Member Info for bobocaca

You can't really predict SP. No one predicted SP to collapse from 900 to 350, even lower then PH's 473p target. No one predicted rise to 25% after trading update, then felling to 7%. No one predicted 15% drop on last Monday. I twice predicted SP to fall when ML lose his court cases but that never materialised. The daily SP is largely determined by big players. Unless you have instinct of Sanchez, it will largely be futile to try to time the market. It is more practical to stick to your own set of rules to buy/sell.

I was very worried, but I'm not really worried now. The most important bit is how the market react to the news, and it has been responding quite well.

I don't worry about US 'confiscate' or 'force sell' ML shares because that is at least 2 years away. Even if it did, it is more likely to be conducted in orderly fashion by selling to institutional investors. Will ML sell his shares to cover legal cost? Possibly. The bottom line is, if the market is happy that ML is no longer a problem, and if they believe Darktrace is good business, then their market force will be able to match the big selling just like the first two institutional selling where SP recovered quickly.

From calm SP in last 3 days, and recovery in Nasdaq, and half year update in March, cyberwar from Russia, I'm more confident in DT than ever.

https://www.verdict.co.uk/cybersecurity-innovation-among-tech-industry-companies-has-dropped-off-in-the-last-year/

Darktrace Holdings Ltd has recently ramped up R&D in cybersecurity. It saw growth of 69.2% in related patent applications in the three months ending November compared to the same period last year - the highest percentage growth out of all companies tracked with more than 10 quarterly patents in the technology and communications sector.

If the SP doesn't collapse on Monday, then we will know that there is no big players selling. Perhaps because shorters are gone and no fund is holding shares for them to sell now. In that case, we could manage share sell by ML, SP might take a hit of 7%, then recover and move on.

Looks like I'm not the only one having this feeling. It is just too calm. Perhaps the shorters are gone now.

The SP is performing very well considered ML news, and many UK tech stocks are down over 5%.
The calmness of the SP feels surreal to me, is the shorting gone, or is it the tranquillity before the storm.

The former CFO is in jail in US now, I think he paid fine in low tens of millions, and he is still keeping his Darktrace shares.

https://www.cityam.com/what-a-day-for-mike-lynch-priti-patel-to-make-extradition-decision-and-3-7bn-high-court-fraud-ruling-at-11-30am/

Today is the day to end all uncertainties.

I think there is huge market for this product in the remote working world. Apart from the benefit of preventing hacking, this can be used as tool to monitor employees too, think companies will love this.

Don't think City folks are techy enough to understand the new product (I don't really either). Furthermore, the product announcement came out quite late in the afternoon while the SP already started rising in the morning. The only logical reason I could think of is that the panic investors spooked by Ukraine, Fed interest, and knew of ML court case decided to dump their shares on Monday. That also explains why the SP didn't drop yesterday when ML failed his court case which was quite unusual given how sensitive is this stock to bad news. They waited a day, see nobody else was dumping the shares, and also learned from newspaper that ML could still appeal and spend another year in the court. So they started to buy back.

There was a large 4M volume share traded last Friday, followed by 5M on Monday. If my hypothesis is true, then there are about 10M shares to buy back, and this rally could last for another 2 days. If Priti announce no extradition, or no announcement at all (no news is good news), then ... this will put a big smile in our face.

In my recollection, the last time the SP went steadily up was back in the good old days before PH report. Let's hope it doesn't drop (too much) before market closes in half an hour time.

Why not focus on today's Darktrace SP instead of yesterday's US market?

SP has been rising steadily. Guess those who sold fearing ML extradition are buying back now.

Kick did the broker say why funds aren't buying Darktrace yet?

SP didn't move a lot after ML's news broke yesterday, I was quite surprise by that. The volume was low yesterday, looks like whoever worried about it might have already sold up on Monday.

I have always wondered who are the people behind these large trades. If they are fund buying then who are the seller with large volume, market maker that buys during the day? But the thing is, they piggyback the closing SP, so large volume doesn't drive up SP in open market, so is of no use to us. Would be good if someone could explain what happen behind the scene.

Darktrace SP has been down for 3 months, I guess Charles must have mentioned Crowdstrike and SentinelOne SP were going up like 100 times in that period. Have you not notice they have zero impact on Darktrace SP? While US market affects UK market but individual companies don't.

It is actually a good thing that Darktrace doesn't reveal the name of their big customers. Otherwise media will use this to attack DT if there is any security breach at their customers, even if it is not in area protected by DT tech.

With regard to AGM, if the SP and hence spirit is high at the next AGM, then I'd happy to attend.

It's valuation is higher but SP performance is roller coaster like DT.

Probably not a lot better if had joined Nasdaq, take a look at SentinelOne share price.

Looks like he may still be able to delay the extradition for another year by making appeal.