Member Info for bluetigeruk

Or they are desperately trying to find something to report that is +ve to the market to justify the current share price move - just putting the counterfactual out there/

Any info on who the constant and large seller is in the market?? And what position size is being cleared out. Is there an underwriter holding leftover placing or something?

If I was FD of Novacyt i would prepare a monthly sales update last Monday of the month - and a trading update 6-8 weeks after each VAT Quater, then occasional RNS reports as large contracts etc are signed under AIM rules for price significant announcements.

I think it would clear up the market need for constant sugar rush news - just have a clear and consistent pattern to it - which is what larger companies do of course.

Good Luck.

Well he hasn't told me to sell yet !

I got into GGP based on a family member who is a geologist working in Tasmania on a gold prospect there. On our annual Christmas catch up call he said its time to buy GGP. Thanks uncle.

Sorry i should have added Page 13 when you follow the URL link

https://t.co/HViRUNisFA?amp=1

The Scallywag prospect has 4 x targets for 2020 - below BLACKBEARD - South South East there is a huge magnetic anomoly - do we have any information on that yet & any ideas why it is not a suitable drill target?

Thanks all - BT-UK

Hollywood (Paul??) - its probably not patented yet - its most likely a Patent Pending which gives the business / inventor / 12-18 months to exploit and then register the full patent if there is something novel to protect.

RUN RATE

Hi i posted this a few days back and will update with each Business Update from NCYT. Just for a bit of technical financial theory - the value of a business is 'calculated' as the present value of expected future cash flows and then discounted vs cost of money and risk back to present value.

In the case of NCYT its future cash flows are unproven and therefore with a high risk multiplier - hence the low share price currently - but each month they deliver repeat sales and then sales growth the risk factor reduces and the future cash flows increase along with the valuation.

The big risk here is that the new orders and re-orders suddenly tail off - but i dont see this personally as they have WHO authority and are selling globally with some big distributors representing them. Hence why i am invested. The day to day share price moves are magnified in a thin market in AIM - buys cause 10% + jumps and sells similar falls - it seems to me the past few days the market (makers) are dropping the price down until then find a bid - so they can create some order flow - so i wouldn't worry too much - once buying returns they will be jumping the price up trying to encourage sellers - its their job to do this.

Run Rate

Its all down to the run rate and how stable it is – or is not.
RNS 27/3 £18m orders
RNS 27/4 NHS 1million tests a month x 6m from may > oct = £30m
RNS 29/4 £90m orders (+£72m)
RNS 03/6 £120m orders (+£30m)
RNS July ???
If NCYT can maintain say £30 - £50m per month to end of year then we get mid £40m x ~ 10 = £400m at say 40% margin to accommodate distribution agreements – gives £160m Pre Tax (probably loads of R&D tax credits) – then 70 shares = EPS of £2.28 at say 10 – 15 PE gives share price range £22 - £34 per share.
Its all down to maintaining the run rate / order rate.

Maybe just shoot them Jimboo.
Would slow any transmission rate.

I worked for an NHS pathology IT Comms group. Once an item is listed it more or less automatically reorders. Once a product line is established and is tested by the path robots and Comms reported, the product line remains listed for a long time, unless it has quality or supply issues. Look at Thermo as a strong example. They can Guarantee sales,more or less.
Nova can get into the same groove with its WHO related sales. One question. Anyone know the shelf life of the assays? Vs Reliability. Some have quite short reorder dates.

Run Rate
Its all down to the run rate and how stable it is – or is not.
RNS 27/3 £18m orders
RNS 27/4 NHS 1million tests a month x 6m from may > oct = £30m
RNS 29/4 £90m orders (+£72m)
RNS 03/6 £120m orders (+£30m)
RNS July ???
If NCYT can maintain say £30 - £50m per month to end of year then we get mid £40m x ~ 10 = £400m at say 40% margin to accommodate distribution agreements – gives £160m Pre Tax (probably loads of R&D tax credits) – then 70 shares = EPS of £2.28 at say 10 – 15 PE gives share price range £22 - £34 per share.
Its all down to maintaining the run rate / order rate.

A quick calculation - i give around £20 share price end of year.

Tests Year 90m
£ per Test 6
Revs 540
Margin 40%
PBT 216
NOSH 68
EPS 3.176470588
PE 10
£ 31.76470588
RISK 70%
Adj SH Pr 22.24

Hope you understand the shorthand - RISK is very subjective - as is PE - but until tests look out past say 3 years PE has to remain low or even very low.

Good Luck.

Charts make no sense for small cap AIM stocks - its news flow that makes the price. You may as well read a horoscope of cast a few runes on the kitchen floor. Charts only make sense when you have a huge market such as oil etc where the price is the collective wisdom of millions of transactions - AIM stocks can jump out of chart ranges on one news item - and in fact do almost daily across the piece.

If you are a new investor please dont accept any chart nonsense in AIM stocks - but read the RNS column to understand the business and take time to read trading updates, interim and final reports etc - the rest is voodoo - as is the nonsense that the Bulletin Board guy reads out - how many times have you heard them say this is in breakout based on a fib value of x or y - its nonsense and simply click bait for their advertising revenues - stick to the story in AIM stocks.

Rant finished. BT-UK

Maybe the human analogues escape and colonise the new trees creating a new species of mice that are susceptible to colds and flu every winter? Making the new forests dangerous to humans and thereby protecting the forests and solving global CO2 issues, increasing the oil price to $100 and finally making Tesla a De Lorian collectors item only seen at car shows and eBay auctions.

Could happen??

Head back the evolutionary tree about 60 million years ago and humans and mice had the same common ancestor, and we were all tree living night mammals. Tree rats basically.

Don't know what that will do for the share price.

Paddy - my wifes family have a farm in Nenagh - that really is a small world. They have the farm up the top of the hill past the cinema and the old monestary. I usually have lunch in Terryglass when we visit. See you there for a pint one day?

I was just typing the same question.

Don't know. I have just got up. But I can have a go at it later and post. It all depends on the longevity of the run rate and it's visibility. Then it's multiplied by risk. The risk discount has to be high because the risk is the cv19 goes away. Or a vaccine is highly effective.
Or it's not.
Let's say that in the future international air travel needs a test 48 hours pre flight. Good valuation. Say you need evidence of a vaccination but no test. Bad valuation. Does the business lay one golden egg, or regular ones?

I disagree. As the sales and earnings can't be expected to maintain for more than say 18 months the traditional pe ratio is not applicable. The valuation needs to be made on a Discounted Cash Flow basis. So it's the sum of all cash flow through the business. Any buyout will be done on this basis, if there is one.