RE: Things Could Be Worse14 Nov 2021 09:48
@ijgs If you simply take a snapshot of current SP (which can fluctuate hugely) against analyst's target price, then I'm afraid other analysts' of ~1000p are even more wrong about Darktrace. Interestingly though, Darktrace is only one of two that were downgraded by PH (do they really hate ML so much?). Many 'tech' stocks have fallen 30-50% in last month or so, PH's report must have spooked investors the like of THG, Alphawave, Wise etc.
Anyway, analysis ratings are irrelevant now, whether it is PH or Berenburg or Jefferies. Why? It is quite obvious by looking at the SP chart. Since PH's report broke, SP bounced back twice over 10% fom 730p to 802.5p, and more recently 577.5p to 649.5. So obviously people who believed in PH had already sold off in the first drop, and the rest are more inclined to believe Berenburg/Jefferies. So, what killed the momentum? You've guessed it, investors sell off.
Unlike target price which is anybody's guess, sell off is real and it has happened. For those who've been following/trading Darktrace is no stranger to the secondary placement@580p (i.e. the 'first' sell off), it happened twice before and bounced back so we're not worried about that. However, the director Veronica's offloading really killed it.
How much damage can be done if investors really offload their shares? Of course this may not happen with Darktrace but just as reference, Elon Musk publicly announced he would sold 10% of his shares, and Tesla SP is down over 15% from the peak. I think it will bounce back quickly once he has sold all the shares he promised, so I'm still holding it.
Therefore, for those who has strong hold opinion on Darktrace for long term, I would urge you to not look at the daily SP, or kept thinking it will shot up to 1300p like Crowdstrike/SentimentOne (DT SP is clearly uncorrelated with their US counterparts now). It is for the benefit of your mental health. Trust your instinct, and come back to check out the price after a month or so.