RE: "Things are starting to look very serious" - Napoleon to General Caulaincourt during 1812 invasion of Russia4 Sep 2025 09:26
30 year bonds look high but TBH they are a minor instrument in the UK because we dont write 30 year mortgages - life policies yes, plus BoE is selling them from its covid balance sheet. But the 2-5 is where to watch for pain - because thats were a lot of the ZIRP money is being rolled out of and back into and thats also where the UK mortgage market sits. What i mean is a 25bps rise in the 30 does not really have much real effect - but the same in the 2s > 5s has a huge impact on Gov debt payments, mortgages, corporate debt etc. So dont watch the 30s, watch the 3s. // Thanks Blue