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I have an opposite and rather cynical perspective based on being a LTH in AGL, along the lines, OMG! & on no! how the hell did Theranos get approved?

I am thinking about this as the de nova application POLX submitted a year ago seemed to be promising according to its directors (& backed up by their actions) right up to the decision date when it was given additional information requirements (perhaps another 6-12 month wait for the next decision). I wonder whether they were lobbied against if all the communications directors have to go on gave them reason to believe it would be approved & further confidence to invest heavily the days after it was kicked into the long grass.

American analysts of medical stocks seem to see lobbying of the FDA as fair game - is that how Theranos was approved. My fear is that AGL won't be approved unless they are on top of these considerations (& corrupt enough for the FDA).

Lets face it, AZN vaccines may still not be approved in the USA & that isn't because they don't work!

Lets hope that the inventory built up are government request can be put to use, the nightmare would be, as before, that the DHSC won't buy it because of procurement politics. They should pay for PCRs now & not cry wolf again.

From RNS in Sept
The Company is also taking an exceptional one-off cost of £28.9m to write down inventory that the Company had built in anticipation of further DHSC demand and to terminate supply commitments with third parties in respect of this supply that are no longer required. This inventory build was Novacyt's direct response to support the UK Government's call for UK manufacturers to build manufacturing capacity and supply chain flexibility in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and was based on likely demand indicated by DHSC. The Company will continue to look for ways to use this inventory

Appreciate your post crl & empathise.

It felt the same when SNG was down to low 30ps as Acacia/Link sold down Woodford's holding & I managed to conjure up enough confidence to buy. I am going to try to do the same again in this situation & reweighed investment reasons. Like you say, I'd guess releasing share -boosting data into a sell-off would **** the BoD off.

Close being 7.69% or 13,863,075 still held on 3 Dec & being sold at about 1 million per week so another 9 million to go now at that rate until end of Feb unless he does a deal.

clr - agree co-ordinated buying in too

Twice a day a sale of 50,000 goes through some days more plus for 1 million a week if Steven Oliveira clears in 12 weeks.

On one hand, it is an ideal scenario to buy but what don't we know? I wonder.

In the event that it is all okay, I wonder what I would do in the face of this sell off if I were the BoD. I would be obliged to release market sensitive information as soon as it became available, but it seems to me that there is no end of procrastination possible in finalising interpretation of trial data. Would we hurry to release data only for the SP to be flattened by an accelerated sell off or would we allow selling off to carry on until results were as finalised as they possibly could be? (i.e. perhaps released after the sell off finished if trail data finalisation happened that way)

Lets hope for a restatement!
You'd have thought a high margin business would be what the restructuring aimed at, instead CPI have to find 12m profit from somewhere to backfill their profitability going forward

Volume at close 2.6m

500,000 buy 88p at 09.50.35

Is Grail big/powerful enough to lobby the FDA against approving AGL?

The FDA working hardly seem even handed.

The drop may be overdone but he was an Exec & the company has to have regional structure so its a fiefdom issue, strong local control abused by boss, even if the quantum was small it puts a question of what else was run to matey's agenda - how will succession go if his domain is staffed by his proteges & sidekicks

I don't see that they have even progressed to arbitration yet, a year on. The contract set up a process so a dispute could be resolved & was a clear basis for legal action but GM was unable to use it. Perhaps they don't care about their duty to plebs in comparison to offending the DHSC. The legal guy taken after the mess was established has moved on. Who knows what happened, perhaps someone led the DHSC to believe something that was not in the contract or perhaps they can claim that however spuriously. It isn't just money, there is reputational damage of being a mismanaged outfit in a governance mess.

68 retweets so far & no need for the DHSC to settle the dispute without being pushed for the best part of another year

So just roughly lets say he's selling 1m per week from mid Nov, that would be roughly yielding cash to him of 950k, 850k, 750, 650k, 600k, 550k = 4.350m to now & say 12wks x 1m pw at 30p = 3.6m more. There diminishing return ought to tell at some point even if it is in profit.

Good point.

If SO is selling at 1m per week, that is 200k per day or a tenth or less of trading volume on an average day.

Just been looking at the RNSs issued Friday 19 Nov and 10 working days later on Friday 3 Dec .

On 19 Nov - start 9.91% or 17,869,419 shares had been reduced by 1.08% or 1,947,424 to leave 8.83% or 15,921,995
On 3 Dec - start 8.83% or 15,921,995 shares reduced by 1.14% or 2,055,124 to leave 7.69% or 13,863,073

At that rate the next RNS might be issued to report up to this Friday, 17 Dec 10 working days after the last one a reduction of 2m or 1.19% leaving 11.9m still held or 6.5% and another 12 weeks selling at 1m per week.

The SP on 8 Nov was 90p, 19 Nov 70p, 3 Dec 60p & 54p now.

What will 12 more weeks of selling do to SP? No wonder the CEO looked glum, 30s must be on the cards. Where are the new white knights?

IMO (often wrong!) Free Association Books won't be selling. It is a company that appointed what seems to be Trev's great grandsons as Directors last months, having appointed his grandson before that & what seems to be his daughter in law ten years ago to preside over an investment company jointly with his wife. The RNS is because Trev resigned as a director when the great grandsons were appointed as directors.

The business could not have bought the BRH shares it did, even at 18p, without resources being loaned to it. No loans are registered with charges over assets so, what is this? Its a way for Trev to buy shares through the family company for benefit of its shareholders (names not known, but lets guess its his lot) with some outsider (i.eTrev) financing it. I seems like a way for him to allow them to have a slice of the BRH opportunity that he expects. He might have bought the shares himself and ended up with a capital gain to sort out before passing net proceeds to them. His estate would have been higher for the capital gain on the shares so I imagine he decided to pass the loan on instead & let them deal with the gain. i.e. IMO it is a vote of confidence in BRH until/unless we find him or FAB selling shares.

Thanks for the post FatherTed

I agree about following what Clever Trevor does and how odd it is that Free Association Books with £302k net assets in June 2020 could find £810k to invest in Aug 21 . Trevor has only resigned as a director from FAB.

There are no charges registered in FAB so someone has lent FAB £500m+ for them to buy shares with all the gain on the shares going to FAB.

There is no detail on who controls FAB. It was once a publisher but became an investment manager with Trev's wife (?) - a Mrs E A Brown (b1946) as director with Ms N Vinall (b 1967) followed in 2018 by Edward Felix Brown (b1981) & just recently a couple more of them Alex Nicholas Vinall Brown (b2002) & Max Christopher Vinall Brown(b2003).

So looks to be the Brown family investment company Mrs Trevor's wife, their daughter in law N Vinall(b1967) , grandson Edward Felix Brown(b1981) & great grandsons ANVB & MCVB (b2002&2003).

So, my impression is that it REALLY is just that Trevor has resigned as a director, he's probably lent the business dosh to buy the shares but it is part of of an inheritance scheme in expectation of a gain on BRH shares, rather than him up to his tricks at the expense of LTHs again.

Please do your own research & come to your own conclusions, I am far too often wrong.

GLA

There is no telling who sold how much when.

I wonder whether the FDA is lobbied against POLX when listening at 28.44 to Randy Barron talk about some new process turned down by FDA after lobbying by competitors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfRToHti858