Member Info for Blue83

Hey Dribbles, this company supplies the most outstanding quality of tests available with machines that will break localised treatment through to a new league whereas the sticking plaster, LFT, has Boris this far, but wouldn't it have been so much better if the clinical needs had been approached with some integrity without self interest? You got to see that mate. Thanks for your research and contributions, outstanding, it has been a long day, time for a rest now perhaps?

Death isn't the best measure of significance of Covid is it?

The medical profession talk about the incidental damage Covid 19 can cause to other aspects bodily health - list from wikipedia:

Long COVID can affect nearly every organ system, with sequelae including respiratory system disorders, nervous system and neurocognitive disorders, mental health disorders, metabolic disorders, cardiovascular disorders, gastrointestinal disorders, malaise, fatigue, musculoskeletal pain, and anemia.[6] A wide range of symptoms are commonly reported, including fatigue, headaches, shortness of breath, anosmia (loss of smell), parosmia (distorted smell), muscle weakness, low fever and cognitive dysfunction.[7]

So none of these impacts are measured in ONS statistics and all would have less impactful with accurate initial tests for Covid. There must also be a more forceful benefit to public health in the clearer identification of NEGATIVE cases with high quality specific tests particularly those with significant (non covid) disease. Imagine running a chemotherapy unit without PCR!

Anyway, if we must stoop so low to focus just on numbers of fatalities in our lively debate with Mr Dribbles, isn't it a shame that there is no account possible of the lives SAVED by PCR tests and an estimate of the numbers that might have been saved with earlier diagnosis with PCR.

A proper localised solution for PCR testing makes sense with inevitability of new variants and could, with Novacyt & others, modernise the mixed approach taken before Covid to the range of respiratory diseases that have been taken as endemic for generations.

Crackerjack pencil & pen

Thinking about this, its not really the Covid deaths that are at issue. It is the ability of every hospital or clinic to able to admit any patient with best of class knowledge of their condition be that any variant of covid, common colds, flu, rsv or other respiratory disease. They don't need a stop/go test to show if an admission has got some sort of covid or infection, it is about planning for a new future by dealing with current needs to detect covid & extending them so the health service wouldn't be vulnerable to a whole range of possible conditions including the "bullets" that the west was fortunate to dodge like SARs, avian flu, & MERS. Hence its the Poidster point about the potential for the best quality, locally conducted test technology as opposed to reliance on central laboratories or less than perfect single focus mass testing devices.

Mr Dribbles posted some numbers at 04.56 this morning from the Office for National Statistics that I looked into using the links he helpfully provided. He might have been up a bit too early as his numbers were on the low side. These are what I found to reveal "the shocking truth" as he described it:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths

Latest ONS comment:

There were 1,023 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the latest week (ending 7 January 2022), accounting for 7.4% of all deaths in the UK. The number of deaths registered in the latest two weeks were affected by the Christmas, Boxing Day and New Year's Bank Holidays, and so trends between this week and the previous week should be treated with caution.

If the link works you can download number in xls otherwise try to link Mr Dribbles provides and search for death

Total deaths reported since WE 13 March 2020 was 174,305
Highest week 17-Apr-20
Lowest week 13-Mar-20
Average per week over the 96 week period 1,815

Numbers above represent a human life.
Each number recorded is also a family and a tragedy.
Long covid impact is not counted.

Source: Office for National Statistics

Teresa May didn't believe in it & did her very best to get through motions without intention to get the job done. Her efforts were a study obfuscation beyond Yes Minister and delighted Europe & remainers confirming Brexit was too difficult and unworthwhile to try.

the lack of investment by directors stands out, you can't fake that. belief shows but there is something suppressing it, government blocking tests with desktop review, lack of plan, poor plan, undisclosed informal agreement gone wrong with DHSC, enquiry, who knows whatever it is, the Poidster perspective of excellent products hasn't induced the board to invest somehow.

I think it hasn't been bought out because the market hates the whole sector, as well as NCYT in particular after its over hype of DHSC & vacuous response to being ripped off.

I'm surprised you are still at that average in Hans Gruber, I took it that you'd have profits to offset. Sorry you bought on the day of the announcement in April & of course, GM knew months before, the payment on 24 February could not have been arranged without formal acknowledgement of the dispute that started when payments stopped. What is the authorisation period for payments by the DHSC? 7 or 10 days plus weekends, two weeks? If payment is recorded in the cash book on 24 Feb, negotiations must have been underway this time last year & at the same time GM prepared RNS issued 28 Jan.

My only good move was ditching 30% at 475p. I took the hit on another third & fear I have bungled the rest now. I'd guess the comment forced out of them will not have much result after exceptionals, no news on DHSC, no proper plan or explanation or strategy. They are a diagnostics company with 8 of 11 tests unexpectedly blocked from sale in desktop review. You'd think they might explain the significance of European sales & any plans to the extent they have them in the USA. The strategy of small acquisitions without diversification may also have put buyers off, like someone said, they'd have to sack the lot of them.

Top slicing perhaps is a good description. I try to think of it as capital protection & risk aversion. They have many invetments and prospects. Everyone hopes for more but there is risk on results so why not put 200p they are sure of in the bank now and let a smaller amount ride the announcement? I try to get myself to do the same, but didn't manage to do it with RENX, POLX or NCYT when I was convinced they would rise.

ugh

I think that is right.

Any company doing the right thing has been abused in order to buy Chinese tests that are a) cheap, b) in sure supply and I am afraid, c) accurate above certain thresholds so numbers of positives are understated & d) perhaps because the government has a vested interest in buying Chinese to curry favour, avoid a threat regarding other trade or travel arrangement with China or perhaps to receive a bride or kickback.

It is IMO regrettable that Colin King has resigned at ODX today. He was always such a forthright advocate of the RTC, the test that was held up for so long in accreditation and local manufacturing in Scotland. Perhaps, his resignation is has echoes of Mullis's departure and the bad feeling expressed by Abingdon Health - a defeat/destruction of long established leaders in the UK diagnostics industry.

Agree, we'd to check with BMD what the ruse behind this is if there is one. & perhaps there isn't one once, twice, thrice bitten makes scepticism wise

The danger is taking the hypothetical assumptions you can see and ignoring unpleasant risks.

Illustrative example
How can Polarean technology NOT be worth the moon? It is fantastic. Calculation of what machines can be made for & how many can be sold were far too easy to focus on rather than approval risk as it is proven so safe. Nevertheless it generated a 50% LOSS on FDA decision day for reasons no one can be sure of! The directors backed their story post crash showing how committed they were to it but nevertheless the SP remains 50% down on pre result price. Perhaps competitors lobbied against them or we've taken an over hyped view?

This is just an example of the risk a pre result SP carries. SNG shows the risk in post results experience, who would have thought such a therapy would still be unavailable by now nor that RM would have had to be so shrewd to get to this point?

Marik - I suggest you keep all those figures you calculate and HALVE them all for unknown risks, QUARTER those that are longer out.

I am contributing this as I have made myself sell some against results day downside risk. I planned to sell 15% after doing maths of on the downside but chickened out to sell only 6% earlier this week in expectation of the SP fading as others do the same on a Friday before a possible announcement Monday.

Good luck all

& they may not be acquiring on their behalf so it may not be just the landscape of their contacts but combined with say, a big pharma linked in public/private partnership with ACTIV.

I am wondering if they were acquiring on their own behalf why they wouldn't raise the ceiling for what they would pay the closer results come & be sure to be holding on announcement

Just wondering why isn't Polygon under more pressure have its stake building done before results?

I can understand it is a price criterion - liked to not paying more than 200p or equivalent of Mcap £400m. Does that imply buying on behalf of a client I wonder?

Its seems like a lazy a way to free people up not to confirm they are positive so figures go down to suit the government.

wet cabbage in a new mansion

It is remarkable how open BMD is with inside information & if he has it, so do many other insider traders.

I took the lack of governance as a lesson and sold my shares, PIs are open to being played whatever the results are.

GLA & thanks for your openness BMD

SO's selling rate has halved so presumably he is after 50p.

Delaying news may be a temptation in limited circumstances but holding off for a length of time would breach the duty of utmost good faith directors have to shareholders (including the seller) without preference in company law . Not that AIM is the best for examples of the utmost good faith directors should show to shareholders.

The best thing would be to release great news & have demand to clear SO. Fingers crossed for all.

Ajan won't have to sell his stake in Novacyt, as he didn't have one.

However, companies house show he was appointed back in July 21 as a director to Cell Therapy Limited a company once under the control of Sir John Evans, the welsh university professor & biotech entrepreneur, who was involved with the origin of Primer Design group 15 years ago.

The other director of Cell Therapy Limited is a company called Celixir PLC. Ajan was a appointed director of Celixir Limited from Dec 2016 at the same time as Lord Digby Jones. In this group I have found Sir John Evans & the former first minister of Wales Rt Hon Rhodri Morgan.

Ajan was also a director of Celixir Innovations Limited so he is well connected with his technical expertise, asked to join Novacyt & switched back to base in July this year - i.e. so he worked 6 month notice & departs not thinned out by DA in my opinion.

I sympathise with the frustration & don't agree with the "jog on" bit. Whatever the BoD have had done, at the present time, they must be even more perplexed than we are, being diagnostics specialists, by a govt in midst of a surge, calling for more tests, while their voice in the BBC is airing the doing away with reliable tests.

Perhaps Mullis heard what was coming.

They may have had different motivation over the past year but at this point in time I'd guess that they can not give much guidance because they are uncertain about what to expect.

The desktop review, its introduction & (mis)administration may make sense but I didn't get it. The course of recent events makes it even more inappropriate in my view.

What would a world leading business be able to comment when they have been granted permission to continue trading one or two of their tests on a TEMPORARY basis while demand rages for the expertise they have?

"We are unable to predict what regulatory requirements will be placed on our tests in the UK over the next 6 months"

"A new variant of concern has emerged approximately every 6 months"

"The regulatory environment in the UK is too unstable and immature to meet diagnostic needs."

"We do not know what to expect".

Perhaps silence is the best comment they can make.