Member Info for bluetigeruk

WASRED -

x y z are not secretly accumulating - thats called acting in concert and is an illegal activity
if x y z were secretly accumulating they would have to declare their interest at between 1% and 3% - 1% if a takeover offer was on the horizon
any significant shareholder will be on the register of shares and will be tracked by the company's brokers and the company secretary / financial director

the share price has fallen because - the price was ahead of the story - lots of ground but deep under ground with 4 years to get it to the surface - its AIM - hugely more volatile and illiquid than main markets - markets are falling so MM risk managers reduce their trading / risk books - first thing you sell in a downturn is all small companies - AIM is the #1 in the UK - ask any broker - dont fight the FED

I have a holding in GGP bought ages ago and i am just ignoring it until gold gets processed and turned into $$$ - then the stock will be revalued due to cashflow and probably relisted on a main market in UK and AUS. Worry about the price then.

Thanks Blue

In the loger term good steady results + div + growth and it doesn't matter the short position in the company the business will increase in value - short term trading is loaded against PIs - you don't have the news flow or data the professionals have - play the medium to longer game for success. - 3 months holdings then review each holding every 6 weeks - its portfolio management.

Hi PI - no - but to be honest one comment on a board like ADFN or LSE does not ramp a share - buyers ramp a share.

Two different opinions make a market my friend - one creates a buyer the other a seller - thats how it works.

Thanks Blue

With £1.42 of cash on the balance sheet its hard to see how the market will take this any further downhill unless of course DHSC gets full recourse in the litigation. If 2022 gets revenues of 40m at say 35% thats a profit of £14m so value that part of the business at PE8 gives £112m + cash = £100m ~ 200m or around £2.80 per share as value - ex the successful litigation as an outcome. Take £40m out for unsuccessful - gives a range of £2.30-£2.80 for the business currently i feel. I was hoping for 10x that 12 months back. Am I Cathy Wood?
Thanks Blue

Good letter - but this is a contract dispute - and if we get the favourable outcome then there follows a damages claim to DHSC for loss due to reputation / shareprice etc.

Also how about a class action from NOVA shareholders against DHSC for losses sustained?

I am sure there are a few litigation lawyers on here that could comment - thanks Blue

Charts!
You dont need technical analysis to tell you this business is in big trouble, just look at the shareprice and read the last 3 or 4 RNS statements.
Its like reading your horoscope on the way to hospital after being hit by a bus.
Charts only really work for commodities / currencies etc - certainly not AIM stocks.

Thanks Blue

I dont think a DHSC settlement will make a great deal to the share price - would probably add £1 a share or that range.
What NOVA needs is to show they have visibility of revenues into next year 2023/24 and that sales are not spiralling down.

To give the shares a rating (PE) etc of greater than 2 or 3 the market needs to know that earnings can be repeated forwards for greater than 2 to 3 years, once that hurdle is crossed then the stock can rerate from £3 to £9 very easily.

And make everyone here happy.

Thanks Blue

The problem with very wide patents is that you have to be ready to defend them - large biotechs will challenge these in court cases and drain out the resources of the originator. Its a standard business practice - wide patents attract legal attacks.
On the upside - it does allow Hemo to then create licences for biotechs to use the technology in a paid for and legal way.

Thanks Blue

Kind of - my wife had cancer 4 years ago - so he gets to see her GP if she gets a temperature etc within a few hours or next morning as she has priority still. Pregnant mothers too, anyone who faints, people with registered heart conditions and so on - its people like me that ring in with a minor ailment that get the 7-10 day appointments.

I think the word chaos has been very over used recently. You shouldn't really attend A&E unless you do actually need urgent care - its in the name.

I dont see why the BP board dont place their Russian Assets in Trust - with dividends donated to Ukraine - and then decide on actions once the smoke (literally) has cleared a bit. In fact all Western oils could do that and create a regeneration fund for Ukraine - and then once the outcome of this is is clear then make a business decision.

Thanks Blue

It takes at least 6 months to target and acquire another business - often much longer - so making statements that the new leadership should have spent some £££ to date is nonsense. The business needs better distribution and sales channels. Focus on that strategy first with a large bank roll to protect what's left of the share price. Thanks Blue

Correct Hollomatronic - this is the most useful thing i ever learnt when doing a masters in statistical modelling - our professor - Roger Tarling said after one session where we were predicting stuff from data and making forward looking predictions with confidence - he said "Remember that Humans Cannot predict the future" - so every bit of analysis and data and evaluation is only relevant until the last data point - after that its not analysis any more its just guesswork based on previous trends and patterns.

Zak Mir knows nothing about the future price of any shares any more than my dog does.

There are several 'competitions' around New Year every year where professional fund managers take on taxi drivers, personalities, various animals and even a cow that selects by pooing onto a stock selection matrix - the fund managers never come out on top.

Thanks Blue

Brokers DCF at last asset reveal was 24p, so that's a good line in the sand. Who is more expert at valuation than a professional mining analyst?

Then there is asset upgrade coming soon, plus general openess vs proveness.

So if I was SD I would be putting 32 pence out there.

That's my guesstimate.

Thanks Blue

I don't see a takeover unless it's agreed between GGP and Newcrest.

And I definitely don't see any third party either. They can't bid as the symbiosis better the two is so high. A bid from anyone else would just act as a stalking horse for Newcrest and so third party would always lose and it would cost them their corporate finance fees which for a £750 bid would cost say ... £20 million.

So there's no takeover around unless it's agreed and that won't happen for 5 years yet until the area has been fully explored and valued.

Thanks Blue

So they have sold stuff but cant take payment (revenue) on it because its not been delivered or made?
If i order goods and they get delayed i tend to cancel.
If they are prezzies then almost certainly i cancel the order.
I am watching this share but i dont think its time to jump in yet.
Profit warnings come in 3s we used to say in the City.
Lets see what they say in January.
Thanks Blue

Buy out - there may be an MoU in place to not allow any buy out that is not agreed by the GGP board - OK if another party bids then all bets are off - but that wont happen anyway as the farm in exclude that - plus the proximity of Telfer. So there is no rush for either side to agree a buy out until what the asset is is clear - that's maybe 5 years away? Guess.
Even if GGP discover another HAV in another target - where is it going for processing etc? Telfer i think, so the two companies are bound together now. That's my opinion - when will the price be good - i don't know - but it will be good sometime in the future 1-2 years i think. Don't trade GGP - its a bottom draw stock now.
I bought at 3, 7, 12 and 20p.
Thanks Blue

Yes i guess if they announce a long term agreement to buy in local Indian coal at a decent price then thats the point to load up because the very variable costs of coal are then understood.

Thats the most detailed Interim Report i have ever seen published. Congrats to the FD. Nothing to hide half year report. Its the type of business where you need a 5% divi nailed on every year to buy and hold really. I wondered what the software licences are they have to buy - is this the stuff you need to run a power station and enter the electricity into the grid ?? cant be Office 365.

Its not just the price of ORE its the demand for ORE - mainly from China - plus the cost of mining and shipping - both up - much of this is linked to Chinese construction activity and that is linked to Bank loans to property and that is very influenced by Chinese political investment policy and banking liquidity.

Chinese Steel production is key.

FORBES ...
The hits keep on coming for China’s economy.
This time the news is the country’s already beleaguered real estate sector is set for more bad news.
“Property activities are likely to fall further in the coming quarters, and without policy easing, property sales and starts could fall 20% or more by 2022,” states a recent report from Swiss bank UBS.