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Ok, I get accumulation potentially means less shares available and algo wars…but are more people trying to sell than to buy…because that’s what the SP trend suggests.
If so wtf is going on?
If not wtf is going on?
Doesn’t the stuff you’re referring to end up on the same network as other traffic (i.e. same cables, fibre, routers) and inevitably some of this won’t be BT. There are of course high level protocols in place between collaborating countries as data spans networks.
‘Someone’ certainly is saying what sensitive is. There will be reams of policy on this, determined by relative data owner and organisation.
Aren’t the primary security factors location and management of servers, and level of encryption of any data that leaves them? It’s this that would need ring fencing?
We often seem to come back to a conclusion that a takeover is a no go based on national security issues but surely an obligation or contract that ensures the ongoing integrity of the service BT provides (same people doing same thing in a ‘protected’ unit) could get round this.
Doing so would enable the ‘commercial’ element of openreach to operate similarly to other UK utilities and with BT as a less constrained service provider.
For all that, the SP continues to show absolutely no indication of expectation of imminent opportunity to make some money.
Good observations earlier Larry.
I don’t quite understand what you’re saying Aus. Absolutely agree SP should be driven by supply and demand. Where is the ‘negative sentiment leading to fewer shares available’ coming from (i.e. less supply that would increase SP).
Isn’t it rather a case of suppressed demand due to negative sentiment (based on for example, ‘the regulator will always squeeze you and a takeover will never be allowed’).
Yes and yes.
The current SP has to be viewed as creating a compelling take-over opportunity and drahi has manouvered himself into a strong pole position to do so.
I just think the market don’t believe the government will allow an ‘un-restricted’ sale, with ongoing intervention and the constraints it creates being a primary factor in the SP being surpressed in the first place.
Exactly. And has played a long game to build a position, seeking to hold price down along the way. The reality is a ‘free and focussed’ BT has massive opportunity for growth and that’s what he’s after.
However…the market doesn’t seem to be buying into the prospect.
The government couldn’t reasonably restrict him unless there was clear evidence of ‘unavoidable’ national security risk…and a situation where he would have sufficient controls to be able to implement a change that would create such a risk.
I don’t believe he would have this at 29.5% and even if he was in an alliance that took it over 50% I think the government would retain the facility to step in to block any specific actions that they considered constituted creating such a risk.
What I would question is why would he invest to that level if doing so didn’t come with meaningful control and influence within the business?
To be clear Rodders, I'm certainly not encouraging you to tone it down and sit on the fence. It's your random rants and comedy abuse that I turn to when the women's football's on the TV.
That aside, so what's going to happen and when with this drahi/DT stuff?
Can we hope for them to have got to a position of such influence in time to turn pay negotiations into 'we only need you for the next couple of years anyway and if you don't like where we're at we'll just get some paddy's in to dig our holes and throw some fibre down there instead'?
What about relationship advice Fleccy? Are you putting yourself out there for that?
You seem to have an unhealthy obsession with the CWU Rodders. Not all that is evil is connected to them. I’m sure that you know that in reality this forum is populated by people who want to be told they’re BT shares will make them rich one day and to be reassured that they haven’t actually spunked loads of cash up the wall. That’s why if someone suggests a big turnaround in the future (fttp completion, pensioners all die etc) they’ll be rewarded with lots of likes, whereas if someone suggests the company is fd&ed they’ll be attacked and vilified.
Oh and phatzout, if you’re really setting up for a pay war you may want to review your investment strategy but well done for tipping pff the BT negotiators that you’re being paid well enough now that you don’t really need a rise.
Excellent question and one that the company should be answering. Quite irresponsible to make statements like that and then not explain subsequent change. Inevitably has led to concerns amongst investors (and likely employees too).
It’s not a no-brainer fleccy.
Option 2: rather than keep throwing money at BT, which has repeatedly resulted in increasing paper losses and compounding risk, invest in other businesses that are likely to deliver a better return and spread your risk.
It’s easy to think because BT has fallen so much over time that it has to go up again and hopefully that will prove to be the outcome but that strategy hasn’t worked well for long term holders over the last few years. Will sound harsh but when Rodders suggests you have a strong need to prove yourself right, he’s actually describing your investment strategy. The market has no consideration for satisfying the emotions of it’s players.