Member Info for bluetigeruk

Spud that wasn't aimed at you - got the sarcasm.

I am quite disgusted by the comments about the accent of the CEO.
Do you really think your self-entitled snobbery has anything to do with making money or finding metal ores in the earths surface.
If you don't like the accent of the CEO, meaning, he sounds from a different social class structure than you, meaning people of lower socio-economic class should not be trusted - then either leave the shareholders register, or at the very least keep your opinions internalised.
Before you write these horrible opinions on public boards please repeat this 3 times over "Nobody likes a Bigot" before you press POST.

Institutional Broker will have a contract / agreement to provide one or two reports a year as part of the brokerage fee - for smaller companies. They wont commit resources to writing endless research updates to inform private investors. GGP can then pay for other reports if they want one done or if the Broker can see a report will make money - say Hav is confirmed and Scally hits - then they have something to take around to institutional fund managers - even then really it would need a placing or some corporate actions to make it attractive - and would usually include a few meetings and lunches to get enough business to justify the expense. Brokers are businesses.

Sampling shows around US$16m of gold in the tailings piles at Beaconsfield - not bad as the purchase cost of the whole site was (i think) AS$2.5m.

Yes Hydrogen - the correct analysis - 160m shares placed without any hit on the SP - so they were easily found a home for then crossed off market into the new holders. It shows the strength of the market for GGP. On the other side of the trade - having 160m shares in any small Cap share is risky because the door is tiny on the other side - try and get a price and size for 160m shares on HL! So if there is a bit of a wobble around funding / Newcrest / Scally and so on there wont be a bid in size. That said being a successful trader (not me) but people i worked with was always about getting in and out of the trade with a profit and keeping liquid - so well traded mate - 10p + on 160m shares is nice work.

in basic terms NPV means what is the money worth to me today as compared to its planned future cash flows.

You buy a flat and rent it for £1,000 a month for 5 years.

So that gives a cash flow of 1000 x 12 x 5 = 60000

But those receipts are in the future and not guarenteed - what if you had rented to someone who dies after 24 months, or who does a runner one night after 36 months?

So you have to attribiute risk to the cash flow.

10% of tennants dont get to the end of their agreement - so there is a 10% risk multiplier in there.

Also what if you just left your money in the bank (not really applicable today - this stuff was invented pre-QE Infinity)

If you get say 5% yield in the bank but only 3% on your rental then you are losing 2% vs the Discount Rate. So that mcash flow is costing you something.

Also throw inflation in there - 1,000 a month may look good now - but in 5 years it could be a terrible rental.

etc ...

So chuck all that in an equation and you calculate the real value of the money over its lifetime based on what it looks like today - PRESENT VALUE - minus risks etc hence NET.

Is it not possible to dissemble the TELFER kit and move and reassemble at HAV? at some point when a major Maintenance Programme is due?

Look up Return On Capital Employed if you want to understand why this is (sometimes) the case.

It's often a tax payment due that releases founders shares like this. Mortgages are hard to get for the over 50s too without a big deposit.

FX is wholly irrelevant for Gold - as gold is $$ traded globally and the gold price is a hedge against $$ et al currency debasement via gov debt - have you not been reading anything over this subject over the past 2 years? As the $$ changes in price it trades as a 'currency pair' against the Gold Weight - that is part of the attraction - Gold in Fungible into any currency you wish - but gold is not FIAT - whereas the $$ / most currencies are FIAT hence the relative attraction of gold vs FIAT currencies when they over-borrow - i.e. Now.

+VE - I'm in for the ride.

Funding and the resource could be a decent re-rate over the next 2 months esp with POG looking strong.

Who knows the future - Egypt may go to war with Ethiopia for that most essential resource - water.

Its a tiny market cap and very low number of trades / deal flow - so the MM probably has a tiny book limit say £50k or so - so any small orders hit the price in an exaggerated way - and they are fishing for trades too of course, trying to hit stops and entry points.

I have shown my workings previously - and it does depend on a share rerating to 15 x EBITDA - but who is to say that wont happen over the next year or so?

My target is between £22 ish and £75 a share range, depending on longivety of revenue. Then we rerate to 15 times PE if it's enough. Not this year obvs, but say within 36 months. Flu hit Europe in 1918 to 1921, we still test for it and vaccinate every year 100 years later. Covid is a virus with very similar morphology and environment to flu and the cold too. Why do traders think it is going to disappear as soon as a vaccine is produced. It will no doubt mutate around the anti virals. And testing for anything with pandemic potential will remain scaled up for a long time. Get some while they are cheap. Good luck.

Not in my opinion. They should use the extraordinary lucky distribution network they have been gifted and create a wide platform of tests that can be applicable across an array of virus types, plus focus on the POCT product range so that they become a defacto airport / school / sports club / etc testing method. Show solid earnings across several classes of tests and then the PE ratio will re-rate significantly.

Give that strategy 2 - 3 years and they can then be bought out for $5-10bn as well by a global pharma.

I bought at £1.15 - i want a 30 - 40 bagger from there.

Not a 5 x.

RNS 16-07

This facility will allow NQ to repay Hellyer’s early project debt, reducing the mine’s interest expense by around USD 2.5 million per year - this adds well to the bottom line and makes more funding available for new mine operations.

ALS) note ... going for a proper listing - i would guess on London Mining sector.

On drawdown, the Company’s balance sheet will be significantly strengthened, and work will commence to seek a listing on a Tier-1 stock exchange to complement its current London Aquis Exchange listing and OTC Markets trading platforms.”

Whats uninformed about it - it is mainly based on RNS announcements made over the past few months.
Which part is uninformed please?
Thank you.

Its an AIM stock without a Dividend Policy so the board have no requirement to pay a dividend - and i wouldn't hold onto fast growing AIM stocks expecting large cash returns - its simply not that part of the market. If the board can get a return on capital employed above that of the money markets then they are adding shareholder value. I will be happy if they get that run rate up to £40m a month and get it to stick there - then there will be a very significant re-rating and a dividend will be insignificant.

Run Rate #3

Its all down to the run rate and how stable it is / or is not.

RNS 27/3 £18m orders
RNS 27/4 NHS 1million tests a month x 6m from may > oct = £30m
RNS 29/4 £90m orders (+£72m)
RNS 03/6 £120m orders (+£30m)
RNS 13/7 £ New Orders ??? June sales + £22m

So the above shows sales to end June of £63 million - with orders announced of £120m to end May - so about half fulfilled - not counting new orders in June 2020 - which were not announced.

2 new products just launched + new distribution in USA so we need to guess - lets say new POC product needs a 2 month ramp and distribution starts mid June on - hence June sales will be lower than July > Dec - plus RNS gives this indication.

Novacyt Run Rate is then back into the range £40m - £50 pcm until end of year because ordered but not fulfilled sales of £5m a month still to go plus June £22m and add in new POC products plus US Distributor sales.

So pick £40m pcm as the sales target - we get:

Jan - June TO £63m and EBITDA £41m (margin 65%)
July - Dec TO £40m x 6 = £240m (margin 50%) gives EBITDA £120m

PTP = £41m + £120m ~ £160m / NOSH = 71m = EPS £2.25 at 10x PE (Aim + Risk) = £22.50 per share

Good Luck.

We need some proper results from drilling to shift the SP on in any significant way, but the potential sounds good. I guess there will be a placing soonish - say October to support any more exploration work. Looking as some other junior exp plays in Australia any reasonable drilling results puts the market cap into the A$20m zone - which is say 28p per share here - so I would guess thats the target by October - 20 something share price via some encouraging results and then a cash raise to fund the next 12-18 months. I am just guessing by the way. Good Luck.