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Brokers DCF at last asset reveal was 24p, so that's a good line in the sand. Who is more expert at valuation than a professional mining analyst?
Then there is asset upgrade coming soon, plus general openess vs proveness.
So if I was SD I would be putting 32 pence out there.
That's my guesstimate.
Thanks Blue
I don't see a takeover unless it's agreed between GGP and Newcrest.
And I definitely don't see any third party either. They can't bid as the symbiosis better the two is so high. A bid from anyone else would just act as a stalking horse for Newcrest and so third party would always lose and it would cost them their corporate finance fees which for a £750 bid would cost say ... £20 million.
So there's no takeover around unless it's agreed and that won't happen for 5 years yet until the area has been fully explored and valued.
Thanks Blue
So they have sold stuff but cant take payment (revenue) on it because its not been delivered or made?
If i order goods and they get delayed i tend to cancel.
If they are prezzies then almost certainly i cancel the order.
I am watching this share but i dont think its time to jump in yet.
Profit warnings come in 3s we used to say in the City.
Lets see what they say in January.
Thanks Blue
Buy out - there may be an MoU in place to not allow any buy out that is not agreed by the GGP board - OK if another party bids then all bets are off - but that wont happen anyway as the farm in exclude that - plus the proximity of Telfer. So there is no rush for either side to agree a buy out until what the asset is is clear - that's maybe 5 years away? Guess.
Even if GGP discover another HAV in another target - where is it going for processing etc? Telfer i think, so the two companies are bound together now. That's my opinion - when will the price be good - i don't know - but it will be good sometime in the future 1-2 years i think. Don't trade GGP - its a bottom draw stock now.
I bought at 3, 7, 12 and 20p.
Thanks Blue
Yes i guess if they announce a long term agreement to buy in local Indian coal at a decent price then thats the point to load up because the very variable costs of coal are then understood.
Thats the most detailed Interim Report i have ever seen published. Congrats to the FD. Nothing to hide half year report. Its the type of business where you need a 5% divi nailed on every year to buy and hold really. I wondered what the software licences are they have to buy - is this the stuff you need to run a power station and enter the electricity into the grid ?? cant be Office 365.
Its not just the price of ORE its the demand for ORE - mainly from China - plus the cost of mining and shipping - both up - much of this is linked to Chinese construction activity and that is linked to Bank loans to property and that is very influenced by Chinese political investment policy and banking liquidity.
Chinese Steel production is key.
FORBES ...
The hits keep on coming for China’s economy.
This time the news is the country’s already beleaguered real estate sector is set for more bad news.
“Property activities are likely to fall further in the coming quarters, and without policy easing, property sales and starts could fall 20% or more by 2022,” states a recent report from Swiss bank UBS.
Being lazy - does anyone know if the new equity has a lock in?
Thanks Blue
How many colds have humans had over the past 500 years?
1. Maybe - but shares in a placing can be increased very easily its just a few phone calls from the Lead Broker and everyone is happy when that happens.
2. I don't believe this shorts trope - gangs of short sellers don't work together to reduce the share price for PIs and that's what the cap table mainly consists of. Anyway - nobody shorts AIM stocks heavily - except for a few famous 'Cardwell' etc's as there is no options chain to protect against big moves. Why would a shorter hold a position in GGP right now with say 4p maximum downside and maybe 20p up on a drilling strike - its asynchronous risk that no trader would take on.
Why would someone be accumulating shares a week after a placing at 14.5p ?? Makes no sense - they would accumulate a position from the lead brokers.
I doubt it - retail brokers dont work like that.
Its probably an accumulation of the MM running their books out as they know that a placing will refill at 14.5p plus various spread bet/CFD balancing trades. A long trade - say in GGP via a CFD will be hedged by the dealer entering the trade - and you will be charged spread plus interest to keep it open. So short interest can simply be long hedge.
Thanks Blue
I have a flu jab every year in November due to virus shift.
Its not a big deal - takes about 10 mins at my local pharmacy.
Thanks Blue
Redundancy - not much if they took them on last year - probably statutory plus one month - so pretty low cost really.
Its definitely possible they could be placed into administration if they don't get the funding arranged. They wont be liquidated - but the equity holders (us!) will be wiped out. Finance rearranged and then probably sold to a bigger group, or listed again with fresh capital table. That's how it works, run out of money, bondholfders and senior debt take lien.
Thanks Blue
Mmmm its a funny announcement to make - nothing statutory about saying you are close to signing a financing deal - why put that out there.
There must be rumours that they can get the financing in place and they are trying to cut off that noise before it gets too loud. What does close mean anyway - its very non specific language - i bet / guess the news from China has changed the risk multiplier in the funding proposal and it now does not sit in the correct finance 'zone' or its borderline - hence its close. Do you want to lend money to a business when its principle asset is copper and the price is down 20% ? This is speculation by the way - just thinking aloud. Thanks Blue
Dont hang any hope on the contract. Its clearly been drafted poorly or this dispute would not have dragged on so far because the DHSC legal team would have reviewed it and said pay up . There is definitely an issue with the contract that gives the DHSC cause to not pay. Thanks Blue
REMUNERATION
The new boss is probably remunerated based on the share / top line / bottom line performance over his term. Its very usual for an incoming new boss to throw any bad news out there ASAP to get a nice low entry point and also a very clean ship to take over. I would think his contract has certain warranties that the business must provide ahead of taking on the business - unresolved disputes would definitely be on the list.
So yes this is partly about cleaning up the contract dispute by removing sales from the accounts and making exceptionals - but its also about setting the bar at a low point for the new CEO to work from.
In my opinion - Thanks Blue
FEVER
I have just posted this to an investor on the PURE GOLD board.
Thanks Blue
TREK.
If you dont like it you should write to the LSX.
Listing requirements as that information is timely and accurate. If you dont feel their RNS are accurate etc then tell the LSX. Also write to their brokers as advisors and copy the board too. Be an active investor. Ranting on these boards doesn't make any difference - go down the correct channels and you will have a small effect. Lead several maybe 10s of investors here to do the same and you will have some impact. Not much, but a bit.
Read RED NOTICE if you want to learn about shareholder activism! and where it can get you.
Thanks BLUE
... An issuer should reasonably satisfy itself that all information provided by it to the Exchange is correct, complete and not misleading and, if it comes to the subsequent attention of the issuer that the information provided does not meet this requirement, the issuer should advise the Exchange as soon as practicable.
TREK.
If you dont like it you should write to the LSX.
Listing requirements as that information is timely and accurate. If you dont feel their RNS are accurate etc then tell the LSX. Also write to their brokers as advisors and copy the board too. Be an active investor. Ranting on these boards doesn't make any difference - go down the correct channels and you will have a small effect. Lead several maybe 10s of investors here to do the same and you will have some impact. Not much, but a bit.
Read RED NOTICE if you want to learn about shareholder activism! and where it can get you.
Thanks BLUE
... An issuer should reasonably satisfy itself that all information provided by it to the Exchange is correct, complete and not misleading and, if it comes to the subsequent attention of the issuer that the information provided does not meet this requirement, the issuer should advise the Exchange as soon as practicable.