Member Info for Bondy123

The truth, itm are looking like they’ll do £40-£50m in revenue this year, their market cap is therefore around 20x revenue. Considering their revenue growth and near term projections, I don’t think they can be considered as particularly overvalued. I think they’re about right for now, again, until they release more progressive news, and confirmation of further revenue upside such as from their deal which will supply NATO.

Itm and afc are at different parts of their journey, so you can judge itm as a multiple of their revenue, whereas, with afc it can turn rapidly so the market is pricing some of that in, in the absence of said revenue. The revenue does need to come at some point though, I would say between now and the end of the year…

Ceres, I can’t comment as not analysed that properly. Space X - don’t get me started!

‘why is the foot still on H-Powers throat‘?

Perhaps because based on current revenues the market is already being generous giving them a £147m valuation?

I agree that there is a lot to potentially look forward to, but based on what’s out there at the moment and the lack of anything else substantial, what justification is there for this to go further?

When afc sells a significant number of fuel cells, ce marks, completes the first hy5, and announces the S&P partner we will then, we’ll see some upside. Until then same range as past 12 months IMO.

This is massive news, been sitting on the sidelines here for a number of years. Piled in today.

Let’s hope that the cost of ammonia and hydrogen can remain competitive, and that the implications (as it relates to decision making around cost) remain favourable to AFC until the point they can get a couple of orders under their belts.

My biggest fear here at the moment is not even AFC specific. It is the continued outflow of money from riskier assets, such as stocks (particularly aim stocks) as a result of higher interest rates caused by inflation. Today, we know fuel prices are going to remain high for a while which affect everything, together with fertiliser shortages that will hit food, increased borrowing costs, etc it could have an impact that means even with positive developments, afc could be swimming against the tide when actual good news that we as investors seem ‘progressive’ does hit the market. Afc will realistically need to raise money within the next year, so I hope it’s at a point where the market is in a positive place. Currently I can’t see how uncle Donald is going to make things any easier, any time soon.

There is some truth to this argument but remember the cost of other fuel (diesel) goes up too. And luckily, at this moment in time we don’t exactly need lots and lots of it, except for r&d purposes. I do have a slight concern, and this may be naivety or lack of knowledge in this area but there’s a lot of talk about food shortages because of the blockage of fertilizer, presumably ammonia for fertilizer is going to be a priority with the more limited supply that exists, so perhaps a question for the agm is, how exactly is this impacting them?

Btw, not just AFC, a lot of stocks took a hit for a sustained period of time, especially aim.

Well, look at what happened since Feb 2022 when the Ukraine war started and there were supply chain issues for fuel…we had only just started coming out of the back of that.

With respect, gingerT, the political side of it and the impact of higher oil prices does have an impact on the stock market and especially stocks like afc. Just look at the last time there was a spike in inflation and how that correlated with AFC.

Starmer has made exactly the right decision as far as trumps war is concerned. We can’t say yes every time. I saw £1.65 for diesel at one filling station today, this is a direct result of this stupid war. We can’t do their bidding all the time. He’s already told us we’re on our own for our own security so this should show him we’re not here to be pushed around. It’s actually quite a courageous move if you ask me. I say that as someone who didn’t vote Labour at the last election.

I went to the investor day today and left feeling quite excited.

I guess a thanks to all the staff who really spent as much time as everyone wanted taking questions. I really got a sense of excitement not just from a product perspective,, but the clarity and direction the company is now taking was clear from all of the conversations I had.

The generator is really quite something. It looks and feels like a product that you could reasonably see someone saying yes, I’ll take ‘x’ number of them. It looks and feels like something that belongs on a construction site and it was clear all of the staff were excited about it.

The cracker is equally exciting, still some work to do to containerise it but seemingly that work is well underway and it is going to be a game changer once it is complete.

From a short - nearer term perspective, afc themselves generate enough hydrogen to suppport all of the fuel cells they will be putting in the market.

I went along today for two reasons. To see if I can look at the product and envisage whether I could see them in the field, and secondly to look the staff in the face, to ask questions and to get a sense of their optimism or otherwise.

The summary is; I was more than satisfied and am much more comfortable with my holding than before going, so overall a good day out.

The more attractive Hydrogen becomes.....

Markets will likely be down due to Iran situation..

yes, i will share any observations sono***un. keen to speak to mike rendall if possible that day.

Having watched the presentation, I was neither more or less positive about AFC’s prospects.

What it certainly did do though is pour a bit of cold water on the ‘moonshot’ claims. For the rest of this financial year we will see book build for an initial 15? Units, if paid in advance, thats £1.5m. Add that to £100k per month (using someone’s calculations on this board), making that c.£2m. Let’s assume half of the £2m komatsu jda pays out that’s £3m. This is way short of what that fella writing the moonshot article predicted, I think he expected 10 hy-5’s for this year, when we will have one - potentially - if there’s no slippage in 2027 financial year. Perhaps, the dunsfold cracker will simply provide for the initial lc30’s?

Granted, we may hear more about revenue partnerships affecting 2027 (for fuel cells) which could add value but we are way off some of the predictions for 2026 in there, even though overall progress is positive.

For me, the biggest risk in this investment is in the ability to successfully containerise the cracker. This is really something that is being built ‘from scratch’ and is not a foregone conclusion, and you’ll see on the timeline, the thing we have to wait the longest to see. This makes me slightly anxious.. As with the lower Thames crossing, we missed that opportunity because the products were not ready, I hope this time with the cracker we are not beaten to it by another supplier that is ready to go before we are.

I think ce marking by August is realistic from a fuel cell perspective but these products are not particularly unique except within the overall package which includes fuel supply. Even the usp of working in construction may become eroded by geopura’s exposure at LTC. That’s the standard that’s been set. Being in bed with a major partner such as speedy does help though.

The S&P partner name probably does need to be revealed soon to support the share price. I think the commercial team will seek to deliver some partnerships by the second half of this year, whilst the product team have to be all hands on deck with the cracker.

JW was right to caution that things are non linear - I expect that he knows that containerising the cracker and having a final product there could present some challenges but let’s hope not.

I will be attending the open day on Thursday, and looking forward to it.

I agree on the 1% scepticism point.

Been around too long to not have some degree of scepticism, but clearly am hopeful / optimistic. Again will point out that Bond got JW to around 75% of the position he is in, despite how long it took.

I think we can assume that at this point the fuel cell works, so now it’s a matter of who wants them, and how many, and are volex ready to go? Am I missing anything, does the new fuel cell need certification?

Biggest question is : how long until we see a containerised cracker. This is pivotal to the entire viability of the company.

LTC not HS2*

What’s to say that AFC’s equipment will still not be used on HS2? Nowhere did it say Geopura is the exclusive supplier to the project…

Paid 12.88p. The main reason is the strong signals for 2026 revenue contracts.

I can't see these levels remaining where they are when contracts for the fuel and fuel cells start to unravel. Also, the more I am thinkng about it, a low cost fuel cell with market leading low cost hydrogen is going to be an absolute winner.

Looking forward to the event next thursday!

Yes

To be honest, I don’t think afc need to release any further news in the next week what we have now is enough to keep interest to the next level. Key is when will the first containerised unit be completed and ready for testing. This must happen before we see multiple units. JW has said that himself and it is logical.