The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Assuming All of the Mid case figure for Contingent Reserves of 35.4 million barrels can be extracted, this equates to 9,700 bopd for 10 years ( averaged in simplistic terms) on top of existing production. Also the new reserves addition of 2.4 million barrels is 1 years production at 6,575 bopd . So of the 3.2 million barrels produced last year , 75% of that has been replenish ed by the CPR . Not bad and should provide comfort. Single well risk still an issue but one would expect funding should be forthcoming for 1 or 2 additional wells once debt free in current High Oil price environment
Flying Pie, thx
I guesstimated 100 million $ so exactly halfway between your 2 hypothesis. Whether HUR will let cash accumulate for a few months or immediately go for more drilling and maybe new debt remains to be seen.
Assuming Bonds cleared in June, 10k boepd maintained and say 80$ oil floor til end 2022, What's the Cash flow Projected for H2 2022 anyone ?
Nice rise today. Namibia Welwetchia prospect looks gigantic in surface area terms at 25km x 10km . Bit early to speculate re. GBP Italian acreage but Italy deal with Algeria indicates urgency to secure Gas supplies. So offshore Italy exploration might be encouraged now and accelerated . GBP have application under review for 4 large blocks
Graff Discovery 2 Billion boe
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/happy-days-shell-s-graff-discovery-in-namibia-holds-2-billion-boe-of-oil-and-gas-sources/2-1-1197669
Good recap or intro for those unfamiliar with Cameroon License. Low risk Appraisal drill , 100 million prospective to North and potentially Major Deep exploration upside. Total let this License go because they hadnt processed seismic and were not interested in the small scale shallow prospects at the time. Majors such as Total go for the biggest drills as is evidenced by their recent 3 in a row run with Brulpadda, Luiperd and Venus. All 3 expected to be 1 Bn recoverable . Interesting bits start around 4mins in
https://youtu.be/99o5-9G7XFE
Was a whisker away from buying Serica at 3p in 2016 when they were priced for failure. 100+ bagger !
I bought Chariot previously in 2009 at 14p , sold at 84p. Thats why I revisited at 2p. Missed the 2011 run to 400p on Char. I chose to hold TRP rather than Char this time round as I thought the 8000 bopd potential in shallow water of Thali would attract Investment long before offshore Gas. Funny how the market can confound your expectations
This should be a little higher in time, but it's hard to watch so many other small companies the oil sector motor ahead. Just watching Chariot oil hit 20p. I bought it in 2019 around 2.5p around same time as Tower but sold a Yr later. A 10 bagger let go
Last time I checked, I think there are are a further 2 extensions possible after May 2022.
I can't fault the foresight of the CEO in the assembly of 3 highly prospective licenses many years previously. COVID aside, the issue would appear to be with Cameroon end. One quibble I'd have would be whether a merger with another small oiler with some existing production some time ago would have had TRP drilling by now.
Tullow just signed off on addition of 5000 bopd from the Jubilee and Ten fields. Unhedged I understand & Free cash flow Projected to be 300 million $ from 2022 to 2026 at 75$ a barrel. I invested here 3 yrs ago on the basis of Thali License and the anticipated prospect of Tower going from 0 to 4000 bopd ( 50% of 8000 ) in a strong oil proce environment. The South African and Namibian licenses are a bonus with huge upside but getting Thali into production is the stepping stone.
Also there is 250 million in ring-fence tax losses to use up as I understand
Thx
So that's 1050 Boepd unhedged I make it , mostly oil . Operation costs about 38 dollars a barrel I think. Some inflation to be expected but anyone wanna take a stab at net profit per barrel with oil at say 100$ ?
Don't know this share particularly well, obviously there is the website but can anyone elaborate on the likely profits for next year what with the 2000 bopd & the recent oil price environment- what portion of production is hedged if any and at what price?
I gather IGAS has debt of circa 12 million which a few have mentioned is expected to be rapidly reducing .
The Shale and Geothermal is a nice bonus but it's the existing production that interests me , thx
Njom well at 8000 boepd and 64$ Brent price was Projected to be
180 mill in Gross Revenues , 146 million in Gross Cash flow, and 98 Million Net .....to Contractor for 2023 .
Anyone want to calculate at say 80$ and 100$ ?
"I don't know why New Age are trying to attract a partner to help out with the cost of seismic - they made around $850 million a few years back selling one of their other assets.Tight fisted or what!"True....what's that all about? Never mind seismic, They could drill a deepwater well or 3 with that kinda money. Maybe they'd be interested in the deeper prospects in Thali Cameroon
The Venus well is being eagerly watched as it is so huge. An S shaped structure of about 50km x 10km wide. Its less about the proximity of Towers Namibian blocks and more about the depth. Total are looking for oil at great depth in the Aptian carbonate geological layer which Repsol and Tower failed to reach some years ago. While not a direct analogy , there were some oil seeps recorded over Towers Namibia block back in 2010. Most of the seeps were recorded in the South around the Kudu area where Shell and Total are drilling and also halfway aup the Coast. Galp are also in the Kudu area adjacent block to Total. As someone said on Advfn board, Tower have managed to hang onto their early mover status in Namibia and retain the license through a major bear market for junior oil stocks so hopefully it pays off .
Cameroon economics surely much better at 90 $ oil than 40 . Going from 0 to 8000 bopd in the event of a successful appraisal well would be quite the result. Even if they got 4000 bopd net would be quite a step change.
Also if I might offer a view on number of shares, I think there may be possibility of a 1 for 10 consolidation within a Yr or 2 to bring number of shares to about 270 million from present 2.7 billion . Would like to see this done from the 1.5 to 2p area ideally rather than sub 1p , giving 15 to 20p. Been following Tower since early attempt at Namibia but wasnt invested at the time.
AT 23% or 50 million bbls recoverable to RKH in a success case (rated 23% COS currently ) that's 9000 boepd for 15 yrs to RKH so Not to be dismissed. They acquired it from Mediterranean Oil and Gas I believe and have had it in the portfolio for yrs. No mention of it yest though..