Member Info for bluemoon71

More trashy journalism from Guardian, linking Corona to Tullow write downs, which were announced before Corona was issue. Still, any bad news, even if false news, is good for shorters like dbno and Gary.

Tlw probably didnt use any of their hedge in Jan/Feb when oil was 65/55. That means theyve approx 7 months at $57 hedge floor if oil stays low for their 45,000bpod. That rakes us to Oct. If oil still $40 in Q4 and stays there we may have problem in 2021...thats a long way off.

Garydav, youve just commented you didnt think Tlw were hedged. Your agenda is clear...jog on.

Very true Matt. These are torrid times and fear is driving many. Tlw currently priced as going bust or massive debt for equity swap. I dont think we are close to this. Another 12 months at low oil prices maybe. If im wrong I'll lose plenty. Good luck whatever your strategy

Matt, cant argue with your maths. However, there are more levers. Planned capex is $350m so delaying some is an option. I also expect the lowball 75,000 bpd Dorothy put out will be beaten....were at 80-85,000 in Jan. Also actively seeking sales in Kenya and Uganda. Could all go on downside but then maybe not. Im optimistic and still buying. Others may feel differently

....Short term commitments

Rubbish. No one is going to get this company for 800m. Only commitment to payback is $300m in July 2020. Loads of time for macro and inter company issues to be resolved.

60% of 2020 production has hedged floor of $57/bbl so if other 40% at say 45 for full year avg Tlw is c $52/bbl. Manageable for Tlw and Its a lot worse for others

Anyone with publicly displayed stop losses on this at these levels is asking to be robbed.

Strange Tlw sp action today given wider market. Shorts closing? News afoot? Whatever it is it makes a nice change.

Prize for worst shorter of the year goes to.....

Jay111s, we are all guessing as to exactly what assumptions went into the 2020 figures. Given the misses in targets that led to this debacle, personally i think Dorothy lowballed everything. I think we'll hit the fcf. Your welcome to disagree

Too early to be writing off 2020 fcf. Even if Brent stays in low 50s, with their hedge Tlw likely to avg 55 minimum. Add in likely bopd upside vs low ball that Dorothy threw out in Dec i still think its all to play for especially since i dont expect opec to let oil dwell at these prices. Imho

Can't believe im happy we're only down 7% on the day!

BOD have put us in this position. Sacked CEO and then left info vacuum . Bet shorters cant believe their luck. Corporate negligence

I would hope they wouldn't consider a cash call, but having seen this drop from 240 to 34p in 3 months forgive me for contemplating the worst!

This could go anywhere before news guven perfect storm of POO and Corona. Personally just sitting tight. If we avoid cash call this will recover to sensible valuations for lth. IMHO gla

NMC have been temporarily suspended. No one is getting in or out.

Mcap £480m and falling. Wow, ouch and crazy!

Looks like the oil shorters are in full flow too.