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Is 10% significant? That's 140 million shares. Average daily trading volume is 5-6 million shares. You tell me...
You can see monthly historical data,but not daily( as far as I'm aware). Therefore, there is no data yet for this July. Basically, short interest jumped from under 4% in May 2022(when SP was close to 60p) to 10% in June 2022 and, +/- 1%, it has stayed at these elevated levels until end of June 2023. Will be interesting to see where it is at end of July(data will be on Euroclear site in early August) but no sign in daily volumes there's been any meaningful reduction yet.
As I've mentioned several times, total shorts can be found here. End of June, 10.15%
https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:6&year=eq:2023&limit=25&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation
I think Shorts have quite an asymmetric risk here now, and gave had since we bottomed at 22p. There's no current value in the SP for Kenya. If it's a positive outcome, doubling of SP is a likely outcome. A negative outcome, but with continued positive news out of Ghana, it's perhaps a journey back to mid 20's. With over 10% shorts at the end of June, I'm not sure if they are brave or foolhardy ?
GLA LTH
The spread looks misleadingly tempting to trade,but you'd do well to make 1% . You'll make more money sitting on your hands for a few months
GLA LTH
It's daylight robbery in all but name. Sadly many PIs never learn, or learn the hard way, after they've lost their shares on a c8-10% spread spike down
GLA LTH
Gmaxwell, make your mind up. This was you yesterday!
"40p by week end, 90p by end of summer and 2 quid by NYE easily."
I don't know why a potential partner wouldn't consider just buying Tullow. At £1 per share, they'd be getting the company for just over £3Billion,taking debt into account. That's 75k+ bopd from Ghana and 470 million bbls in Kenya for another £3.5B capex outlay? I think most shareholders would take £1/share...I certainly would.
GLA LTH
Over an hour and half into trading day and no Automatic buys/sells showing. Algorithms switched off, trading desk IT problems or nothing to see here?
GLA LTH
Good news is Patel retired Elyisium. Bad news is they've been on a spelling course and is back as Blackpool of Gold
GLA LTH
Quite, Super. I bought into Rahul's 5 year plan and always intended to hold until Ghana and Kenya played out. Yes, I'm down on my initial holding since May last year, but I added substantially at 27p(thank you doctordong and fellow shorters) and am now looking forward even more to Ghana and Kenya playing out.
DD and his mate Patel joined here in Feb 2023, let's see if they have the cajones to see Ghana and Kenya play out.
GLA LTH
You know shorters like doctordong are upset and anxious, when they talk incessantly and only talk about the past not the future.
Hold for gold
GLA LTH
Interesting figure 22.5%. It might suggest Tlw also get 22.5%, with main partner getting 55% and overall control. Now that would be a nice outcome
GLA LTH
Total shorts were 10.15% at the end of June. They jumped from around 3.5% to 10% around May 2022, when SP was close to 60p, and +/- 1% ,they've been at that level ever since. As commented in another post, the 2.86% is just those holding over 0.5%
You can find info here:
https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:6&year=eq:2023&limit=25&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation
GLA LTH
Agree on the trend, Star. Was simply pointing out to expect unpredictable volatility given high shorts and low trading volumes.
On fundamentals it should, but there's too much noise to have any confidence in short term. Shorts are still over 10% and with low daily trading volumes MMs can take this where they want to. Recent good news on Jubilee and oil around $80 should provide some downside protection. I'm confident of 6 month Outlook for SP but day to day,literally anything could happen. Look at today's SP action with oil increasing and other oilies up several %.
GLA LTH
All good points SC. I think the partners walking away perhaps leaves me nervous and hence pessimistic on value accretion from Kenya. The yet to be found new partner has a strong negotiating hand. As a LTH I'd be delighted to be wrong on this and for you/Anton to be right
GLA LTH
Anton,the same was said about Uganda. We sold the oil for under $2 per bbl. OK, we were in a more difficult financial position then, but not that different. Our partners have just walked away with nothing from a potental 25% share of your $35B carrot. I think you are overestimating what we will get and maybe I'm being pessimistic. We can both hope for the best for Tullow. We will see soon
GLA LTH
JB, net debt at year end is forecast at $1.7B not 1.4(see July update financial section). With regards Kenya, I don't think they will want any solution that requires them to fund Capex whilst they are focused on debt reduction. I'd be happy to see them sell everything for $1-2 per bbl of resource in ground($450-900M). If they can negotiate a free carry they might keep a small percentage. I don't think they are looking to totally remove debt, but to get it below 1B so refinancing is must cheaper. Things should be much clearer this side of Xmas.
All IMHO
GLA LTH
2nd day running MMs spiked SP down for few minutes on a few thousand shares. If you use Stop Losses, set them carefully.
GLA LTH