Member Info for Bondy123

Agree largely with your post, except the below; because we don’t have a containerised cracker yet, so nothing is happening at Middlesbrough….

2. Industrial Scaling at Port Clarence

While the pilot plant generates early cash, the real scale is happening in Middlesbrough with the Industrial Chemicals Group (ICL). The deployment of Hy-5 units, capable of producing 500kg of hydrogen per day, proves that AFC is no longer just a laboratory story. They are now an industrial player in the global decarbonization market.

I honestly think they would be mental to maintain their position at this stage. This has well and truly bottomed out over the past couple of years. Just pure probability would suggest this is on the way up.

I strongly believe that the launch (and deployment to ICL) of the containerised cracker to ICL will see this to £250-£350 market cap. £0.20-£0.30p I.e 100% from where we are now..

Precisely why the focus needs to be on ‘when will we have the containerised cracker’.

‘It also provides further flexibility in the timing of the relocation of the Dunsfold pilot cracking plant as the training of operatives in a live environment can now be conducted at Dunsfold.’

It’s still supposed to go to ICL at some point, but

What would be the point? Not trying to be neggy but feels like a delay to me and a bit of an AB style RNS. Will still be asking the question about the containerised cracker if I can get to the demo. Has anyone heard back?

Key question. Some part of me thinks that with the demo’s coming, this RNS goes to explain why we would still see the larger scale demo unit still at afc. Whilst I don’t doubt that this RNS will bring positive things to afc, what does it really change? The relationship is still with ICL to distribute the hydrogen from ammonia, so, to move forwards, they still need a containerised cracker. Until we have that nothing much has changed. So, John Wilson, when will we see one of those?

I've been avoiding saying this, but I'll say it now. This time, I do think it's different.

When AB was in charge, I admit, I did fall for his BS plenty of times. Ian Williamson was less speculative, AB came in with bluster. I wouldn't say that AB was 'all bad' for AFC, because if AFC become successful now, there a certain things he handed over that would be key to that. AB's problem was that he didn't know how to prioritise, but he did keep the company alive through a few hairy moments. Overall though, he contributed to the lack of confidence in AFC that's reflected in the SP even today.

My main question with him was 'how are we going to do all of this' with the limited resources we have? It didn't seem realistic, and in the end, it wasn't. What i see now is more beautiful simplicity. I can see clearly now what our priorities are, and how we would achieve them operationally. I can see how we will start to make money. Already, the JV's / JDA's have money attached to them, and we're no longer doing vanity projects.

This guy has come in and filled his boots with shares, alongside his wife. As has the CFO and the chairman in the past 24 months. This is a strong indicator of perhaps what they see inside compared to what we see outside. I think when you have such a fundamental change in leadership and strategy, i think we can certainly conclude the business is being run differently, but in terms of success we will have to wait and see but I like what I am seeing so far.

I think the technology validation we are seeing from S&P partner and Komatsu for the cracker could see us get to 20-22p in the near term. That would be around £250m market cap which is nothing in terms of IP for energy technology.

Some exciting near term things for me are;

1. To see the original cracker generating revenue at ICL. However small it is initially, it doesn't matter, we have a route to market as a hydrogen supplier.

2. To see the containerised cracker. Maybe we'll see this at the demo day. Even if not, my main question will be when. Remember, we will not be waiting around for someone to buy this, as there is already a home for it at ICL, where it will be generating revenues.

3. Now that the next gen fuel cell is built within the next couple of months we could see certification and an order. That means an initial set of fuel cells out there with a major construction company, to whom we can provide the fuel at a competitive cost. We go to demo at AFC, to full end-to-end demo in a live environment. In that time Volex will be in a position to spit these out like hot cakes.

All while we still have a considerable amount of money in the bank. Exciting times.

Am I making it up, or did JW say in a video somewhere that the demo plant would move to ICL?

“ Initial revenues expected in early 2026, subject to permitting, generating up to 400kg/day of hydrogen, followed by incremental capacity through AFC Energy's Hy-5 portable, containerised ammonia crackers capable of generating up to 500kg/day.

AFC Energy and ICL have agreed terms to incorporate the JV, with further detailed terms to be agreed between the parties. Once established, the JV will initially acquire AFC Energy's pilot ammonia cracking plant and hydrogen compression system in Q4 2025 (subject to permitting requirements) with initial revenues expected in early 2026. This will be followed by the sale of Hy-5 units to the JV once productionised.”

The demonstration will demonstrate the fuel cells ‘ along with the production of hydrogen from our market-leading ammonia cracker’.

My understanding was that the large demonstration plant had been moved to ICL. Does that mean we may see a containerised cracker announced closer to the date? I.e around results time?

I disagree. I think it's worth £250m today on IP alone.

Tech* not deck

I imagine it is very different integrating the deck in to a bulldozer compared to a ship, but I take your point that the core tech at a component level is ‘done’…

This is an interesting it of news but as the market reaction suggests, not enough to move the share price. This is probably a 12-24 month wait before we see if anything happens, as the RNS suggests multiple times….theres…’potential’.

As it has been for a while, it seems the only thing that will move it is a solid fuel cell order in the near term. Once the ‘core’ proposition is being monetised I think the market may factor things like this in more significantly than they would now?

Notably the hy-5 (containerised) cracker is not being demonstrated at the demo day, clock is ticking on that too. I’d like to see a picture of it like we are seeing on the next gen fuel cell now…

Look again…

This board has it's own PR company which you can pay......

"12 months to basically re-design this. What was AFC doing for the previous 20 years?"

I am Adam Bond's biggest critic, but this is unfair. AFC historically have been trying to carve out an advantage in the fuel cell sector, because hydrogen was available. It is only because the market is turning towards ammonia at this particular time, and that AB afforded the initial development of the cracker that JW has been able to come in and deprioritise the fuel cell from a development perspective and prioritise the cracker. The best thing he has done is prioritise our resources towards the cracker (well, one hopes at this point).

The upside being we have a cheaper fuel cell, the downside being it is more easily replicated by competitors who can do the exact same thing (and perhaps with better resources to do so). We're banking on the fact that we can provide the hydrogen, so they may as well have the fuel cell from us as well. Additionally, we have built an enviable reputation and, importantly, 'in market' experience through previous deployments which will give prospective customers more confidence.

Big tick from me. I've been saying that I will be happy when I see completed products, and we seem to be there with the new generation of fuel cell.

To me, I'm interpreting this RNS as saying 'we have a first version of our next gen fuel cell, it seems to be working as it should, now we need to test it with our partners and get it certified'.

I put a 'realistic' timeline 6 months on this until this happens. Around that time, perhaps a little before, perhaps a little later we might see some fireworks commercially.

Would be that surrounding a fuel cell order. We've not seen a 'new' generation fuel cell, but it seems the 'hard yards' of getting buy in that they're a good idea have been done over the past year or two. We would be able to supply the hydrogen to any initial set of fuel cells through ICL. The main barrier has been cost, so I can imagine that a contract for a fairly substantial number of initial units could be coming for Volex to help manufacture. It's been almost a year since they first came in. Let's assume 3-6 months to get the first version created, then there is probably a testing, and certification to be done before we go out to take orders for manufacturing. Surely that can't be far away now.