Member Info for BOTS_PROJECTS

Down2Earth - what can the newsflow here be in the next 6 months ? They have to complete TL and connect the sub-stations. Once done, then they need generate power and inject that into the grid. If they were injecting 20MW or more then that would start to become an exciting number with fairly immediate decent revenue numbers. But it isnt; it's 2MW or maybe a bit more - but in the early days, its only going 5MW (10MW would be great) and they need to stabilise that on a day by day by day by day .... to prove the concept.

And they they sell this to BPC who, I can promise you, have a dreadful reputation in Botswana for paying their contractors and partners. It just seems to me that Govt and Ministry and civil servants and BPC and BERA and anybody related to them have got it in for CBM.

In short, Tlou's problems really only begin once they actually connect to the grid. And please, no need tell me that the Pension Fund guys will come to their rescue and that everybody in Botswana wants and desires Tlou to succeed. They dont care; if they did, it would not be taking this long; they dont even understand what the dynamics of regularity of CBM feedstock to fuel power generation actually means. They have dicked around abusing the 3 CBM players, and i see nothing that makes me think there will be a change just because Tlou connect to the grid.

Tlou probably are going to have 2 billion shares in issue to deliver a meaningful energy player / proposition in southern africa. People here should face downside reality rather than keep pretending Tony is going to make it all come good. He isnt superman; and he isnt going to keep throwing his own good money after bad. Food for thought!

Well when all you do is criticise criticise criticise, what is it you think we are going to think about you, your views and opinions .... You have not offered anything of relevance or substance that i can remember reading.

Each to their own. You have your pen; LSE provides you with a platform - how you use it is entirely up to you ........

So i am still trying to convince myself on Kavango. My latest intrigue - Botswana exploration was lead by David Catterall, one of the region's most experienced exploration geologists. And Zimbabwe exploration being led by Steve Smith, the foremost geologist of Matabeleland. Both guys are the geological experts - so we cannot fault Kavango for getting experts on board.

But has their expert knowledge yet translated into world class geology discoveries? We continue to have lots of promise in the leases they explore BUT when do they strike it BIG. That appears to be missing on their glittering CVs .....

My cynical nature is obvious from thi. . But equally, I have liked the look of Kavango potential for quite some time - but I need a signal to make the big leap on this one.

Gas flows info was dressed up many years ago as being sensitive information they did not wish to release to the market. Begs the question - who would have benefited then (or now) from this information. If it was good, then surely that would have gotten many more excited about CBM in Botswana and brought players and capital to this sector. Especially when Tlou was in full blow project hyper-promo bullish detail about how great their project was.

If it ever turns out to be bad info, wow now then that would be litiguous...... But then I also doubt the good Dr and Pension Fund invested without being given this information. All being well, they understood what they were reading ........

Either way, if they gas flows are strong / really strong, I don't see why Tlou would not share this info with the market.

ASX listing requires them to provide a quarterly update, which they always do. If they are not talking outside of that calendar to me means there is nothing meaningful to say. They have been guilty of over-hyping this story for such a long time; arguably egregiously so in 100MW tender days.

Sorry but Sunshine and Arrow were so long ago, they are not really that relevant in Botswana context. Plus I believe they discovered gas, issued Reserves and sold this all on to someone with big balance sheet to develop CBM industry in OZ. I very much doubt Gilby and team thought their commercial efforts in Bots would have been impacted this badly by a lazy / carp / inept Ministry and Govt.

Given huge CBM reserves and they also continue to burn coal for power generation - the question that never gets answered satisfactorily is why is the Govt, via Ministry of Mines, so reluctant to let this industry establish and thrive for the betterment of the country? Actually i think i know why - previous President needed a bung and nobody was playing ball. Now he is in exile where for the sake of Botswana the country, i hope is a one way ticket. Elections next year October 2025 - these are a big deal there.

Website says 1,043 million shares in issue. So 1 billion. Definitely hurts the look.

Echo, I am open to being convinced that in longer term, this stock has a bright future. What i see however is 1.04 billion shares in issue and a small revenue stream just starting. Can you share some of your vision for the future here ?

1 billion shares in issue hurts the look for potential multi-bag opportunity. So many Botswana exploration projects sound outstandingly good on paper but then are unable to get into Development phase quickly, avoiding cash burn outflows for more years that anticipated.

From Insead -the four essential roles of a CEO: envisioning; nominating; enabling and managing crisis.

On these criteria, Gilby and managment team have been a failure in terms of achieving success on a timely basis. But then, this is Africa and they are grinding on with this project. It is mentioned here they are not promoting the project enough - well they overdid that back in the day, so much so i think they just have to build the project infrastructure where the sub-stations are the critical path element. Since they are doing that (slowly) and conserving cash, there doesnt seem much to promote until nearer the time when this work completes. I suspect then, Tony and team will hit the airwaves and try rekindle investor interest. In the run up to that, I agree they really should start giving more detail on gas flows - something they have consistently ignored.

If you believe in CBM being successful in Botswana, then pile in now. A shame though for those that invested for the past 5 or more years - how much time and capital wasted talking hot air about this opportunity. There was a previous argumentative poster here who always said it was way too early for this stock. Seems he was on the money.

Maybe. But what they are getting paid in nowhere near enough to make them rich. Given the slow pace of progress and workload in recent years, I wonder if they are earning salary or income from some other venture(s).

JP, LSE is a discussion platform. That means positive and negative posts; not always exclusively positive posts. Otherwise there is never any balance in the Share Chat. If MeatLoafer has another agenda, I think we should all be capable enough to spot that.

For my part, the Kalahari Copper Belt has got a plethora of reviews about how prospective the area is and companies like Kavango were amongst the first movers to try prove resources/ reserves. Just because their licences are located close to Sandfire and Khoemacau doesn't guarantee similar results. But then, if they did, that would set KAV alight for sure.

But back to the geologist who was making all the claims a few years back - where is he? What is he saying now? I am a whole less excited to listen to new management try talking things up. Tie up the loose ends first please.

HotB - the flip side is if Govt was fully committed, then why has Tlou and CBM stalled since 100MW tender issued way back in late 2016? 7 years and counting with Tlou operating there since 2010. But I accept your point that BPOPF investment signals Establishment awareness.

Go check Tsodilo Resources - iron ore project with licence dispute which has stalled progress. Game changer project for Botswana economy, yet MMGE and Moagi cannot resolve what appears a straight forward issue. Govt through MDCB were going to invest in the project; now it is one big mess of ineptitude on part of MMGE. Unless of course there is another agenda in play (my concern for CBM and Tlou).

Botswana always touted as friendly investment destination with strong legal framework. Maybe, but there are just too many bad examples there of delays and problems created from little things. None of this is good for large scale FDI flows into the country.

Would expect the power plant to be located close to Mmamabula coalfields, hence no great distance. No idea though distance to connect that to the grid - but given proximity to Gabs, probably not that far.

Financing a 300MW or 600MW plant with bankable PPA would ordinarily be very straight forward. Given coal is the feedstock will likely narrow down the likely providers of capital - but it's Africa and this will get done non-green / more shady sources.

Morupule A is 150MW plant (I think); Morupule B which has never really worked that well is 600MW - both projects backed by Govt /Ministry /BCP. (Morupule B was a giant fraud driven by previous regime.). So this 300MW plant is a Big Deal for power generation in Botswana ! Govt says it isnt deliberately blocking development of CBM - I am less convinced.

Https://www.weekendpost.co.bw/37817/business/jindal-bpc-sign-ppa-for-mmamabula-300mw-power-plant/

Weekend Post article saying Jindal of India awarded 300MW, to be increased to 600MW, PPA to build, own, operate and maintain a 300MW power plant, which will use coal from Jindal's own Mmamabula coal mine. a few interesting points referenced in this article.

Jindal were named as Preferred Bidder for this tender November 2022 - will they suffer the same delays Tlou experienced when they (and the other lot) were similarly named for CBM PPAs in 2019. Presumably not because there is no doubt about the quantity of coal resources as feedstock for the power plant.

Coal generation was included as part of the Integrated Resources Plan for power generation also a few years back. So no problem with quantity of feedstock resource; project financing for the fossil fuelled plant is chunky (P13 billion / $1 billion) though.

The power plant is expected to be fully operational in 2026 (doubt that) positioning Botswana on the path of electricity net exportation. Mmamabula coalfields are well located being 150km from Gaborone, so likely power evacuation not the same issue that Tlou has faced re building 100km transmission line. Hopefully Tlou will have delivered its 10MW CBM project by then and be scaling up quickly. But hard to see CBM being a dominant energy feedstock in the 5 years there.

Very valid point Chrisp! Which is why I am concerned about the 'apparent disappearance' of the geologist who said there was a big bunch of stuff there just waiting to be confirmed.

Surely they need to demonstrate sustained cash generation from the 2 SA projects before announcing more deals which likely are exploration potential focused.

Is there anybody following this stock - obviously no discussion here on progress and prospects. I believe this is a decent, well-run company. I guess the key question is - what are the short to medium term prospects in the diamond sector ahead for producers of raw diamonds.

Thank you. So current operations focus is generating cash from the SA sites using sub-contractor(s) for labour, equipment and money to prove the concept. Fine idea and concept - but will take a few gear changes before decent money is made.

What about Botswana I wonder? This is where my main interest lies - inward investment there in recent years has become really hard work. I think that was because the previous political family had the country in a straight-jacket but they appear to be gone (living in apparent exile in SA - who i hope soon kick them out). General elections take place this time next year so i see a year of grand-standing by current BDP regime touting Botswana achievements (Khoemacau, Selebi Phikwe restoration, better negotiated terms with DeBeers re diamonds, major investments in rail network to massively improve connectivity and transportation channels (import/ export), energy and power generation improvements (slow burner this one though).

Debswana and Lucara have the diamond sector well controlled for development and distribution side - so any space is for the junior exploration firms there like BOD, Tsodilo Resources, etc.

But the question is - can they and we make money from their exploration? Is the time right for re-looking at these projects? If not, why not. Or when.

I suspect it is still too early for junior diamond players - but watch the space for announcements of fanfare news on licence renewals and JV deals to restart exploration activities.

The Botswana Stock Exchange might be a good investment destination for next couple years if the politics stays stable and companies can attract capital markets investments.