Interesting figure 22.5%. It might suggest Tlw also get 22.5%, with main partner getting 55% and overall control. Now that would be a nice outcome
GLA LTH
Total shorts were 10.15% at the end of June. They jumped from around 3.5% to 10% around May 2022, when SP was close to 60p, and +/- 1% ,they've been at that level ever since. As commented in another post, the 2.86% is just those holding over 0.5%
You can find info here:
https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:6&year=eq:2023&limit=25&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation
GLA LTH
Agree on the trend, Star. Was simply pointing out to expect unpredictable volatility given high shorts and low trading volumes.
On fundamentals it should, but there's too much noise to have any confidence in short term. Shorts are still over 10% and with low daily trading volumes MMs can take this where they want to. Recent good news on Jubilee and oil around $80 should provide some downside protection. I'm confident of 6 month Outlook for SP but day to day,literally anything could happen. Look at today's SP action with oil increasing and other oilies up several %.
GLA LTH
All good points SC. I think the partners walking away perhaps leaves me nervous and hence pessimistic on value accretion from Kenya. The yet to be found new partner has a strong negotiating hand. As a LTH I'd be delighted to be wrong on this and for you/Anton to be right
GLA LTH
Anton,the same was said about Uganda. We sold the oil for under $2 per bbl. OK, we were in a more difficult financial position then, but not that different. Our partners have just walked away with nothing from a potental 25% share of your $35B carrot. I think you are overestimating what we will get and maybe I'm being pessimistic. We can both hope for the best for Tullow. We will see soon
GLA LTH
JB, net debt at year end is forecast at $1.7B not 1.4(see July update financial section). With regards Kenya, I don't think they will want any solution that requires them to fund Capex whilst they are focused on debt reduction. I'd be happy to see them sell everything for $1-2 per bbl of resource in ground($450-900M). If they can negotiate a free carry they might keep a small percentage. I don't think they are looking to totally remove debt, but to get it below 1B so refinancing is must cheaper. Things should be much clearer this side of Xmas.
All IMHO
GLA LTH
2nd day running MMs spiked SP down for few minutes on a few thousand shares. If you use Stop Losses, set them carefully.
GLA LTH
Capricorn down 13% today on risk to contingent payments of delayed project. We dodged a bullet with that potential merger
GLA LTH
It's not meaningless at all DD. It shows shorters are just as likely to miss maximising their opportunity as longs are and just as likely to have misplaced reasons for doing so. Keep highlighting the calculation Anton
GLA LTH
Agree Bailiff, Bid showing as 32.5 but was offered 33.1 for 200,000 shares. MMs want your shares...hold for gold
GKA LTH
There were over 140 million shares on loan in June. Whilst I'm not expecting a short squeeze, I am expecting a steady rise in coming quarter as shorts decide whether to double down or go with the positive news flow
GLA LTH
Patel, shorters or holders with contrarian/pessimistic outlooks are welcome here as far as I'm concerned. Liars and cowards are not. Time to move on from Elyisium to your next reincarnation...try and spell your next username right this time!
GLA LTH
Slater/DD, I can't help you with your childish obsession with Anton/Adie nor with your ability to only look backwards. However I can help you with some basic maths. A '+' sign doesn't convey an upper limit, so 61,70,80 or Shaw's infamous 90p by 3pm are all covered by 60p+ .
GLA LTH
Spot on Jet. Although progress has seemed painfully slow, Rahul has delivered/over delivered on all his timelines. The Jubilee news the last few days in the first significant catalyst being crystallised. If oil price holds up, this in itself should be enough to edge the SP towards 40p. Thereafter, positive news on Ghana gas deal( hopefully with some conciliatory words on the tax dispute) should see 12 month highs and a positive outcome on Kenya should then see 60p+.
Traders will have their fun in the meantime but after waiting 3 years, now is not a time to sell.
GLA LTH
From the same thread. Not sure how official it is but indicates approval by EPRA???
'I don't think the Indians are wavering cos its not yet in their hands. FID report just left EPRA after approval, its going to Parliament for approval before President can assent. Then Tullow can sell onto to India on cabinet approval. Just following Petroleum Law timelines.'
You'd think Patel would learn to spell 'Elysium' before their reincarnation. The coward and liar is back in our midst.
GLA LTH
MMs are going to bounce the SP up/down to extract most value/shares from PIs. Best way to make money in next 3-6 months? Hold your shares and sit on your hands!
Lovely Jubily.
GLA LTH
Will be interesting to see how market reacts to this. It's been well telegraphed news for a while, with little value seemingly to have been reflected in the SP. Maybe market will need to see actual flow rate data before getting excited. That said it's clearly good news to see it commissioned and with oil price jump yesterday, it will hopefully help us crash through the 30p glass ceiling we've been struggling with the last few weeks.
GLA LTH
Trouble at t'mill in Libya
#Libya’s Sharara oil field said to halt production due to protests