Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
My target is between £22 ish and £75 a share range, depending on longivety of revenue. Then we rerate to 15 times PE if it's enough. Not this year obvs, but say within 36 months. Flu hit Europe in 1918 to 1921, we still test for it and vaccinate every year 100 years later. Covid is a virus with very similar morphology and environment to flu and the cold too. Why do traders think it is going to disappear as soon as a vaccine is produced. It will no doubt mutate around the anti virals. And testing for anything with pandemic potential will remain scaled up for a long time. Get some while they are cheap. Good luck.
Not in my opinion. They should use the extraordinary lucky distribution network they have been gifted and create a wide platform of tests that can be applicable across an array of virus types, plus focus on the POCT product range so that they become a defacto airport / school / sports club / etc testing method. Show solid earnings across several classes of tests and then the PE ratio will re-rate significantly.
Give that strategy 2 - 3 years and they can then be bought out for $5-10bn as well by a global pharma.
I bought at £1.15 - i want a 30 - 40 bagger from there.
Not a 5 x.
RNS 16-07
This facility will allow NQ to repay Hellyer’s early project debt, reducing the mine’s interest expense by around USD 2.5 million per year - this adds well to the bottom line and makes more funding available for new mine operations.
ALS) note ... going for a proper listing - i would guess on London Mining sector.
On drawdown, the Company’s balance sheet will be significantly strengthened, and work will commence to seek a listing on a Tier-1 stock exchange to complement its current London Aquis Exchange listing and OTC Markets trading platforms.”
Whats uninformed about it - it is mainly based on RNS announcements made over the past few months.
Which part is uninformed please?
Thank you.
Its an AIM stock without a Dividend Policy so the board have no requirement to pay a dividend - and i wouldn't hold onto fast growing AIM stocks expecting large cash returns - its simply not that part of the market. If the board can get a return on capital employed above that of the money markets then they are adding shareholder value. I will be happy if they get that run rate up to £40m a month and get it to stick there - then there will be a very significant re-rating and a dividend will be insignificant.
Run Rate #3
Its all down to the run rate and how stable it is / or is not.
RNS 27/3 £18m orders
RNS 27/4 NHS 1million tests a month x 6m from may > oct = £30m
RNS 29/4 £90m orders (+£72m)
RNS 03/6 £120m orders (+£30m)
RNS 13/7 £ New Orders ??? June sales + £22m
So the above shows sales to end June of £63 million - with orders announced of £120m to end May - so about half fulfilled - not counting new orders in June 2020 - which were not announced.
2 new products just launched + new distribution in USA so we need to guess - lets say new POC product needs a 2 month ramp and distribution starts mid June on - hence June sales will be lower than July > Dec - plus RNS gives this indication.
Novacyt Run Rate is then back into the range £40m - £50 pcm until end of year because ordered but not fulfilled sales of £5m a month still to go plus June £22m and add in new POC products plus US Distributor sales.
So pick £40m pcm as the sales target - we get:
Jan - June TO £63m and EBITDA £41m (margin 65%)
July - Dec TO £40m x 6 = £240m (margin 50%) gives EBITDA £120m
PTP = £41m + £120m ~ £160m / NOSH = 71m = EPS £2.25 at 10x PE (Aim + Risk) = £22.50 per share
Good Luck.
We need some proper results from drilling to shift the SP on in any significant way, but the potential sounds good. I guess there will be a placing soonish - say October to support any more exploration work. Looking as some other junior exp plays in Australia any reasonable drilling results puts the market cap into the A$20m zone - which is say 28p per share here - so I would guess thats the target by October - 20 something share price via some encouraging results and then a cash raise to fund the next 12-18 months. I am just guessing by the way. Good Luck.
Or they are desperately trying to find something to report that is +ve to the market to justify the current share price move - just putting the counterfactual out there/
Any info on who the constant and large seller is in the market?? And what position size is being cleared out. Is there an underwriter holding leftover placing or something?
If I was FD of Novacyt i would prepare a monthly sales update last Monday of the month - and a trading update 6-8 weeks after each VAT Quater, then occasional RNS reports as large contracts etc are signed under AIM rules for price significant announcements.
I think it would clear up the market need for constant sugar rush news - just have a clear and consistent pattern to it - which is what larger companies do of course.
Good Luck.
Well he hasn't told me to sell yet !
I got into GGP based on a family member who is a geologist working in Tasmania on a gold prospect there. On our annual Christmas catch up call he said its time to buy GGP. Thanks uncle.
Sorry i should have added Page 13 when you follow the URL link
https://t.co/HViRUNisFA?amp=1
The Scallywag prospect has 4 x targets for 2020 - below BLACKBEARD - South South East there is a huge magnetic anomoly - do we have any information on that yet & any ideas why it is not a suitable drill target?
Thanks all - BT-UK
Hollywood (Paul??) - its probably not patented yet - its most likely a Patent Pending which gives the business / inventor / 12-18 months to exploit and then register the full patent if there is something novel to protect.
RUN RATE
Hi i posted this a few days back and will update with each Business Update from NCYT. Just for a bit of technical financial theory - the value of a business is 'calculated' as the present value of expected future cash flows and then discounted vs cost of money and risk back to present value.
In the case of NCYT its future cash flows are unproven and therefore with a high risk multiplier - hence the low share price currently - but each month they deliver repeat sales and then sales growth the risk factor reduces and the future cash flows increase along with the valuation.
The big risk here is that the new orders and re-orders suddenly tail off - but i dont see this personally as they have WHO authority and are selling globally with some big distributors representing them. Hence why i am invested. The day to day share price moves are magnified in a thin market in AIM - buys cause 10% + jumps and sells similar falls - it seems to me the past few days the market (makers) are dropping the price down until then find a bid - so they can create some order flow - so i wouldn't worry too much - once buying returns they will be jumping the price up trying to encourage sellers - its their job to do this.
Run Rate
Its all down to the run rate and how stable it is – or is not.
RNS 27/3 £18m orders
RNS 27/4 NHS 1million tests a month x 6m from may > oct = £30m
RNS 29/4 £90m orders (+£72m)
RNS 03/6 £120m orders (+£30m)
RNS July ???
If NCYT can maintain say £30 - £50m per month to end of year then we get mid £40m x ~ 10 = £400m at say 40% margin to accommodate distribution agreements – gives £160m Pre Tax (probably loads of R&D tax credits) – then 70 shares = EPS of £2.28 at say 10 – 15 PE gives share price range £22 - £34 per share.
Its all down to maintaining the run rate / order rate.
Maybe just shoot them Jimboo.
Would slow any transmission rate.
I worked for an NHS pathology IT Comms group. Once an item is listed it more or less automatically reorders. Once a product line is established and is tested by the path robots and Comms reported, the product line remains listed for a long time, unless it has quality or supply issues. Look at Thermo as a strong example. They can Guarantee sales,more or less.
Nova can get into the same groove with its WHO related sales. One question. Anyone know the shelf life of the assays? Vs Reliability. Some have quite short reorder dates.
Run Rate
Its all down to the run rate and how stable it is – or is not.
RNS 27/3 £18m orders
RNS 27/4 NHS 1million tests a month x 6m from may > oct = £30m
RNS 29/4 £90m orders (+£72m)
RNS 03/6 £120m orders (+£30m)
RNS July ???
If NCYT can maintain say £30 - £50m per month to end of year then we get mid £40m x ~ 10 = £400m at say 40% margin to accommodate distribution agreements – gives £160m Pre Tax (probably loads of R&D tax credits) – then 70 shares = EPS of £2.28 at say 10 – 15 PE gives share price range £22 - £34 per share.
Its all down to maintaining the run rate / order rate.
A quick calculation - i give around £20 share price end of year.
Tests Year 90m
£ per Test 6
Revs 540
Margin 40%
PBT 216
NOSH 68
EPS 3.176470588
PE 10
£ 31.76470588
RISK 70%
Adj SH Pr 22.24
Hope you understand the shorthand - RISK is very subjective - as is PE - but until tests look out past say 3 years PE has to remain low or even very low.
Good Luck.