Member Info for bluetigeruk

All shareholders will lose all their money - including me - the bonds will reclaim whatever they can as they now own the assets and the assets are in administration to protect from creditors.

Shareholders rank last in the list so we wont receive anything, not a chance.

Even if the company relists again it will be with a fresh capital table and different equity, so write it off.

Everyone said David Lenigas was dodgy but i though he was running a decent strategy - its only the corporate finance team that really know the picture.

£5k i will never see again.

Thanks Blue

I will add to my comment earlier - you will know when this is over because in very thin markets like these its easy to organise a bear raid. So take the NOVA price down to say 250p or even 200p - then buy whatever falls out of the market as a result, then the shareprice will rise again. If i was a trader i would do this at the then end of Aug or start of September, ready for some price moves Oct to Dec. So its just a guess from me - but dont be surprised to see a Bair Raid and then grab some shares at that point. Thanks Blue

Share price eroded daily.

I will give you one very good answer - its the summer - and most of the City is away on holiday. Market Makers get their risk positions (books) reduced by Risk Managers and especially true in illiquid AIM stocks. So the market is probably inefficient right now. If i want to sell say 25k shares in NOVA and the MM are running flat books then the trade goes into the market for a buyer - and if one doesn't jump up and take the offer then the market goes fishing - how - by lowering the price until a buyer is found - probably the people here on this forum saying that sub £3 is a bargain. Well it probably is IMO - but the MM dont care about the value of a business, its irrelevant - they match buyers and sellers - and given the direction of the market over the past 3 months any and all MM will be running a shortish book - so the fall in prices gives them a bit more book profit - so they really dont worry about the price drifting lower. Wait until mid September when decisions / trades are made again. Thanks Blue

I think its a bit more than £7.20 - more like £7.70 last time i asked. Also the Q16 machines are - i think about £250k for a machine and 6 months worth of tests - or they were 12 months back - i guess they can have moved on = down on pricing for the POC analyser machines. The NHS got the lowest price point - private contractors a slightly higher one.

If i was running a testing set up in Heathrow i would match the machines to demand - so probably a mix of the smaller Q16 models running 14 tests every 25 minutes and one larger lab type machine doing sets of 32 > 96 at a time.

As for the valuation - using very rounded numbers - if we say £100m in cash and a business with £50m PTP then a PE of 10x should give a £600m valuation which is around £9 a share i believe.

So buying at £3 is value investing.

Thanks Blue

Looks like buying ahead of update.
It COULD be that Novacyt is booking meetings with institutions after next announcement - the brokers are on the phone arranging a video update once results are released. MM hear of this and off we go. Institutions ask how's it going ?? and the brokers say, "we cant be specific about details, but we still support the business case (wink)"

Thats how it works. Market buys into the update a bit and suddenly the market is short and prices start to rise.

FOMO = Nervous Site

Premiums at TO are usually around 30 40% - not 300% - that would be a massive premium - and therefore is very unlikely.

Thanks Blue

One note to add. If you do want to deal in size or try your luck on price then ring your broker and ask for a dealer to speak to the market for you - its literally their job to talk to the market on the phone and wither get a price in size - say 25,000 shares or simply haggle a bit - i can offer xx instead of yy . Dealers know the MM quite well, drink beers after work with them and if the market is not fast they generally will improve on your standard algo prices - plus human MM can make their own decisions - whereas Algo trades are simply 3 or 4 what if statements running on a server. Thanks Blue

Hill Seeker - its an AIM stock and post 2 x trading updates and pre annual profit announcement so i would imagine risk managers at the MM are basically setting the volume knob to 1 and waiting for the risk to clear - a stock with this volatility over the last 12 months is going to have red flags all over it and the risk team wont let the MM take much of a position either way.
Thanks Blue

Bill the placing is handled by the brokers - they dont want to eff about with Private Investors - its time consuming and has compliance issues. PIs dont count at all in the city - you / we are just fodder. Dont average down now - youwill be killed by an upcoming capital restructure an lose twice over. Thanks Blue

The alternative is Debt. There are quite a few specialist funds that loan to technology businesses, BUT, they take lien over the IP. If you miss your payments then they take the IP out of the business and leave behind the winding up mess to the Board. Its clever because that can cost quite a lot to do. Its then a high stakes game when you start to borrow against the family silver. Thanks Blue

Whoever the next Mint Capital is will not give the old Mint a free ride - they will definitely knock out Mint's shares using a capital restructure and that will affect all current ordinary shareholders - you, me, us. The rot has not stopped - its just starting - believe me - its the playbook for any professional investor coming in with new money. Thanks Blue

I bought £5k of these as a long term gamble at 8p- buy - ignore - then in 5 years maybe its worth a lot or zero. Its gone to zero pretty fast but that was always a risk. The capital table is wrecked, the business cant recover from this - yes it can attract new capital on strong results but that will require a raise and a capital restructure. If i was in the next raise i would consolidate at say 100:1 making the shareprice £1.00 and then kill off the current shareholders with a 5:1 new round of equity making us bagholders 1p shares today worth about 0.2p after. Thats the way it works - i would really not top up into this price fall. Thanks BLue

No its like this.

The underwriters get paid a fee to underwrite the placing - they then place the new shares with their clients - if the placing is oversubscribed they can come back for more shares but these are not underwritten they are just new bonus shares - the underwriters dont care if the share price goes up in the future - their job is to wholesale big blocks of shares out to the market and not get caught with any shares left on their books at the end of the sales process as they then have to own them as they are underwritten.

If the company is strong then underwriting is money for old rope - well new rope in fact - but its an easy fee.

Dont assume that brokers, MM, corporate finance banks care if the SP rises or not, they really dont, they care about their bonuses / commissions, their spread, their fees and their clients in that order and in fact private investors nobody cares about at all unless you can help with the previous list in a significant way.

I worked in investment banking - its the truth.

RB

JAMBO

This is not how MM work.

They don accumulate huge positions in AIM stocks over weeks hoping to sell it into a rise, thats the job for investors.

They simply execute trades.

A MM would not be able to carry a large AIM position - the risk is too high.

All the MM want is an active market - buyers and sellers each way with good deal flow through their book.

Honestly a MM would not care if the share price never moved a single penny as long as they put say £10m through the book at 1/2p net per share trade every day - £10m / 20p x 1/2p = £250k shared across the MM each day. Perfect and easy money.

Investors buy and hold - a fund may buy and hedge (say vs Gold Price) - a few traders may try and trade the momentum but not many.

The whole gold sector in a bit of a dull plateau at the moment - it will have its day again when gold crosses $2000 and the sector attracts money again.

GGP has a great asset and at 20p its got very little medium term downside - maybe none at all.

Its got at least 100% upside.

Its a perfect asynchronous risk investment.

Buy them!

Thanks Blue

Most BTC is mined in China and a lot held there as well. Given it takes a lot of energy to run processors to mine it - plus China has no oil to speak of - why do the authorities allow this to happen?

I speculate that BTC mining is managed at scale by CCP and that at some point the US will challenge this situation, plus the obviously non declaration of capital gains by people holding BTC an its very clear use by organised crime too as a money laundering device.

As the large financial institutions set up trading and investment desks into BTC - it then becomes an 'asset' under the financial services legal umbrella - and the usual declarations are required.

FYI i hold 2500 ARGO but i think the downside could be severe in BTC and related if US etc starts to treat it like any other financial instrument.

Thanks Blue

Building a shareholding external to reporting rules is very illegal. Different groups can subscribe their shares / votes as A CONCERT PARTY in the Stock Exchange rules - but this needs to be declared within 2 days i think ??? Cant remember - took the exams too long ago.

Thanks Blue

Its not manipulation - its because there is a. a seller in size in the market looking for offers b. there is very low volume so the market drops the price to encourage in new buyers .

If the share price jumped 20% today you would say - oh the MM are manipulating the SP by selling shares higher than they bought them for would you? The share price normally falls without a news item because there are more sellers than buyers. The market only records trades done - it does not show if dealers are offering to the market in size.

Thanks Blue

I expect this to rally to £20 not just £10.

Yes JohnZ - asynchronous R vs R is what you should put real money into - and then do the 50 vs 50 stuff for fun.

US OTC Ticker is ARBKF