at the same height, I thought it would be a foot or two ..... but 3 metres seems to be the true depth delta.
#4 had not even been started and neither was dewatering at #3.
We need to show a little more patience folks.

==============

Lekka
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 507
Price: 6.15
Hold

First pod completed (cont) Monday 11 Feb 2019 21:51
The Company can confirm that drilling operations at Lesedi 3 have been completed. Lateral well Lesedi 3A was drilled ~1,437m Measured Depth (MD) and Lesedi 3B was drilled ~1,440m MD with both lateral wells successfully intersecting with vertical well Lesedi 3P to complete the dual lateral pod.
Lesedi 3 is now being prepared for installation of production facilities prior to the commencement of de-watering and lowering of the pressure in the coal seam to achieve gas flow.

The drilling rig is being moved to commence drilling of the second planned development pod, Lesedi 4.

The Company will provide further updates as the drilling operations progress.
The development drilling program is being conducted in accordance with health and safety
requirements and are consistent with the Company’s approved environmental impact statement. If results are positive, these wells will form part of the Company’s initial gas-to-power project which will include installation of transmission lines and grid connection.

Talking LSE, I have a poxy PRIVACY option on my screen and cannot get rid of it (just on LSE pages). It should say INVASION OF PRIVACY imho!

Have we all got it?

Whizzer, I hope you are not relying on LSE to keep you informed.
They have missed 2 recent RNS that other web sites carried.

Thanks Damo, I was distracted on that post by talk of it being for tourism rather than energy - I'll have to stop reading ADVFN. Trouble is I am back on my search engine (to give you all a rest) and I am testing it on ADVFN which sends a login page for some of its options. Incidentally 'tourism' has been ruled out since then - the poster admitting it was a mistake.

Good to see you have another deserved tick.

btw "TL:DR" (too long , didn't read) diverted me here :O) - not seen it before, and cannot make sense of it, tbh.

Thanks MM.
Does it follow the terms will be passed on by BDC? Two years at this stage is a very healthy period. I think one year would have pleased me - we are entering a very busy period with any luck at all.

Just read Damo's post again, after a wet dog walk, decided to hose down the scooter and the hose pipe split, spent ages looking for my stanley knife, found a hack saw, repaired the hose, washed the scooter and in all that time Damo has not been ticked up from 2 ticks or had a response.