Member Info for bluemoon71

If the takeover was the reason for Rahul's departure, he'll be feeling quite smug now. Volatile time for SP until tax ruling as speculators and investors adjust their holdings

What they've seen is their own SP drop 30% in 2 weeks. Subject to favourable tax ruling, this is good news for Tlw holders

GLA LTH

Whatever is going on, one thing's for sure, KOS PIs are undoubtedly even more miffed than their Tlw counterparts - their stock is down almost 30% since Rahul announcement and over 50% from their mid year position.

GLA LTH

If Tlw looked to refinance it's 2026 bonds in 2025 it would probably need to offer 12-13% yield. Kos could probably achieve 8-9%. So on 1.4B of debt that's a difference of c$60m/ year interest Kos could save on the debt. I don't think that's material enough to make the takeover a necessity. The risk here,for shareholders, is if the bondholders want to hold out for equity to agree to the refinancing. That's our nightmare scenario and one that would go away with the merger, whatever the offer price. A negative outcome to tax arbitration makes the need for a merger or takeover more imperative. On a positive note the 2026 bonds have jumped back over 90%

GLA LTH

GKA LTH

If the MMs can keep this red today, they're very good at their job

GLA LTH

I don't think Kos can get the cash to fund Kenya but they are certainly in a better place to refinance Tlw's bonds with more certainty and at a much better rate. This, I think, is one of the main positives for the two companies combining. Both are focused on fcf and reducing debt and financing the debt is one of their biggest costs

GLA LTH

Kos finished 15% down and is 53% down ytd. Tlw is 32% down ytd. So, who needs who the most? Answers on a postcard.

Kosmos have now put out a comparable statement, shares trading again

DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kosmos Energy Ltd. (“Kosmos” or the “Company”) (NYSE: KOS) notes today’s announcement by Tullow Oil plc (“Tullow”) (LSE: TLW) regarding a potential transaction involving Tullow and Kosmos and confirms that it is in very preliminary discussions with Tullow regarding a possible all-share offer by Kosmos for Tullow.

There can be no certainty that any offer will be made, nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made. Pursuant to Rule 2.5 of the Code, Kosmos reserves the right to vary the form and/or mix of the offer consideration and vary the transaction structure. A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate.

Think people need to calm down. Kosmos shares are down 12% since the rns by Tullow and are temporarily suspended. I suspect they were caught off guard by Tullow rns and they might not react well to it. They're making an opportunistic move because Tlw sp is so low. They won't be going in high, if they go in at all after Tullow announcement

GLA LTH

Any offer/valuation would have to based on knowing the outcome of the Ghana tax arbitration. Not sure how the market set the SP in the interim? Could be anywhere from 20p in adverse findings to 40p+ if ruling positive. Then, if talks collapse...God knows! Could be volatile for a while

GLA LTH

Another shorter,Citadel, has popped their head above the 0.5% threshold and yet the price continues to rise. Someone may know what's going on here,but it ain't me!

GLA LTH

Whilst a very welcome rise, I remain sceptical that we've seen a 20% spike in the SP in the 2 days after a new shorter borrowed around 11 million shares. Worst timing ever? Maybe. A pump before a dump? Maybe. If there is rumour/news that is behind the rise then excellent. I remain a cautiously optimistic LTH. For new potential buyers on the back of the rise...Caveat Emptor!

GLA LTH

Hartree Partners, 0.79%. No historical short in Tlw. Someone obviously smells blood

GLA LTH

Picket increased their short on 5th and 6th on back of Rahul rns. Fun and games not over yet

GLA LTH

Both bonds ticked up today. The 2025 bond has been consistently over 95% and is effectively guaranteed. The 2026 is at 88%, hardly stressed. Your losses on Enq have addled your brain Kraken.

GLA LTH

I don't think the recent rise/fall has anything to do with whether it's the right decision to get rid of him. Some obviously knew of the upcoming announcement and also knew, coming out of the blue as it did, t would have a negative price reaction on the day. It was taken up to crash it down. Nice earner for those in the know. Only time will tell if the market see it as positive or negative.

Strange there's so much pessimism here today, given so many have been calling for Rahul to go. Not even our resident 39p Nostradamus saw this RNS coming. Ghana ruling will no doubt explain all. If it's in Tlw favour, it genuinely represents a base for growth that needed a different type of CEO. If it's negative, then frankly I'm not sure it matters who is CEO. Lot at stake

GLA LTH

I suspect Rahul was just too principled to be successful in getting deals across the line with corrupt government officials in Africa. Takes a certain type. More uncertainty for SP in the interim. If it's not shorters screwing us, it's our own Board!

GLA LTH

Rahul always struck me as an operations type of guy. Good on detail, numbers, technicals with the discipline to get control of costs - all things that were needed when he came in and which,to be fair, he has done an OK job on. He's not a marketeer or charismatic deal maker and maybe, if we are now approaching a growth phase, it is timely he goes. Always a risky period for SP when a CEO goes, let's see what market thinks

GLA LTH

The fact we can rise nearly 20% in a few days with no formal news shows how easily manipulated the Tlw SP is. Whilst the rise is welcome, until the reason is clear, we can just as likely expect it to reverse as for it to hold/push on upwards. News, we need news.

GLA LTH