Member Info for bluetigeruk

Anyway - relax - as long as the yield comes in at 9 / 10% a year - its all good.

Brent price is not the only factor in the shareprice - currency, market, oil futures - not the spot contract which does not mean much, share volume / flow direction, hedging strategies - long oil / short production for ex ... etc

Good post Stas..

Everyone is allowed to have their opinion - i know this is risky - im not buying Shell Oil for yield - its a punt - thats all. I dont have any agenda - im long £10k - its a few % of my total portfolio - lets see what happens.

The article - if you read the whole thing and dont just cherry pick one line - says that upto 12m barrels of oil could be lifted across 4 wells.

Derisk that to 8m and then guess that operations cost 20% and then the remaining 80% is taxed at 50% to the Gov. Leaving, 40% - drop in the transport costs - say $5 - and then multiply in the oil price at say $60 - gives ~ $20 to the business as profit of 160m over 2 - 3 years - being $50m a year. Given small production would probably get extended further - then it could flow more, or longer. Thats worth 5x the market cap alone each year - without the oil field asset valuation as it gets probable / proven. Risk is high / reward is high. My opinion // Thanks Blue

The other thing to be clear about is that oil in W Africa = corruption - so be clear that this is also almost certainly going on somewhere behind the scenes - which may cause a Mexican stand off as the rig gets nearer.

This summarises the situation well or not well - depending on what happens (pun intended)

https://africaoilgasreport.com/2025/06/oil-patch-sub-sahara/cameroons-thali-oil-block-drilling-delay-to-end-in-10th-year/

I am guessing that having an independent audit is a pre requirement for an incoming investor / or investment? Just guessing -

Sold about 3 weeks ago - typical boo hoo

Big incentive to drive down the price - pre share conversion in this i think - just here to discuss - im not invested but have been watching He1 for a few months - i am currently in Pulsar.

Fundraise

The Investors may elect to convert the £10 million Advance into ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company at any time and in any such proportion as they so choose upon delivery to the Company of a notice of conversion ("Conversion Notice"). The conversion price will be an amount equal to 80 per cent of the higher of: (i) the lowest single daily volume weighted average price ("VWAP") in respect of the Company's Ordinary Shares during the 10 trading days immediately preceding the date of the Conversion Notice; or (ii) 92.5 per cent of the VWAP for the 10 trading days immediately preceding the date of the Conversion Notice.

Im out for now. I only made ~ £2k, i was looking to hold into the £1 plus zone, but reading more as you do when you invest in a share im not so convinced. My reason - if it helps - from what i can see, there is not really an economic demand for green H2 - not at the prices that manufacturing green H2 currently cost. So no demand pull from the market for the fuel that is produced. I know there are lots of reasons why demand should increase and manufacturing expand, and yes ITM does the picks and shovels, not the gold mining - but my doubt is that the projects costed and where they are the procurement selected supplier - may be waiting on FID for a long time because there is no demand to trigger FID. Still on my watch list and I could be totally wrong - bu thats what makes a market! Hope this brain dump is useful to someone. Thanks Blue

Ive just sold my holding here - done very well - 2x my money - plus dividends probably 2.25 - its just a hunch - maybe some increased push back on vaping as an entry to smoking - big budget hot on smoking in general - i know that IMP is not a UK business - i would buy back in 15% lower at 2600.

This has been great - bought at 550 and now 730 - 30% in 3 months - amazing for a trust.

Seems to be finding a level now - thats my guess - anyone else involved here with an opinion?

Thanks Blue

Pulsar is a start-up.

It has delivered its exploration findings, but plans to move to become a producer.

This takes further exploration and then capital investment to move into production.

Raising money now from happy institutions / investors is exactly the right move.

The worst outcome is that the company runs down cash, hits borrowing and the market gets ahead of a placing and drives the price down into the low 20s and then the raise lands at say 12p.

They have done exactly the correct move in my opinion.

Pick a few up and average down if you feel the need.

Thanks Blue

Edd - oil needs to be lifted - whats the lift price - then take this from the market price - transport costs - then rerun the calculation. // Blue

Nothing wrong with people selling short - its what makes a market - might not match up against your investment thesis - if investors could not sell short then only the market makers would be able to do it for liquidity reasons - and then everyone would be barking about how it gives them a huge advantage (and they would be correct).

Spicy - you are correct to point out there is downside risk - its true - of course there is - this is a loss making business with a lot riding on FID from several projects - and its clear the green H market is just starting to emerge - but its not clear product prices yet support proper demand - these are science projects not full production demand - they are probably being funded by the need for big business to look green - so there is some clear greenwash in the investment case.

Will ITM grow to be a £1bn + market cap business ? I don't know - its worth a gamble at the moment for me because A. they don't need to raise cash B. they have a pipeline of projects that could start something - but there is clearly technology adoption risk and market demand for H risk out there.

Dont invest with one eye - look at both sides of the discussion and make your own decisions and dont berate people if their analysis does not confirm your analysis.

Thanks Blue

Ripley - i used to work as a Dealer years ago - so when the market is fast the autotrade platforms are restricted if the book gets too short - thats what has happened - you should be able to phone a human dealer (not autotrade) and get a price - its part of the stock exchange rules - market makers MUST give a two way price at a certain volume - they have to. Phone in and ask to speak to the dealer - they will get you a price. Thanks Blue

No1 - you could do that anyway the amount plasters are charging at the moment in London

Definitely will need to raise to get to MRE - but thats exactly how capital is deployed via shareholders into emergent exploration - the closer the asset gets to being an economical resource the easier and larger the fund raises. There is no guarantee - its highly speculative and risky - thats why its fun - buy National Grid or Legal and General if you want to invest in a safer space. I nearly wrote Lloyds Bank but they basically went bust and had a "funds raise" to survive!

Thanks Blue

The drilling is hitting the resource at ~ 500m currently - this is more or less the same depth as Greatland Hav resource.

Given its taken 4 years of top cover clearance and preparation to even get close to Hav - investors need to add this into their valuation of the resource as it emerges. Its fine saying there is $1bn of gold and copper down there - but if it costs $1.2bn to mine, fine and process it then its not an economic resource and stays underground.

I will do some calculations later but if anyone here is more informed than me, what type of resource needs to emerge to get a FID to mine this resource and release its value do you guess? How big wide / deep do we need to drill in an MRE to make this decision cross the no FID - yes FID line.

Thanks - Blue