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Icebank - what news are you expecting in the next few months ?

And DTE, when the Minister himself says ..... we will give the IPPs 'some cashflow' to help ,,,,,,,, Well I take that as being more at the rubbish end of tariff than the high end. We will never know of course; jsut as we wont ever know sustained flow rates and composition levels. But eventully the financial numbers will give us some insight.

If TG already has a Buyer for the gas fields lined up once pilot power generation is proven - wonderful. it cant happen quickly enough. I dont however see it as being Chinese buyers - Govt wont want being beholden to them for significant power generation. Or if it is Chinese buyers, they will drive CBM feedstocks in a different direction. But the possibility of environmental damage for CBM wells scattered across large tracts of Botswana under Chinese control - no, i dont see that happening. Not that it is presently relevant.

Winni - take from my posts wht you will. But i dont for a second believe many here think I am stating the obvious - or if they do, then they really dont understand what often I am saying.

DTE - I am not speculating the tariff will be rubbish. I am simply saying it wont be a fantasticly supportive tariff demonstrating Govt support to private sector IPPs trying to help Govt with their power supply deficits. Part of Pension Fund investment is via convertible note - I didnt know / remember that. There you go - even i dont know everything ......

Do you think TG thought when listing in 2012 they would still be issuing equity and convertible debt to complete the company's first pilot gas to power project in 2024 ?

How many times do you want me to say - well done Tlou for sticking with it. But that came with considerable cost. And the hard yards quite possibly are only just starting, as opposed to many here thinking their finish line is in sight with first power injection to the grid next year......

Maybe I should just post everything is going to be swell and dandy next year once first power is delivered; that the margins are likely going to be awesome; that the company will be cash flow positive within 3-6 months of commercial operations; that no more equity will need be issued; that the Dr will convert his debt to equity and dilute shareholders but at least save on interest costs; that revenues from first pilot will be sufficient to borrow the capex needed to next projects (whatever they may be); ........

Maybe you should start thinking ,,,,,,,,,

Again what I think (not know) is - selling to SAPP isnt the simple alternative often quoted. BPC own the distribution grid which means the Govt really own it (as BPC is insolvent) and no doubt they could quite easily make connection 'difficult' for IPPs to bypass them. If normal BAU in Botswana is anything to go by, Ministry will want all the cheap power they can get (to offset the more expensive foreign imported power purchased (although that might mean somebody's offshore envelope is reduced) and no doubt the next problem will be BPC delaying payments to IPPs. This has been ongoing with BPC suppliers for past few years - and is a real and current problem in Botswana now (I posted something about this couple months back).

Pension Fund owning a slice of Tlou - this has probably helped Tlou stay the course in Botswana and keep CBM alive. But the amount involved is relatively small and I personally dont think a big enough driver to motivate Ministers and civil servants and BERA and the rest to throw collective weight behind Tlou to accelerate its success. In any event, it was the Asset Manager that invested the Pension Fund's money in Tlou, so therefore it is on the Asset Manager to harangue Tlou management about share price performance. And I imagine the size of Tlou investment in the overall portfolio of Asset Manager is relatively small (accepting it is badly under water and been long time non-performing - and also market to market, so they only way for portfolio performance from here is hopefully up).

On dewatering - still early days to declare victory on how quick this is, especially relative to previous wells. Call me a cynic, but I always suspected dewatering was a convenient reason to pass the time until the other more definitively timebound aspects were actioned and progressing.

What if Govt through BPC said this is a pilot project and the onus is on you (the wannabe IPP) to prove that CBM gas to power actually works. And this is the price or tariff we are prepared to pay you, and on these terms. Take it or leave it guys.

Regardless of the agreed tariff, i cannot see it being at great profit margin to Tlou, or now Sekaname and now Sturdee Energy (4MW solar). BPC is insolvent; has been for years and will continue many more years to be dependent on Govt for funding. The locals dont want to pay for their power, and all parties need the votes so dont want to disturb the voting base too much (couldnt because of covid and certainly not pre-elections this time next year).

As someone said to me years ago about doing business in Botswana (and no slur intended to anyone) - "stop thinking like a white man". And believe it or not, the guy that aid this was a Batswana guy himself. So go figure.

But I keep coming back to my now position, the CBM landscape there has finally turned positive. And that has to be largley due to Tlou persistence in not running away when the going got tough. But it has come at a disgracefully heavy cost to shareholders, as everyone here well knows.

Even Brad - if he can bring himself to admit i been saying this for years. (There was another poster way back, not Brad, who said that dilution didnt matter - idiot !)

Https://www.esi-africa.com/news/botswana-signs-second-coal-bed-methane-power-plant-ppa/?amp=1

The article is summary of Sekaname 6MW signing ceremony. Minister Moagi comments made me wonder about 2 things:

Botswana Minister of Minerals and Energy, Lefoko Moagi, said “For Botswana, bankability and sustainability of commercial construction of CBP methane gas in sufficient quantities and quality of power generation needs to be proven through proof-of-concept pilot projects. Government fully supports the initiative by the private sector to develop a gas industry in Botswana, taking advantage of the abundant coal reserves in the country. In this regard, government is supporting the private sector through a dispensation which grants holders of coal bed methane bed prospecting licences to develop coal bed methane-fueled pilot projects aggregating currently to not more than 100MW. Government guarantees that BPC will purchase the generated electricity at reasonable tariffs, thus providing some cash flow to the developers, thus enabling the developers to raise equity and debt funding for gas extraction development,” explained Moagi. The Minister said it was high time Botswana attained commercial production of gas as there were significant benefits to be realised from its use as primary energy resource.

First - he mentions at 'reasonable tariffs' .... to provide holders of CBM licences to generate 'some cash flow'. That is of course essential to any project, but why is he mentioning it here specifically? It suggests to me the tariffs agreed with BPC are pretty lowball - maybe not earth-shattering news to anyone here. But is it confirmation of expectations.

Second, and the one I cant figure out, he mentions Govt is supporting private sector 'through a dispensation' which allows CBM licence holders to deliver MWs. What is the nature of such dispensation I wonder ? There is already the previous 100MW tender so i dont see that as any kind of dispensation. They are existing licence holders, so does it somehow affect CBM operators licence renewals? Like I say, i find this one strange.

Winni - a couple of vertical wells should produce enough gas for 2MW, and Tlou has drilled multiple horizontal wells this far. And the previous wells seemed to be taking forever to dewater sufficiently. Yet these wells are performing 'quickly'.

Somebody posted about flaring gas earlier - well they do need to flare the gas to get the photograph. And probably flare a certain length of time to track flow rates. But Yes, you would hope that time is minimised and gas collected and compressed for future use. This assumes however they have already purchased the equipment needed at well head to capture and compress the gas as feedstock for the pilot power generation project.......

Because 2 months holidays ahead - everything slows down there from now to mid December, and next news will be the quarterly progress report due end January 2024.

I imagine Thornback comment is a dig at me - childish. This is great news for Tlou and for commercialising CBM in Botswana !! I could not be happier Full Stop.

Can we assume now that Tlou has drilled sufficient number of wells to supply their 10MWs gas supply?

Gents, in the hope of promoting discussion - given theTlou and Sekaname PPAs are for relatively small MW size, surely by now they must have demonstrated to themselves they have sufficient gas flows for these pilot projects. The question then becomes gas content - ie levels of CO2 and CH4. Higher CH4 keeps costs and complexity down; high CO2 drives costs higher re stripping and cleaning the gas.

I note the first small scale renewable solar PPA for 4MW was signed between BPC and Sturdee Energy yesterday. It seems that BPC are only prepared / interested in signing small scale PPAs with IPPs. Given BPC are technically insolvent and totally dependent on State support for funding, i guess that isnt a big surprise. It puts the commercial risk totally on the IPPs, which yet again is classic Africa of trying to build the continents infrastructure using other people's money.

Another nothing post - about nothing.

As always, talking about history and things on which you have no clue. I didn't realise your son was the CFO either - now it all makes sense..

https://mit.irr.org/28-biblical-passages-which-explicitly-teach-there-only-one-god (substitute god for -delusional-view-on-the-history-of-CBM-in-Botswana). Enlightenment would probably be too much for you to absorb at one time !

Blinded - good word that. Those posting recently here seem totally blinded to wanting only to pick a fight with me. Sorry, I wont be playing with you.

This is a message board about Tlou Energy, a company who's primary aim is to commercialise CBM in Botswana and maybe southern Africa. It has a rich history of self-publicising its market opportunity, only to find business in Africa / southern africa does not progress in the logical way that western business minds think. To me, that seems the greatest mistake Tlou management and Tlou investors have made - using the benefit of hindsight.

Tlou have managed to stay the course - well done them but at considerable cost. Sekaname say they have spent USD57m - that sounds comparable to Tlou I reckon (give or take). Botala Energy have arrived on the scene - and seem to making rapid progress (time will tell).

Carry on criticising me if you like - hope that makes you feel better about yourself and your investment decision. Really i dont care - but please show more class than hurling insults. And get your heads around - you were told this was a dog of an investment 5 years ago. Fact ! Blame nobody but yourselves for investing here 5 or more years too early. There are plenty of fools invested in african commodity projects in the same or worse position than Tlou shareholders. And probably Sekaname shareholders. And maybe in time Botala Energy.

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mmg-to-acquire-botswana-coppersilver-mine-2023-11-21

Announcement on the sale of Khoemacau - but still subject to a variety of approvals. Not least of which is Mines Union approving the Buyer - by no means a foregone conclusion.

And you never discuss anything interesting. All you ofer is criticism of someone who warned you CBM and Tlou was not the investment multi-bagger you all got yourselves worked up about years back. Where is the dishonesty on that !

I cannot think of any chat board cabal that is so focused on the non-issues affecting the company. Really guys, is this all you have got ?! Then again, maybe this is your subconscious way of disguising your disappointment at the non-financial performance related to YOUR investment decision.

One person, and one person alone warned you back then. That is another FACT

@Winni - you know this for fact, or like Brad you are simply sharing your opinion?

What is Fact is - Both were awarded Preferred Bidder status back in 2019 with Tlou getting initial 2MW (and they kept saying they would scale to 10MW) and Sekaname getting initial 97MW. Did Sekaname get awarded 97MW becasue they submitted a carp tender submission? There must have been a basis or a reason in their tender submission - surely ?!

The question you are posing is Why are they only signing for 6MW PPA now. You dont know; I dont know; Bradsmith SAF does not know (despite him claiming all sorts of reasons).

Donks got criticised by the cabal here years back for supposedly posting comments which could not be confirmed. This is the kind way of saying you all called him a liar. Well about time you and your mates got over this endless critiicism of Sekaname / Donks and opened your minds and eyes (I am not sure many of you have an investment brain) and tried to figure out what CBM is all about for real in Botswana.

What is real is this - Tlou has been a disaster of an investment for everyone associated in last 10 years - FACT. It is probable that same applies to Sekaname investors.

Noted that you 'think' Tlou will get the greater share of 100MW - no-one would ever have thought your thinking here would be otherwise.

Sekaname - noted they are closer to Serowe than Tlou. 2 points - will Sekaname need to build a transmission line or might one already exis closer to their licences? And is Serowe the only point where power can be injected to the grid?

Sekaname are getting it easy - what on earth do you mean by this you stupid man. Sekaname were the pioneer CBM explorers back in the day, they say they have spent historical USD57m, were awarded 97MW plant that for whatever reason is currently a pilot 6MW plant, .... Talk about rose-tinted glasses!! Your bias is as shameful as most of your opinions (none of which are based in Fact) are stupid.

But keep google searching - and posting matters 99 percent irrelevant to CBM industry in Botswana, and how we can make money therefrom (as opposed to your endless posting trying to justify your investment decision here0.

Learn how to listen in to the link yesterday; learn something new instead about CBM in Botswana. Maybe then I can take some of what you post seriously. There was a load of new information spoken by various Govt and Ministry people attending yesterday. As well as the CEO of Sekaname setting out their strategic intent - please dont be so proud or so stupid as to just ignore what they had to say.