Member Info for bluemoon71

I don't want the interim CEO to have a vision, he has one job, refinance 2026 bonds at best price and then get back in his CFO box.

GLA LTH

Maxine isn't long on Tlw.

Maxine isn't short on Tlw

Maxine is a full time trader who hasn't traded Tlw for over 12 months

Maxine posts continuously on Tlw.

Maxine is...?

Sounds like a final,final,final deadline! Opportunity for a new CEO to get off to a flyer or Tlw to sell up and move on.

Not sure there has ever been a genuine interest in buying Tlw. The KOS interest in December was I suspect no more than speculative. Tlw went to to 26p. KOS is down 50% from then too and the good news here is tge algos can only drop Tlw another 13p! One point I agree with Tanker on, at these levels you'll only get a good night's sleep assuming a write off of your holding. Certainly not worth selling at these levels

GLA LTH

Maxine, that's your opinion, it's not a fact. If Kenyan government want to wait until Tlw goes bust then fine, they're in for along wait. Kenya under pressure from their own people to take advantage of oil. Tick,tock...

Kenya don't want Tullow involved? Tough. They are involved and the only owner Legally Tlw are in a very strong position. If Kenya don't want Tlw involved they need to orchestrate a financial deal to get them out. Tlw should sit tight. Let's see who needs the oil to flow more

GLA LTH

Toli, looking forward to the day you call this falling, because every rise you predict fails miserably

Maxine,

As your posting history suggests - you need more than a 400% rise from here to breakeven on your UOG investment.

How did you manage to get it so badly wrong...

Nah, they've been there done that. Shale did reduce,then when oil price went up it came back stronger because they had made lots of cost improvements. OPEC learnt the lesson,which is why they're reluctant to add barrels now.

Not sure who wins at $50/bbl, except the consumer. US shale is unprofitable and Saudi budget is totally screwed. Could happen, but then so could $100/bbl. I think 70-80 is equilibrium with extremes up or down only driven by geopolitical shocks.

I'd concentrate on recovering your huge losses on RKH first Gussy

Good call on the 'sale and leaseback' option, xxnjr. Sort of thing I could see Glencore entertaining

Good questions Super. Assuming Ghana is core, then only feasible short term sale would be Gabon/Ivory Coast volume(12-13 kbopd). Can't see Kenya being option unless seismic shift in government's position. Maybe former would bring in $200-400m but it's buyer's market.

Less palatable option( for shareholders)is what they mean by simplifying capital structure. At moment we have equity and 3 levels of debt securities(26s,Glencore,25s). So simplification could mean moving to one debt type(best case) or it could mean taking out equity for debt. Simplifying type of debt doesn't reduce it by 450m, wiping out shareholders does. Ouch. But who knows how they will square the circle? Uncertain times

GLA LTH

Explain again Gussy how you made your money on RKH...

Gussy

Posted in: RKH

Posts: 21

Price: 38.00

No Opinion

Old days16 Jan 2025 14:47

When this was £5 and DES turned water to wine or was that oil to water.!!! Cost me a small fortune. Average here now of 1.23. Still hoping.!!! GLA

The only certainty about people who predict the Sp is that they'll be as wrong more times than right. In recent days we've had people shouting 0,6p,14p16p, 20p and only yesterday a 'certainty' we'll never see above 17p, as we now sit at 18.75p! Must be a blue moon tonight.

GLA LTH

y11-shx

Posts: 2,713

Price: 17.61

No Opinion

RE: Ratings3 Feb 2025 12:10

I don’t know if it will be 7p or 17p but I do know it won’t be higher and that’s for certain but anything can happen once in a blue moon lol.

Y11, you are correct, you don't know how this will unfold!

GLA LTH

Rahul won't be making much from his shares. He was given 9million options, 3 free,3 at about 26p and 3 at c 50p. So, he'll get his 3million for free but 6 million are at higher price than current sp. He also had to spend £365,000 of his own money to buy shares when he started. They are all losing money too.

Ratings and SP targets mean nothing. In aftermath of very poor production forecast, the MMs can take this where they want for now, especially in the vacuum of no CEO or imminent news. Hanker down or sell up, there are no painless short term options. Next eye on year low of 18.07p

GLA LTH

The 2026 bondholders will be miffed that Tlw has pushed ahead with paying the subordinate 2025 bonds in full without a clear,agreed plan for refinancing the 26s. An aggressive/bold move by Tullow but one that focuses the minds of all involved. Thoughts from our resident JBond welcome.

GLA LTH

2025 bonds have jumped 6% to effectively par. 2026 currently 1% down. In line with RNS saying former will be paid in full and still work to do on refinancing the 26s. Biggest positive from RNS for me