The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I have invested since around 3p in Greatlands GGP and having a JV agreement with a big cap miner has saved them - the problem with PALM is that if they hit something tasty at say 400m - then what? There is probably not enough information on a couple of holes to base any resource estimates and attract a JV etc ... so PALM needs to then drill out a decent sample of say 20 - 30 holes in all directions to validate and expand. That costs say 5 x the current balance sheet, so PALM will come back to shareholders and issue another one or two rounds of equity + warrants which is dilution. So success with the drill means more shares issued and probably more warrants hanging around and probably downwards pressure on the share price for at least 2 - 3 years until a JV is agreed in some format to recover the exploration costs and define the asset value. This is what i have learned the expensive way being invested in GGP and two small Auzzie miners over the last 3 years.
So my new wisdom is dabble a small bit when they are exploring - its fun and exciting - then as soon as something has been found and the share price has a bump, sell - then wait until cash raise 2 or something when the price is weak and warrants converting (maybe) assuming the price justifies warrant conversion - and then look to buy in again.
GGP is exactly in this pattern - even with a very good JV partner and having a massive gold / resource find thats still expanding, plus exploration areas all over the hottest gold zone in the world today.
Good luck PALM investors - i am watching - but not buying in currently.
Thanks Blue
What the chart tells you is that the business is nearly bust - it has restructured its payments to its biggest lender at 14% and kicked them down the line to 2026 - but thats a big interest rate to pay and if it defaults then Sprott takes over in an insolvency agreement - issues some capital for equity on really bad terms to current bagholders - sorry shareholders - and then makes the business and cashflow good - assuming the gold is in there at the correct levels - and then they IPO back onto the Canadian market in 2030. Thats my guess - thanks Blue
Each new company will declare a dividend policy - so the distribution will be pretty clear - then divide that by the NOSH (number of shares) and you get the div p/sh estimate.
Thanks Blue
Yes - look at it this way.
You own 500 GSK shares at £10 - you have £5,000 in value.
Shares are consoludated.
You now have 400 GSK.new shares - they represent the same business, so they trade as £12.50 = £5,000
GSK.old is chopped into more pieces (shares) than GSK.new so the slices are a bit richer - but you have less of them.
Thanks Blue
MADE should make some of its furniture in the UK because it would then not suffer from such delays - plus it would support UK artisans - they could also source in Denmark, Italy etc and have a really cool European showcase.
Thanks Blue
You dont understand what has happened - the shares are up because of maths - its a 4 for 5 consolidation - so there are now 20% fewer shares in issue and so the market capitalisation is spread thicker - meaning the shares adjust by increasing 20%. The value of GSK has not increased. Just the number of shares that represent it.
Thanks Blue
Bought in at £1.12 and sold at £1.10 - possibly my worst managed trade / investment ever.
Good luck anyone remaining - my luck with this share it will probably triple in price now.
Thanks Blue
WASRED -
x y z are not secretly accumulating - thats called acting in concert and is an illegal activity
if x y z were secretly accumulating they would have to declare their interest at between 1% and 3% - 1% if a takeover offer was on the horizon
any significant shareholder will be on the register of shares and will be tracked by the company's brokers and the company secretary / financial director
the share price has fallen because - the price was ahead of the story - lots of ground but deep under ground with 4 years to get it to the surface - its AIM - hugely more volatile and illiquid than main markets - markets are falling so MM risk managers reduce their trading / risk books - first thing you sell in a downturn is all small companies - AIM is the #1 in the UK - ask any broker - dont fight the FED
I have a holding in GGP bought ages ago and i am just ignoring it until gold gets processed and turned into $$$ - then the stock will be revalued due to cashflow and probably relisted on a main market in UK and AUS. Worry about the price then.
Thanks Blue
In the loger term good steady results + div + growth and it doesn't matter the short position in the company the business will increase in value - short term trading is loaded against PIs - you don't have the news flow or data the professionals have - play the medium to longer game for success. - 3 months holdings then review each holding every 6 weeks - its portfolio management.
Hi PI - no - but to be honest one comment on a board like ADFN or LSE does not ramp a share - buyers ramp a share.
Two different opinions make a market my friend - one creates a buyer the other a seller - thats how it works.
Thanks Blue
With £1.42 of cash on the balance sheet its hard to see how the market will take this any further downhill unless of course DHSC gets full recourse in the litigation. If 2022 gets revenues of 40m at say 35% thats a profit of £14m so value that part of the business at PE8 gives £112m + cash = £100m ~ 200m or around £2.80 per share as value - ex the successful litigation as an outcome. Take £40m out for unsuccessful - gives a range of £2.30-£2.80 for the business currently i feel. I was hoping for 10x that 12 months back. Am I Cathy Wood?
Thanks Blue
Good letter - but this is a contract dispute - and if we get the favourable outcome then there follows a damages claim to DHSC for loss due to reputation / shareprice etc.
Also how about a class action from NOVA shareholders against DHSC for losses sustained?
I am sure there are a few litigation lawyers on here that could comment - thanks Blue
Charts!
You dont need technical analysis to tell you this business is in big trouble, just look at the shareprice and read the last 3 or 4 RNS statements.
Its like reading your horoscope on the way to hospital after being hit by a bus.
Charts only really work for commodities / currencies etc - certainly not AIM stocks.
Thanks Blue
I dont think a DHSC settlement will make a great deal to the share price - would probably add £1 a share or that range.
What NOVA needs is to show they have visibility of revenues into next year 2023/24 and that sales are not spiralling down.
To give the shares a rating (PE) etc of greater than 2 or 3 the market needs to know that earnings can be repeated forwards for greater than 2 to 3 years, once that hurdle is crossed then the stock can rerate from £3 to £9 very easily.
And make everyone here happy.
Thanks Blue
The problem with very wide patents is that you have to be ready to defend them - large biotechs will challenge these in court cases and drain out the resources of the originator. Its a standard business practice - wide patents attract legal attacks.
On the upside - it does allow Hemo to then create licences for biotechs to use the technology in a paid for and legal way.
Thanks Blue
Kind of - my wife had cancer 4 years ago - so he gets to see her GP if she gets a temperature etc within a few hours or next morning as she has priority still. Pregnant mothers too, anyone who faints, people with registered heart conditions and so on - its people like me that ring in with a minor ailment that get the 7-10 day appointments.
I think the word chaos has been very over used recently. You shouldn't really attend A&E unless you do actually need urgent care - its in the name.
I dont see why the BP board dont place their Russian Assets in Trust - with dividends donated to Ukraine - and then decide on actions once the smoke (literally) has cleared a bit. In fact all Western oils could do that and create a regeneration fund for Ukraine - and then once the outcome of this is is clear then make a business decision.
Thanks Blue
It takes at least 6 months to target and acquire another business - often much longer - so making statements that the new leadership should have spent some £££ to date is nonsense. The business needs better distribution and sales channels. Focus on that strategy first with a large bank roll to protect what's left of the share price. Thanks Blue
Correct Hollomatronic - this is the most useful thing i ever learnt when doing a masters in statistical modelling - our professor - Roger Tarling said after one session where we were predicting stuff from data and making forward looking predictions with confidence - he said "Remember that Humans Cannot predict the future" - so every bit of analysis and data and evaluation is only relevant until the last data point - after that its not analysis any more its just guesswork based on previous trends and patterns.
Zak Mir knows nothing about the future price of any shares any more than my dog does.
There are several 'competitions' around New Year every year where professional fund managers take on taxi drivers, personalities, various animals and even a cow that selects by pooing onto a stock selection matrix - the fund managers never come out on top.
Thanks Blue